Hey,
So I'm just wondering what your opinions are on finding value for a Lay The Draw strategy? Mainly what would you be looking for when selecting matches? Difference in abilities, average goals per game, average time of goals scored, injuries, etc and where would you want to put your entry/exit bets? enter at the start of a match or let the odds come in and enter when the odds reach a certain point as long as the scoreline is level and would you exit at specific odds like 2.0 or at a different point?
I'm thinking of trading only games with huge liquidity to add larger amounts of P/L with my horse scalping which brings smaller profits and I'll use Soccer Mystic to find where the best value points are but I'm thinking I may let the draw steam to 30 mins inplay while watching the game and if I feel there are going to be goals then I'll enter the trade and I'll either exit for a profit after a goal or I'll exit at around evens or where I feel uncomfortable if they don't look like scoring. So by letting the odds come in, I should secure bigger profits to counter the losses. What are your thoughts on finding value in Lay The Draw?
Question on finding value in Lay The Draw
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Michael5482
- Posts: 1252
- Joined: Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:11 pm
Games with stronger home favs where there's a higher probability in goals whether that be xG or average goals or odds would be worth a look into.ija34 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 13, 2023 7:31 amHey,
So I'm just wondering what your opinions are on finding value for a Lay The Draw strategy? Mainly what would you be looking for when selecting matches? Difference in abilities, average goals per game, average time of goals scored, injuries, etc and where would you want to put your entry/exit bets? enter at the start of a match or let the odds come in and enter when the odds reach a certain point as long as the scoreline is level and would you exit at specific odds like 2.0 or at a different point?
I'm thinking of trading only games with huge liquidity to add larger amounts of P/L with my horse scalping which brings smaller profits and I'll use Soccer Mystic to find where the best value points are but I'm thinking I may let the draw steam to 30 mins inplay while watching the game and if I feel there are going to be goals then I'll enter the trade and I'll either exit for a profit after a goal or I'll exit at around evens or where I feel uncomfortable if they don't look like scoring. So by letting the odds come in, I should secure bigger profits to counter the losses. What are your thoughts on finding value in Lay The Draw?
Marry it up with in play stats/play and look beyond 0-0 just because a game is 1-1 doesn't mean they won't be anymore goals. Most lay the draw stuff I seems to revolves around 0-0 with fixed entry/exits and is all very rigid so be a bit more dynamic in your approach.
Obviously there's other factors like crowd (a crowd can tell you a lot about a game), game motivation (do they need a win for example), team behavior what do they do when they equalise or concede do they sit back, go for the win or buckle for example.
Yeah I agree with the 0-0. I'd still bet at higher draws if I think theres going to be a goal and plenty of time left. As It gets closer to the end, I may still enter but for a lesser stake. I'd stake depending on risk I think.Michael5482 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 13, 2023 4:02 pmGames with stronger home favs where there's a higher probability in goals whether that be xG or average goals or odds would be worth a look into.ija34 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 13, 2023 7:31 amHey,
So I'm just wondering what your opinions are on finding value for a Lay The Draw strategy? Mainly what would you be looking for when selecting matches? Difference in abilities, average goals per game, average time of goals scored, injuries, etc and where would you want to put your entry/exit bets? enter at the start of a match or let the odds come in and enter when the odds reach a certain point as long as the scoreline is level and would you exit at specific odds like 2.0 or at a different point?
I'm thinking of trading only games with huge liquidity to add larger amounts of P/L with my horse scalping which brings smaller profits and I'll use Soccer Mystic to find where the best value points are but I'm thinking I may let the draw steam to 30 mins inplay while watching the game and if I feel there are going to be goals then I'll enter the trade and I'll either exit for a profit after a goal or I'll exit at around evens or where I feel uncomfortable if they don't look like scoring. So by letting the odds come in, I should secure bigger profits to counter the losses. What are your thoughts on finding value in Lay The Draw?
Marry it up with in play stats/play and look beyond 0-0 just because a game is 1-1 doesn't mean they won't be anymore goals. Most lay the draw stuff I seems to revolves around 0-0 with fixed entry/exits and is all very rigid so be a bit more dynamic in your approach.
Obviously there's other factors like crowd (a crowd can tell you a lot about a game), game motivation (do they need a win for example), team behavior what do they do when they equalise or concede do they sit back, go for the win or buckle for example.
Not necessarily in Lay the Draw. I'd agree with Scalping but Lay the Draw would work better if the price is low and the chance of another goal is high.So if you don't think another goal is coming as the signs don't point to it then you wouldn't Lay just because the price is less than evens which would more than likely be when there's less than 15 mins of play remaining as the prices shoots down towards the end of a match. It's about finding value but when the occasion calls for it.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
It's about finding value full stop, there is nothing else.
Tbh any match at anytime can be mispriced it doesn't have to be low odds this and high odds that. And if you're looking for a move (which still needs net value) then the difficult part is knowing where the market will move to if X happens or doesn't happen in the next Y minutes vs how likely you feel that event is. Gaining 10 ticks vs losing 1 is no good if it only happens 1/10 times, you've got to do it 1.1/10 times.
Kai knows his stuff ija, be wary of starting replies to him with "Not necessarily...."
It sounds like you are saying that you should only be focusing on the odds and not the situation though unless I am misinterpreting what you are saying. The best value for Lay the Draw would be laying at 1.01 but we all know that you would very rarely get a win so to find value, you need to place your bet when the odds are lower but the chance of a goal is higher than what the lay odds are stating, so to do this you also need to analyse the match as well as the markets.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Sep 14, 2023 6:17 pmIt's about finding value full stop, there is nothing else.
Tbh any match at anytime can be mispriced it doesn't have to be low odds this and high odds that. And if you're looking for a move (which still needs net value) then the difficult part is knowing where the market will move to if X happens or doesn't happen in the next Y minutes vs how likely you feel that event is. Gaining 10 ticks vs losing 1 is no good if it only happens 1/10 times, you've got to do it 1.1/10 times.
Kai knows his stuff ija, be wary of starting replies to him with "Not necessarily...."
Similarly, to find value scalping on horse racing, you would probably want to scalp crossover points when you think an horse is going to drift past one. For this, you would need to analyse the market as well as look for indicators on the live stream.
You mean make judgements based on the odds and volumes coming in?
Got a question actually about book percentage, I was scalping the other day and I thought basically if the back book percentage was high then the runner is being heavily backed which should bring the price in so I entered the market but the price went in the opposite direction. I've noticed this in quite a few other runners as well. Have I got this wrong or is there a reason this happens?