Pre race horse trading
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sionascaig
- Posts: 1074
- Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am
Cricket : To Win the Toss
==> Only two outcomes
==> You know what the odds are for an unbiased coin
==> You know what represent value
How can you lose !
Man it's easy to lose on toss outcomes. Many bookies give 1.90 odds for toss some gives 1.95 so basically the odds are not true. You're destined to losesionascaig wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2024 4:24 pmCricket : To Win the Toss
==> Only two outcomes
==> You know what the odds are for an unbiased coin
==> You know what represent value
How can you lose !
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sionascaig
- Posts: 1074
- Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am
Why would you back at 1.9?RacingGuy wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2024 8:19 amMan it's easy to lose on toss outcomes. Many bookies give 1.90 odds for toss some gives 1.95 so basically the odds are not true. You're destined to losesionascaig wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2024 4:24 pmCricket : To Win the Toss
==> Only two outcomes
==> You know what the odds are for an unbiased coin
==> You know what represent value
How can you lose !
Just checked one match due to start later today and see folk have manged to lay at 1.5 & others backed at 3
Not convinced you have quite grasped the concept on trading or value betting..
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Michael5482
- Posts: 1248
- Joined: Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:11 pm
Can you bet on the coin toss can you? I can't stand cricket but I'll have some of thatsionascaig wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2024 9:44 amWhy would you back at 1.9?RacingGuy wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2024 8:19 amMan it's easy to lose on toss outcomes. Many bookies give 1.90 odds for toss some gives 1.95 so basically the odds are not true. You're destined to losesionascaig wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2024 4:24 pm
Cricket : To Win the Toss
==> Only two outcomes
==> You know what the odds are for an unbiased coin
==> You know what represent value
How can you lose !
Just checked one match due to start later today and see folk have manged to lay at 1.5 & others backed at 3
Not convinced you have quite grasped the concept on trading or value betting..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SxueXf0thE
Beware of the coin flip it is not always 50/50, supposing you are a referee or umpire and you always place the coin on your fingers with Heads facing up, then it is more likely to flip an Heads than a Tail.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2397248
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2397248
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sionascaig
- Posts: 1074
- Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am
That would be an edge then, even better )conduirez wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2024 12:09 pmBeware of the coin flip it is not always 50/50, supposing you are a referee or umpire and you always place the coin on your fingers with Heads facing up, then it is more likely to flip an Heads than a Tail.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2397248
edit - I suppose someone who is a professional tosser will also develop habits & so maybe more likely than not to have a preference!
Im a tosser but sadly don't get paid for itsionascaig wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2024 12:18 pmThat would be an edge then, even better )conduirez wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2024 12:09 pmBeware of the coin flip it is not always 50/50, supposing you are a referee or umpire and you always place the coin on your fingers with Heads facing up, then it is more likely to flip an Heads than a Tail.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2397248
edit - I suppose someone who is a professional tosser will also develop habits & so maybe more likely than not to have a preference!
Link me these kind of odds in PM. 20% winnings I'll give you lolsionascaig wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2024 9:44 amWhy would you back at 1.9?RacingGuy wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2024 8:19 amMan it's easy to lose on toss outcomes. Many bookies give 1.90 odds for toss some gives 1.95 so basically the odds are not true. You're destined to losesionascaig wrote: ↑Sat Mar 16, 2024 4:24 pm
Cricket : To Win the Toss
==> Only two outcomes
==> You know what the odds are for an unbiased coin
==> You know what represent value
How can you lose !
Just checked one match due to start later today and see folk have manged to lay at 1.5 & others backed at 3
Not convinced you have quite grasped the concept on trading or value betting..
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sionascaig
- Posts: 1074
- Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am
There is a game today with a few pounds matched at 95 (before the toss).. I'd take that any day on a 50/50 outcome.
Anyhow, these markets are deadly dull & I would not recommend them for manual trading. Might pick up something on automation although have to watch out for the the market still being open "after" the toss has happened. Oh wait that is another opportunity !
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*taking notes gif*sionascaig wrote: ↑Tue Mar 19, 2024 8:27 amThere is a game today with a few pounds matched at 95 (before the toss).. I'd take that any day on a 50/50 outcome.
Anyhow, these markets are deadly dull & I would not recommend them for manual trading. Might pick up something on automation although have to watch out for the the market still being open "after" the toss has happened. Oh wait that is another opportunity !
Are you stupid? 1.95 odds has a 5% juice in simple terms the true odds are 2.0 for 50/50sionascaig wrote: ↑Tue Mar 19, 2024 8:27 amThere is a game today with a few pounds matched at 95 (before the toss).. I'd take that any day on a 50/50 outcome.
Anyhow, these markets are deadly dull & I would not recommend them for manual trading. Might pick up something on automation although have to watch out for the the market still being open "after" the toss has happened. Oh wait that is another opportunity !