📊 Football Stats

[FTAcademy]

I’m starting this thread to share interesting football stats that could help with trading insights. Whether it’s goal timings, market movements, or unusual patterns, I’ll be posting data-driven findings regularly.

But I don’t want to do this alone! If you have any interesting stats, feel free to share them here. Or if there’s a particular topic you’d like me to investigate, drop a suggestion—I’ll dig into the numbers and post my findings.

Let’s make this a valuable resource for all football traders!

Looking forward to your ideas!

[FTAcademy]

Football Goals Per Minute – Interesting Insights!

To kick things off, I’m sharing some stats on goal distribution per minute and across different match periods.

Data Sample: Over 11,000 matches from the Top 7 European Leagues, last 5 seasons (excluding the current one).
Key Insights:

Goals are scarce early on, but increase as the match progresses.
Minutes 45 & 90 include stoppage time—unsurprisingly, they show spikes.
The flow of goals rises steadily, with late-game drama being a real thing!

Check out the images below for the full breakdown!

[Kai]

The flow of goals rises steadily, with late-game drama being a real thing!

Do you have the average length of extra time for that sample?

[FTAcademy]

The flow of goals rises steadily, with late-game drama being a real thing!

Do you have the average length of extra time for that sample?

Excellent question. Unfortunately, my answer is "Yes, but not sure". The average extra time for this period is different, considering the VAR feature. Also, this extra time is not taken from the same reliable source as the other data.

LaLiga: Before the introduction of VAR, the average stoppage time was approximately 4 minutes and 11 seconds. With VAR's implementation, this increased to around 6 minutes and 53 seconds. In the current season, it's further risen to about 11 minutes and 25 seconds.

Premier League: Prior to VAR, matches had an average of 6 minutes and 26 seconds of added time. Post-VAR, this increased to 7 minutes and 30 seconds. In the current season, the average stoppage time is approximately 11 minutes and 35 seconds.

Bundesliga: The average stoppage time before VAR was about 3 minutes and 43 seconds, increasing to 5 minutes and 21 seconds post-VAR.

Serie A: Matches had an average added time of 5 minutes and 19 seconds before VAR, which rose to 6 minutes and 26 seconds after VAR's introduction.

Ligue 1: The average stoppage time was 4 minutes and 55 seconds pre-VAR, increasing to 6 minutes and 2 seconds post-VAR.

Hence, I would say an average of 5.70 minutes per match. This season is much higher, more than 7 minutes I've seen...

[FTAcademy]

I already shared these stats last week, but want to post it here to be kept in the same repository for future referrence.

Correct Score Heat Map

I analyzed 56,000+ matches, and the results are clear: 0-0 to 2-2 is the green zone—the most repeated scores!

[elofan0]

obviously stats would change again for short priced home fav or away fav

[FTAcademy]

There is an alteration to the baseline, but not that great. See below the Correct Score heat map for Home Favorite & Away Favorite (+50% chance to win).

It is amazing how similar are the two Heat Maps, almost no difference between them...

[elofan0]

looks good thanks

[FTAcademy]

Football Goals: Average Minutes & Time Between Goals

Data Sample: Over 11,000 matches from the Top 7 European Leagues, last 5 seasons (excluding the current one).
Examples to better understand the stats:

HG 1 - Home team scores the first goal on average around min 39, which is 43% from the match period (1-90 min).
HG 2-3 - Time between second and third goals is around 9 minutes, being the second highest time (18.62%) after HG 1-2 (37.71%), where the time between first and second goals is around 18 minutes.

Key insights:
The most relevant one, every goal scored increases the chance of another to come and even quicker.
Again, the stats indicate a great balance between home and away teams, both scoring their goals, on average, at the same time (home team very slightly quicker than away team, around 1 min)
Interesting that away teams score additional goals quicker than the home team, once they "broke the deadlock".

Anything I missed? Are you interested in particular stats?