Under/over 2.5 goals

[kenfrost]

Am I right in thinking that if you are trading the under/over 2.5 goal market, specifically backing then laying the under 2.5 market, you stand a better chance of success if you focus on games with higher predicted goals; because the time decay factor is faster in a predicted high scoring game?

[jamesedwards]

Am I right in thinking that if you are trading the under/over 2.5 goal market, specifically backing then laying the under 2.5 market, you stand a better chance of success if you focus on games with higher predicted goals; because the time decay factor is faster in a predicted high scoring game?

I would have thought that a higher speed of price decay is mirrored by a higher chance of a goal being scored. Generally the prices available on goals market will be fairly accurate.

eg the likelihood of a goal being scored in the 20 mins it might take match A to drop from 2.0 to 1.5, is likely to be the same likelihood as a goal being scored in the 30 mins it might take Match B to also drop from 2.0 to 1.5.

[kenfrost]

Am I right in thinking that if you are trading the under/over 2.5 goal market, specifically backing then laying the under 2.5 market, you stand a better chance of success if you focus on games with higher predicted goals; because the time decay factor is faster in a predicted high scoring game?

I would have thought that a higher speed of price decay is mirrored by a higher chance of a goal being scored. Generally the prices available on goals market will be fairly accurate.

eg the likelihood of a goal being scored in the 20 mins it might take match A to drop from 2.0 to 1.5, is likely to be the same likelihood as a goal being scored in the 30 mins it might take Match B to also drop from 2.0 to 1.5.

Thanks, Peter seems to be saying in the comments here that higher predicted goals means faster decay.

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