UK General Election July 4th 2024 - Trading ONLY thread

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Euler
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Two things you shouldn't talk about at a dinner party (or Forum it seems) are religion and politics.

It was very difficult to keep the balance in the old UK General election thread, so it was eventually locked.

It was discussed on that thread whether we start a new thread that is focused purely on trading. So here it is.

This thread will follow a strict rule that if any arguments or insults break out we will just delete them. The moderators will enforce this rigoursly to ensure we can debate and discuss key aspects of these markets without falling into the dinner party trap.

Let the discussion commence.
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Euler
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I'll kick it off with the Rochdale by-election.

Labour imploded on an election they should have won given they were priced at 1.02.

I think the key for me here was how well the independent candidate did. That hints at a lot of unhappy voters in general.
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Dallas
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The margin which Galloway won that by-election really surprised me, be interesting to see if his party can now become a credible threat to some Labours seats
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Euler
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Rishi holding a press conference at Number 10.
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Euler
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Euler wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2024 5:42 pm
Rishi holding a press conference at Number 10.
The irony of somebody trying to drown out somebody talking about the democratic right of free speech.
greenmark
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Galloway being elected does feel a bit like UKIP-lite. They have no policies but they could disrupt Labour's predicted majority.
Galloway has already said he's targeting heavily muslim communties and that's fair enough. Labour need to respond by being sharper with their approach to Gaza.

But I don't like him tbh. Self publicist, not a genuine politician.

There aren't any upcoming by-elections that will be affected by the Rochdale result.

Just came across a quote re: Galloway and Saddam Hussein.
In the 1990s, he was heavily criticised for meeting Iraq's leader Saddam Hussein and telling him - in a much-repeated clip - "Sir, I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability". His multiple visits to the region during the period led to him being dubbed the "member for Baghdad Central".

How ironic that all those muslims have voted for a supporter of someone that murdered 60.000 muslims.
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Euler
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greenmark wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2024 8:26 pm
Galloway being elected does feel a bit like UKIP-lite. They have no policies but they could disrupt Labour's predicted majority.
That was my initial thought, it sort of reshapes the election a bit. Though it doesn't seem to have had any impact on the markets at the moment.
henbet22
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If a Peace for Gaza party springs up then the votes go in that direction in some constituencies. Otherwise low turnout so not much change to the Status Quo as not many George Galloways about.
Archery1969
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What the country needs is multiple independents or bring in proportional representation.

But that won’t happen and therefore I fear the same old political arguments will carry on.
sionascaig
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Keeping an eye on the level of Reform support. If stays at 10% then clearly will be devastating for number of Tory seats at next GE. Probably why Stammer is currently having a go at Sunak about allowing Farage back into the Tory party - whether you like it or not if Farage decides to "vocally" support one or the other could be quite influential on final number of Tory seats.
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Space&Time
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I reckon apathy wins this year. < 60% turnout.
henbet22
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Interesting take on Farage.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ion-reform

This is key for Reform UK and the tories.

"But it is true that a receptacle for protest on the right – a place to register generalised rage at the state of everything – can put a lot of Conservative seats in jeopardy without siphoning off that many votes. And Labour gains by default, as the party in second place."
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Euler
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George Galloway vows his party will take Angela Rayner's seat

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68467359
henbet22
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“There’s at least 15,000 supporters of my point of view in her constituency. So we’ll be putting a candidate up against her, either a Workers party candidate or more likely an independent camp candidate that we support, and that will vitally affect the election of the nearby deputy leader,” he said.
greenmark
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Archery1969 wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2024 10:45 pm
What the country needs is multiple independents or bring in proportional representation.

But that won’t happen and therefore I fear the same old political arguments will carry on.
Curious that you care so much about a country you are leaving.
I don't blame you for leaving. Jeez, leaving Chesterfield UK for one of the biggest untouched wildernesses would be mind boggling.
To me Canada is Scottish Highlands, North Wales, Lake District times 10. I have serious envy.
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