Lay the draw, exit or stay in? - Bayern vs Leverkusen

[ija34]

So I was analysing the bayern munich vs leverkusen game after it finished and was thinking about where my entry and exit points would or should have been so Bayern scored an early goal and then Leverkusen equalised around 24 mins. This would have put me in a good position to enter my trade between 30-45 mins.

So with the entry position open, there were no goals until 86th minute when Bayern went one up although it would have been past my advised exit point. What would you have done in this situation, traded out early for a small loss, waited for the goal and traded out at 2-1 for a win or risked it and ended up losing as it ended 2-2?

Obviously my system says I should have exited for a loss at a specific time or odds but just interested in seeing how you would deal with a game like this?

[FTA]

Hey,

It depends on your system, but we leave here a few suggestions for you:

1.Exiting the trade with a loss is a wrong approach in our opinion. There are a lot of late goals out there and also, a goal in the late stages of the match will bring you a much higher profit than a goal in the early stages.

2. If you are in profit, of course you should hedge your position. But yes, it depends when you do that. As we mentioned before, there are a lot of late goals and if the score is 2-1 in the 88' min, we do recommend you to exit the trade there. ROI should be ok at that time and an equalizer will ruin your profit and bring you almost 100% loss at that stage.

3. Watch the match live.

Cheers!

[sionascaig]

Not sure what your system is however:

- if you were trading the game whilst watching it then you enter the market when you think you can get value and exit it when that value realised based on what you see / think will happen.

- if its a generalised system then looking at one game really doesn't get you very far as presumably your match selection criteria and entry / exit points will all be based on expectations over many games and that analysis should also indicate the entry and exit points/times.

==> No point looking at one individual game, but should add the data to your model..

[ija34]

Not sure what your system is however:

- if you were trading the game whilst watching it then you enter the market when you think you can get value and exit it when that value realised based on what you see / think will happen.

- if its a generalised system then looking at one game really doesn't get you very far as presumably your match selection criteria and entry / exit points will all be based on expectations over many games and that analysis should also indicate the entry and exit points/times.

==> No point looking at one individual game, but should add the data to your model..

Mostly I'm trying to determine how I would have limited the loss on a match like this. I haven't seen the match but I've basically read post match analysis which says that Bayern should have won this match with how they was playing and was mostly bad luck that they didn't win. I get your point though and more than likely this game would have been a lost trade but doesn't mean that the system won't work over a thousand trades.

[Anbell]

Hey,

It depends on your system, but we leave here a few suggestions for you:

1.Exiting the trade with a loss is a wrong approach in our opinion. There are a lot of late goals out there and also, a goal in the late stages of the match will bring you a much higher profit than a goal in the early stages.

2. If you are in profit, of course you should hedge your position. But yes, it depends when you do that. As we mentioned before, there are a lot of late goals and if the score is 2-1 in the 88' min, we do recommend you to exit the trade there. ROI should be ok at that time and an equalizer will ruin your profit and bring you almost 100% loss at that stage.

3. Watch the match live.

Cheers!

I don't trade football, but you never mentioned price anywhere. Price is the only thing that matters!

[ija34]

Hey,

It depends on your system, but we leave here a few suggestions for you:

1.Exiting the trade with a loss is a wrong approach in our opinion. There are a lot of late goals out there and also, a goal in the late stages of the match will bring you a much higher profit than a goal in the early stages.

2. If you are in profit, of course you should hedge your position. But yes, it depends when you do that. As we mentioned before, there are a lot of late goals and if the score is 2-1 in the 88' min, we do recommend you to exit the trade there. ROI should be ok at that time and an equalizer will ruin your profit and bring you almost 100% loss at that stage.

3. Watch the match live.

Cheers!

Thanks for the advice, I will be watching the match live as having access to the live stream is part of my selection process. The Bayern game itself I wouldn't have actually been trading anyway as I had to set off to work at 20:30 which is just when the 2nd half would have started so I also include an appropriate trading time/day in my selection process.

I see your point about not exiting for a loss, games with late winners would be massively profitable but would games that end 0-0 not wipe out all my profits?

[ija34]

I don't trade football, but you never mentioned price anywhere. Price is the only thing that matters!

I agree, price is important which is why I don't enter the trade at the start of the match. My minimum match time for entry is 30 mins but this all depends on IP analysis. I couldn't say an exact price though as it will vary. I check Soccer Mystic to determine what the price will be at different times and decide on a possible entry point but this could change IP due to goals, red cards, etc.

The goal for the system is to enter at a price as low as possible and then exit as high as possible so not necessarily immediately after a goal.

[Anbell]

I don't trade football, but you never mentioned price anywhere. Price is the only thing that matters!

I agree, price is important which is why I don't enter the trade at the start of the match. My minimum match time for entry is 30 mins but this all depends on IP analysis. I couldn't say an exact price though as it will vary. I check Soccer Mystic to determine what the price will be at different times and decide on a possible entry point but this could change IP due to goals, red cards, etc.

The goal for the system is to enter at a price as low as possible and then exit as high as possible so not necessarily immediately after a goal.

ok great.

What is The System?

[ShaunWhite]

Hey,

It depends on your system, but we leave here a few suggestions for you:

1.Exiting the trade with a loss is a wrong approach in our opinion.

2. If you are in profit, of course you should hedge your position.

An exit for a loss and exiting if you're in profit requires the same logic as they're both the same (either backs or lays) and are either value bets or not. Your personal position as nothing to do with what the market is going to do or whether or not the prevailing price is value.

Seeing trading as opens and closes is flawed. It's a continual buy/hold/sell decision loop and again, aside from liability considerations, prior decisions aren't relevent.

"Trading" is nothing more than a series of individual bets and betting maths says you need value to make money. I'm sure you know that but associating value with being up or down isn't logical.

.... Unless of course you're trying to reduce your variance, but you'll need an edge in the first place to afford those potentially -EV bets. And if you've got a proven edge, then why would variance bother you? .

[ShaunWhite]

That's not supposed to be an attack FTA it's just that I don't see a bet made 1s ago as being any different to one placed a year ago. But because they're in the same market people do. Then again that's a quant traders view and if you sit at your desk it's not so easy to see beyond beyond the pl you're seeing.

[ija34]

That's not supposed to be an attack FTA it's just that I don't see a bet made 1s ago as being any different to one placed a year ago. But because they're in the same market people do. Then again that's a quant traders view and if you sit at your desk it's not so easy to see beyond beyond the pl you're seeing.

Y'all are talking about trader logic and I'm just sat here thinking well why does it need to be the draw? Maybe I can lay the current fave in the 2nd half. Needless to say I've quickly put together a bot for testing Makes sense though, why not lay at the lowest odds on any selection so if the fave is winning by 2 goals and the opposition scores, that would also leave me in a good position to trade out most of the time (theoretically).

[ShaunWhite]

I'm just sat here thinking well why does it need to be the draw?

Maybe I can lay the current fave in the 2nd half.

First sentence good, 2nd sentence you fell back into the same trap. Ie picking a single selection or scenario first rather than simply looking for opportunity anywhere and any time. Your model needs to produce probabilities which you then compare with the market.

[Kai]

That's not supposed to be an attack FTA

Maybe it should have been, since it's blatant marketing disguised as trading advice.

FTA just wants to sell you their system for €999.

[ija34]

I'm just sat here thinking well why does it need to be the draw?

Maybe I can lay the current fave in the 2nd half.

First sentence good, 2nd sentence you fell back into the same trap. Ie picking a single selection or scenario first rather than simply looking for opportunity anywhere and any time. Your model needs to produce probabilities which you then compare with the market.

How would you produce accurate probabilities though? This is problem with Football, it's a sport where literally anything can happen. So your model could get everything right, predict that something is going to happen, tell you it's the right time to enter a trade because of the current price so you enter and yet the completely opposite happens. Hence having appropriate exit plans, there's absolutely no avoiding losses, we all know that but I think the long-term profit comes from getting the entry and exit points right but is it possible to set and follow rules for entry/exits and be profitable long-term without needing to adjust the rules inplay? Because this is the time emotion sets in and you can make the wrong decision.

[sionascaig]

How would you produce accurate probabilities though?

Have you played around with soccer mystic (on BA) yet... that will generate expected probabilities and compare with market under various scenarios,

Peter has (at least one) good video on how to use it somewhere.