Not expecting everyone will reveal... or even be truthful! But Just wondering a show of hands who here is:
A) Fulltime trader (earning similar or more than old day job!)
B) Profitable, but not fulltime
Just curious really, some folks seem to ''get it'' quickly. Others seem to have been at it years and not even come close. I think a quote I like that applies is:
"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results."
Unfortunately, I am insane.
Who here is profitable?
There are lots of profitable people here, but they all took time to get there and did it in their own way.
You would need at least one annual cycle to fully understand the markets I reckon. People are often in a rush to get somewhere quickly and it's very rare to achieve that.
You would need at least one annual cycle to fully understand the markets I reckon. People are often in a rush to get somewhere quickly and it's very rare to achieve that.
What's insanity is believing you've gained sufficient knowledge and experience about yourself and the market to profit after 12 days
Not sure I can simplify this concept more, I can only complicate it further.
You learn about yourself through market experience and if you've learned enough you will profit. If not, somebody else will.
But yes, I think you hit the nail on the head there with the quote, even if by accident. That's pretty much what most people do, the same things over and over on different markets and sports but never really changing their methodology and mindset. It usually takes 12 days/weeks/months/years/lifetimes to realize this, depending on your level of stubbornness and the size of your ego.
The market is an excellent teacher if you're not too stubborn to learn or too egotistical to want to learn. Once markets settle, your tuition fees go straight into your teachers' pockets. But the main issue is people don't want to learn how to profit, they just want to profit. But I don't see what's so special about them that they feel so entitled to profit they don't deserve.
Realize this and you are already ahead of most people.
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jamesedwards
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viewtopic.php?f=2&t=26759&hilit=pollFugazi wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2024 10:36 pmNot expecting everyone will reveal... or even be truthful! But Just wondering a show of hands who here is:
A) Fulltime trader (earning similar or more than old day job!)
B) Profitable, but not fulltime
Just curious really, some folks seem to ''get it'' quickly. Others seem to have been at it years and not even come close. I think a quote I like that applies is:
"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results."
Unfortunately, I am insane.
Check out the poll from a year ago.
Not many people owning up to making a loss
, but you can see there's plenty on here making a full-time return from trading.As I've mentioned before, I used to be profitable at poker. I know what it takes. Doesn't mean I can't be frustrated anyway in the meantime... or be convinced I've figured out the winning strategy. Everyone thinks they have made it 1000 times over before they finally do. Anyone that doesn't admit they prematurely thought they had a winning strategy at some point is a liar...
I find by reading the forums a lot of people can't help but accidently reveal parts of their strategy which you begin to piece together.Kai wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 2:38 pmWhat's insanity is believing you've gained sufficient knowledge and experience about yourself and the market to profit after 12 days
Not sure I can simplify this concept more, I can only complicate it further.
You learn about yourself through market experience and if you've learned enough you will profit. If not, somebody else will.
But yes, I think you hit the nail on the head there with the quote, even if by accident. That's pretty much what most people do, the same things over and over on different markets and sports but never really changing their methodology and mindset. It usually takes 12 days/weeks/months/years/lifetimes to realize this, depending on your level of stubbornness and the size of your ego.
The market is an excellent teacher if you're not too stubborn to learn or too egotistical to want to learn. Once markets settle, your tuition fees go straight into your teachers' pockets. But the main issue is people don't want to learn how to profit, they just want to profit. But I don't see what's so special about them that they feel so entitled to profit they don't deserve.
Realize this and you are already ahead of most people.
What I have learned so far is that directly copying Youtube videos is not the way. Nobody is going to post the EXACT method. But you can sure think outside the box and think about how you can adapt default strategies, or take advantage of the knowledge people are using default strategies and counter these
i'm sure it'll have been mentioned somewhere on the forum before. The want and need for finding a niche are 2 different beasts and present in many different forms. my worst performing times were when i DECIDED to give sports trading a go full time.Fugazi wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 2:56 pmAs I've mentioned before, I used to be profitable at poker. I know what it takes. Doesn't mean I can't be frustrated anyway in the meantime... or be convinced I've figured out the winning strategy. Everyone thinks they have made it 1000 times over before they finally do. Anyone that doesn't admit they prematurely thought they had a winning strategy at some point is a liar...
arriving with a healthy balance (gained thro matched betting prior to that), i felt i would waltz thro the process. my main problem was that i hadn't really worked out any strategies and was very green to sports trading (that was the only green i had). during the 1st week, i had spectacular success with dutching (didn't know what it was, but reckoned that it was easy money). come week 2, my mental reversion kicked in and i had a realisation that i'd need to gen up on stats collection, analysis and leveraging my skills as a developer to exploit the BF api etc.
long story short, i jumped in with 3 feet not having a clue tbh. I then after busting my savings and 1st BF bank, snuck back into employment and used my FREE time to indulge in the BF pursuits and that was where the big difference occurred. suddenly, there was no NEED to profit from my actions - i just simply WANTED to. Just as it was all going well, the pandemic kicked in and I moved onto other things.
the moral of my story is that i needed it to work out in the early days and underestimated the rigour involved. laterally, when i no longer relied on BF for any income, things began to fall into place.
your own milage may vary...
That's clever and I've done my own share of reverse engineering out there in the past which later helped me understand different markets and expand my comfort zone, but the issue with that when starting is you're piggybacking off somebody else's work instead of building your own fundamentals. These fundamentals would probably be the thing that would prevent you from executing on a strategy even if you pieced it all from someone or if someone openly shared it with you. If I gave you one of my best strategies you wouldn't be able to profit off it. Or you find that market/strategy doesn't really suit you for a variety of reasons, or that it had an expiration date and you can't adapt without the missing fundamentals and all the legwork etc.
People usually don't realize this and if I had to give but one single piece of advice I would always say to find your own niche and build from there.
(Btw small disclaimer, anything I say I'm not having a go at you and I'm not always addressing you directly, there's plenty of lurkers around with similar issues. It's very easy to answer your opening question but if I can see past the question I try to raise these issues for whoever needs to hear it.)
At risk of going off topic...Kai wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 3:50 pmThat's clever and I've done my own share of reverse engineering out there in the past which later helped me understand different markets and expand my comfort zone, but the issue with that when starting is you're piggybacking off somebody else's work instead of building your own fundamentals. These fundamentals would probably be the thing that would prevent you from executing on a strategy even if you pieced it all from someone or if someone openly shared it with you. If I gave you one of my best strategies you wouldn't be able to profit off it. Or you find that market/strategy doesn't really suit you for a variety of reasons, or that it had an expiration date and you can't adapt without the missing fundamentals and all the legwork etc.
People usually don't realize this and if I had to give but one single piece of advice I would always say to find your own niche and build from there.
(Btw small disclaimer, anything I say I'm not having a go at you and I'm not always addressing you directly, there's plenty of lurkers around with similar issues. It's very easy to answer your opening question but if I can see past the question I try to raise these issues for whoever needs to hear it.)
Do you HAVE to be analysing data
Or can it be as simple as figuring out that you can profit by just placing bets below someone thats got a huge bet waiting and offsetting?
I know that doesnt work in isolation, but just deciding if I need to start analysing loads of statistics, or just trial and error lots of approaches...
tbh -you've answered your dilemma yourself. one begets the other. by analysing data, you will discover these type of setups and more importantly, will be able to track what becomes of the money sitting above/below.. i.e. does it get matched or pulled. from that you'll discover that you may want to go in the opposite direction to what you are seeing as in this case, it'd be spoof money that is set as a trap waiting for someone to take a fill from it.Fugazi wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 4:20 pmAt risk of going off topic...Kai wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 3:50 pmThat's clever and I've done my own share of reverse engineering out there in the past which later helped me understand different markets and expand my comfort zone, but the issue with that when starting is you're piggybacking off somebody else's work instead of building your own fundamentals. These fundamentals would probably be the thing that would prevent you from executing on a strategy even if you pieced it all from someone or if someone openly shared it with you. If I gave you one of my best strategies you wouldn't be able to profit off it. Or you find that market/strategy doesn't really suit you for a variety of reasons, or that it had an expiration date and you can't adapt without the missing fundamentals and all the legwork etc.
People usually don't realize this and if I had to give but one single piece of advice I would always say to find your own niche and build from there.
(Btw small disclaimer, anything I say I'm not having a go at you and I'm not always addressing you directly, there's plenty of lurkers around with similar issues. It's very easy to answer your opening question but if I can see past the question I try to raise these issues for whoever needs to hear it.)
Do you HAVE to be analysing data
Or can it be as simple as figuring out that you can profit by just placing bets below someone thats got a huge bet waiting and offsetting?
I know that doesnt work in isolation, but just deciding if I need to start analysing loads of statistics, or just trial and error lots of approaches...
this and more thro data analysis. you can setup a ruleset in BA that writes the tick data (as it's streamed) to a file. you can then use this in something as simple as Excel to review and look for outliers/patterns etc.
Thank you. I think it is time I start tracking everything rather than shooting blindly. I think I just needed to exhaust the path of least resistance to begin with before setting aside time to properly study what I am doing. I think I also needed some reassurance I'm not about to commit thousands of hours studying useless things. I feel I am good at considering the ''they know that I know type strategies'', so should be good at working out whats going on with the data I analysetbh -you've answered your dilemma yourself. one begets the other. by analysing data, you will discover these type of setups and more importantly, will be able to track what becomes of the money sitting above/below.. i.e. does it get matched or pulled. from that you'll discover that you may want to go in the opposite direction to what you are seeing as in this case, it'd be spoof money that is set as a trap waiting for someone to take a fill from it.
this and more thro data analysis. you can setup a ruleset in BA that writes the tick data (as it's streamed) to a file. you can then use this in something as simple as Excel to review and look for outliers/patterns etc.
when i was a BA dabbler, i made a few rules that i uploaded here. this one below will capture the streamed data from any event into a csv file (PRE race and IP). i know it's an elderly thread now, but should still work: viewtopic.php?p=232149#p232149Fugazi wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 4:43 pmThank you. I think it is time I start tracking everything rather than shooting blindly. I think I just needed to exhaust the path of least resistance to begin with before setting aside time to properly study what I am doing. I think I also needed some reassurance I'm not about to commit thousands of hours studying useless things. I feel I am good at considering the ''they know that I know type strategies'', so should be good at working out whats going on with the data I analysetbh -you've answered your dilemma yourself. one begets the other. by analysing data, you will discover these type of setups and more importantly, will be able to track what becomes of the money sitting above/below.. i.e. does it get matched or pulled. from that you'll discover that you may want to go in the opposite direction to what you are seeing as in this case, it'd be spoof money that is set as a trap waiting for someone to take a fill from it.
this and more thro data analysis. you can setup a ruleset in BA that writes the tick data (as it's streamed) to a file. you can then use this in something as simple as Excel to review and look for outliers/patterns etc.
You just saved me a weeks work. Thank you.
when i was a BA dabbler, i made a few rules that i uploaded here. this one below will capture the streamed data from any event into a csv file (PRE race and IP). i know it's an elderly thread now, but should still work: viewtopic.php?p=232149#p232149