Simple automation wont run?

[Bobajob]

the KEY to this one is to monitor the book value on each runner using sv's (on a high streaming refresh) and then do a constant lookback across the last 10-15 changes and identify the point where you have 2 runners increasing and decreasing their book% in almost equal ratios. then, place either a back (or lay) at xx ticks above the current price with an offset xx ticks below the current price. with a bit of trial and error, you should manage to catch a few of these. thereafter, it's all about finessing things, sorry if i make it sound simple, it certainly isn't straightfwd but is do-able.

it's all about finessing things

The way I would finesse things is by backing the 'likely' winner from odds 1.2 downwards and 'greening' up before it became a 'likely' loser at odds of 1.05. If you think the 'likely' winner is certain to win then obviously no need to 'green' up

possibly that would work, but that is a very subjective view maybe. tbh -when i did this, i was leveraging the BF api using c# (rather than BA), so i used a dictionary object that had the runner name as the key with the *cargo* a list of objects that contained the datetime of the action, coupled with the prevailing odds at the time. what I then did was to capture those dictionary objects as frequently as the streaming presented them. i'd then process each runner against every other runner and if a pair was found to be heading off on a parabolic journey, i'd set a back bet on the ascending odds candidate. this would typically be matched at 4-6 odds and would then tumble back down to evens or thereabouts. I'd definitely NOT be looking to back at anything below 3 odds..

this was just one variation, but was the one that bore the most fruit.

possibly that would work

Not a problem.
The only problem is when both 'likely' winners 'fall/UR' at the last fence. Double whammy. FFS
Swings and roundabouts. Snakes and Ladders

[Kai]

Giving away a lot of information here.

i've got no skin left in this game, so count it as opensource

If you don't me asking Jimbo, how come you're still around It's good to see but if you're not involved anymore...

Keeping the door ajar just in case?

[Fugazi]

Wow, this is a great thread. Some really helpful advice . Im taking it all onboard, so far having a lot of success this weekend. Hard trying to go back to basics when I've been profitable so far (this weekend hah). But I know in the long run I will open a lot more avenues for profit and have to ask less questions

[jimibt]

Giving away a lot of information here.

i've got no skin left in this game, so count it as opensource

If you don't me asking Jimbo, how come you're still around It's good to see but if you're not involved anymore...

Keeping the door ajar just in case?

hi kai - it's a few things. i'm still active on guitar/audio forums that i joined over 25 years ago and likewise am always hanging around cooking forums in short, if you find a good active community that can spark ideas, then rather than lurk, i tend to contribute anything that i feel might be useful. as for leaving the door ajar, it's unlikely as my current niche has a bit more volume flowing thro the markets and infinite approaches on sharing some of those profits.

however -still lots to be gleaned on here that is applicable elsewhere

[Fugazi]

i've got no skin left in this game, so count it as opensource

If you don't me asking Jimbo, how come you're still around It's good to see but if you're not involved anymore...

Keeping the door ajar just in case?

hi kai - it's a few things. i'm still active on guitar/audio forums that i joined over 25 years ago and likewise am always hanging around cooking forums in short, if you find a good active community that can spark ideas, then rather than lurk, i tend to contribute anything that i feel might be useful. as for leaving the door ajar, it's unlikely as my current niche has a bit more volume flowing thro the markets and infinite approaches on sharing some of those profits.

however -still lots to be gleaned on here that is applicable elsewhere

Ok Ive strayed now. I have finally mastered barre chords after 2 years . Guitar whilst waiting for markets is productive time filling.

Im mildly confused by your reply - are you saying you still trade, just not horses/greyhounds?

[jimibt]

If you don't me asking Jimbo, how come you're still around It's good to see but if you're not involved anymore...

Keeping the door ajar just in case?

hi kai - it's a few things. i'm still active on guitar/audio forums that i joined over 25 years ago and likewise am always hanging around cooking forums in short, if you find a good active community that can spark ideas, then rather than lurk, i tend to contribute anything that i feel might be useful. as for leaving the door ajar, it's unlikely as my current niche has a bit more volume flowing thro the markets and infinite approaches on sharing some of those profits.

however -still lots to be gleaned on here that is applicable elsewhere

Ok Ive strayed now. I have finally mastered barre chords after 2 years . Guitar whilst waiting for markets is productive time filling.

Im mildly confused by your reply - are you saying you still trade, just not horses/greyhounds?

keep up with the guitar - started when i was 13 and still play every day!! I no longer trade on betfair. my trading activity is now focussed on forex using IC Markets. however, many approaches learnt trading on BF have been transferable when i made the switch, not least, money management and backtesting. if i were to emphasize only 2 things, it would be those 2 - no matter what arena you are focussed on.

[Kai]

Wow, this is a great thread.

Anyone can create one if they ask the right questions

As they say, that's already half of the solution!

[Fugazi]

Wow, this is a great thread.

Anyone can create one if they ask the right questions

As they say, that's already half of the solution!

I mean on reflection it was a poor thread topic really.

I keep toying with the idea of starting a thread where I post my findings of things I've tried that don't work, and hypothesise why I think they don't work. I reckon that will be good for engaging discussions

[Kai]

Wow, this is a great thread.

Anyone can create one if they ask the right questions

As they say, that's already half of the solution!

I mean on reflection it was a poor thread topic really.

I wouldn't know tbh, having only seen the last few posts really

Just saying people usually don't get to the good questions, it's not a bad idea to try and tap into the market experience that forum as a whole has, even if literally nobody was profitable that would still be a serious amount of markets traded overall

So why not, it's not like there's much going on anyway nowadays, good luck with it

[Kai]

i've got no skin left in this game, so count it as opensource

If you don't me asking Jimbo, how come you're still around It's good to see but if you're not involved anymore...

Keeping the door ajar just in case?

hi kai - it's a few things. i'm still active on guitar/audio forums that i joined over 25 years ago and likewise am always hanging around cooking forums in short, if you find a good active community that can spark ideas, then rather than lurk, i tend to contribute anything that i feel might be useful. as for leaving the door ajar, it's unlikely as my current niche has a bit more volume flowing thro the markets and infinite approaches on sharing some of those profits.

however -still lots to be gleaned on here that is applicable elsewhere

I see, so you're saying you have massive sunk cost fallacy issues

jk, but imagine if everyone else shared that type of mindset, wouldn't that be lovely Carry on then, much love Jimbo <3

[Bobajob]

the KEY to this one is to monitor the book value on each runner using sv's (on a high streaming refresh) and then do a constant lookback across the last 10-15 changes and identify the point where you have 2 runners increasing and decreasing their book% in almost equal ratios. then, place either a back (or lay) at xx ticks above the current price with an offset xx ticks below the current price. with a bit of trial and error, you should manage to catch a few of these. thereafter, it's all about finessing things, sorry if i make it sound simple, it certainly isn't straightfwd but is do-able.

it's all about finessing things

The way I would finesse things is by backing the 'likely' winner from odds 1.2 downwards and 'greening' up before it became a 'likely' loser at odds of 1.05. If you think the 'likely' winner is certain to win then obviously no need to 'green' up

possibly that would work, but that is a very subjective view maybe. tbh -when i did this, i was leveraging the BF api using c# (rather than BA), so i used a dictionary object that had the runner name as the key with the *cargo* a list of objects that contained the datetime of the action, coupled with the prevailing odds at the time. what I then did was to capture those dictionary objects as frequently as the streaming presented them. i'd then process each runner against every other runner and if a pair was found to be heading off on a parabolic journey, i'd set a back bet on the ascending odds candidate. this would typically be matched at 4-6 odds and would then tumble back down to evens or thereabouts. I'd definitely NOT be looking to back at anything below 3 odds..

this was just one variation, but was the one that bore the most fruit.

I'd definitely NOT be looking to back at anything below 3 odds..

Why ?

I'd back anything between 1.01 and 1000 if my strategy dictates

[jimibt]

The way I would finesse things is by backing the 'likely' winner from odds 1.2 downwards and 'greening' up before it became a 'likely' loser at odds of 1.05. If you think the 'likely' winner is certain to win then obviously no need to 'green' up

possibly that would work, but that is a very subjective view maybe. tbh -when i did this, i was leveraging the BF api using c# (rather than BA), so i used a dictionary object that had the runner name as the key with the *cargo* a list of objects that contained the datetime of the action, coupled with the prevailing odds at the time. what I then did was to capture those dictionary objects as frequently as the streaming presented them. i'd then process each runner against every other runner and if a pair was found to be heading off on a parabolic journey, i'd set a back bet on the ascending odds candidate. this would typically be matched at 4-6 odds and would then tumble back down to evens or thereabouts. I'd definitely NOT be looking to back at anything below 3 odds..

this was just one variation, but was the one that bore the most fruit.

I'd definitely NOT be looking to back at anything below 3 odds..

Why ?

I'd back anything between 1.01 and 1000 if my strategy dictated

this was in reference to the particular strategy/observations that i'd made back in the day. I guess a picture paints a thousand words (odds?? ). this was what i saw repeated time and again:

gyration-simplified.png

I would monitor for an equal deviation (in the same timeband) on 2 runners and based on the starting point, would PITCH my back anywhere between 6-8 odds with an offset at half those odds. odds wise, this obviously could vary quite a bit, and it all took place within a 5-7 second window, so accounting for IP delay, was always tricky but certainly manageable.

[decomez6]

thanks jimibt.gif

I've realised my error.. its terminology. I think what i actually wanted to do was the second best LAY price with unmatched volume >=20 fires a Back bet. I realise the trouble Ive been having with a lot of automations now .

In the screenshot below, at back odds 5.6 is the value 83. This would trigger a back bet at 5.5 if the automation runs as I intended.

You can probably see why I made that mistake

this is probably more a case of understanding the makeup of the exchange and BA arenas than anything else.

in the beginning (as i mentioned in an another thread), I kinda blazed on, regardless and altho I made some good headway, my epiphany came once I understood what each of the moving parts represented. This was basically how i broke it down:

1. you have a finite time in which to participate in the market - look at how it forms and look at when the money arrives
2. as you are doing, look at the 2nd, 3rd, 4th best prices during the market formation and see how money flows across them
3. experiment with different offsets when offering to the market (it's tempting to take best price but offering outside the spread at various points is an interesting exercise and highlights the efficiencies you'll have to battle with)
4. always remember that the BF market (in the WIN horse market) has a book value of roughly 100%. this means that if one price shortens, one or many other prices must drift up in order to accommodate this mechanical nature. track the main runners that are affected by for example, a sudden shortening of the fav.
5. box up volume into a pseudo book% also. i.e. sum all the volume and then divi it into %ages. you can then compare things like volume% vs book% and track those related changes
6. In Play, keep a close eye on the two main contenders at the dying part of the race. You'll see an interesting pattern play out time and time again where the odds on both contenders gyrate out in a symmetrical parabolic curve (one up, one down). this can be exploited purely mechanically

Mechanical studies - all of the above play out every day and has no bearing on fundamentals. Just my take from back in the day...

Thanks jimibt !

[jimibt]

thanks jimibt.gif

I've realised my error.. its terminology. I think what i actually wanted to do was the second best LAY price with unmatched volume >=20 fires a Back bet. I realise the trouble Ive been having with a lot of automations now .

In the screenshot below, at back odds 5.6 is the value 83. This would trigger a back bet at 5.5 if the automation runs as I intended.

You can probably see why I made that mistake

this is probably more a case of understanding the makeup of the exchange and BA arenas than anything else.

in the beginning (as i mentioned in an another thread), I kinda blazed on, regardless and altho I made some good headway, my epiphany came once I understood what each of the moving parts represented. This was basically how i broke it down:

1. you have a finite time in which to participate in the market - look at how it forms and look at when the money arrives
2. as you are doing, look at the 2nd, 3rd, 4th best prices during the market formation and see how money flows across them
3. experiment with different offsets when offering to the market (it's tempting to take best price but offering outside the spread at various points is an interesting exercise and highlights the efficiencies you'll have to battle with)
4. always remember that the BF market (in the WIN horse market) has a book value of roughly 100%. this means that if one price shortens, one or many other prices must drift up in order to accommodate this mechanical nature. track the main runners that are affected by for example, a sudden shortening of the fav.
5. box up volume into a pseudo book% also. i.e. sum all the volume and then divi it into %ages. you can then compare things like volume% vs book% and track those related changes
6. In Play, keep a close eye on the two main contenders at the dying part of the race. You'll see an interesting pattern play out time and time again where the odds on both contenders gyrate out in a symmetrical parabolic curve (one up, one down). this can be exploited purely mechanically

Mechanical studies - all of the above play out every day and has no bearing on fundamentals. Just my take from back in the day...

Thanks jimibt !

lol - like the NEW/revised avatar.. any chance of redoing to down to 100*100 pixels -cheeky i know!!

[Kai]

lol - like the NEW/revised avatar.. any chance of redoing to down to 100*100 pixels -cheeky i know!!

I thought the avatars were limited to 100x100 pixels?

Could have sworn those were the dimensions when I was changing my own the other day, after being mistaken for three time Academy Award winner Will Ferrell more than once.