Staking and Performance

[hecojef928]

I've been experimenting with a new system for greyhound races for the past 4-8 weeks, and initially, it showed promising results with a nice win rate. However, upon increasing the stake size from x to y (both under £20), the system's performance plummeted. Has anyone else encountered a similar decrease in performance when adjusting the stakes slightly?

While I understand that variance could play a role, reverting to the original stake size seemed to restore the system's previous performance. I'm now wondering whether stake sizes could indeed be influencing performance, especially considering the potential impact of illiquidity in the markets and other bots.

[Anbell]

I've been experimenting with a new system for greyhound races for the past 4-8 weeks, and initially, it showed promising results with a nice win rate. However, upon increasing the stake size from x to y (both under £20), the system's performance plummeted. Has anyone else encountered a similar decrease in performance when adjusting the stakes slightly?

While I understand that variance could play a role, reverting to the original stake size seemed to restore the system's previous performance. I'm now wondering whether stake sizes could indeed be influencing performance, especially considering the potential impact of illiquidity in the markets and other bots.

It is always hard to know. Some here swear that the GH are particularly sensitive to increased stakes. How many bets did you have pre and post the change and what is the average price?

[jamesedwards]

100%. On an Exchange, the higher your stakes the lower your ROI%, and it seems the gearing ratio on Greyhounds is particularly high. I think it's because as your stake increases the fill rate on your +EV offers will decline, while your -EV offers will continue to get picked off in full.

Even marginal stake increases on Greyhounds can very quickly ruin profitability.

[Euler]

100%. On an Exchange, the higher your stakes the lower your ROI%, and it seems the gearing ratio on Greyhounds is particularly high. I think it's because as your stake increases the fill rate on your +EV offers will decline, while your -EV offers will continue to get picked off in full.

Even marginal stake increases on Greyhounds can very quickly ruin profitability.

I agree. Finding the right stake that maximises profit but doesn't reduce ROI is a key part of trading. Greyhound markets are very small on an individual basis.

[The Silk Run]

My sweet spot for the Grey markets is staking 0.09p. Any higher the stratergies go in decline, deficit. It works for me ....

[hecojef928]

100%. On an Exchange, the higher your stakes the lower your ROI%, and it seems the gearing ratio on Greyhounds is particularly high. I think it's because as your stake increases the fill rate on your +EV offers will decline, while your -EV offers will continue to get picked off in full.

Even marginal stake increases on Greyhounds can very quickly ruin profitability.

Thanks for all the replies. That's interesting. Initially, I was puzzled by the drop in my system's performance, but then I figured it was likely due to tweaks I made in my staking strategy. Despite only making slight adjustments to the stakes, it's good to know that others have faced similar scenarios. Moving forward, I'll be closely monitoring it and will probably maintain the stakes at a specific capped amount then.

[jamesedwards]

I know I have had numerous examples of this, but here's a great one I found from an old football automation. This was thousands of markets.

Capture 30.PNG

[hecojef928]

I know I have had numerous examples of this, but here's a great one I found from an old football automation. This was thousands of markets.

Capture 30.PNG

Thanks for sharing! That's useful. I'm curious, did the strategy show long-term profitability with £5 stakes? The resemblance between yours and mine is quite intriguing. It got me thinking, especially as I was about to make adjustments to the original strategy, only to realize that the stakes were the cause all along.

[jamesedwards]

I know I have had numerous examples of this, but here's a great one I found from an old football automation. This was thousands of markets.

Capture 30.PNG

Thanks for sharing! That's useful. I'm curious, did the strategy show long-term profitability with £5 stakes? The resemblance between yours and mine is quite intriguing. It got me thinking, especially as I was about to make adjustments to the original strategy, only to realize that the stakes were the cause all along.

Can't remember what it was now. Was from several years back.

[LinusP]

Diagram stolen from robotjames but to add some context £20 on greyhounds is about as far right as you can go.

IMG_2047.jpeg

[Derek27]

IMG_2047.jpeg

[hecojef928]

Diagram stolen from robotjames but to add some context £20 on greyhounds is about as far right as you can go.

IMG_2047.jpeg

Brilliant! That diagram nails it perfectly for me. I might just start posting diagrams from now on.