In-play question

[Iron]

Sometimes, a horse will dramatically fall in price at the very start of a race.

It it's a 5 or 6 furlong sprint, I can understand that. But with longer races, surely whether a horse is quick out of the gates doesn't mean much. So are such dramatic price falls usually market over-reactions?

Thanks

Jeff

[Euler]

When I would be a couple of quid down on a race I would often lay something with £2 on that basis but it turned out to be a net negative strategy so I started doing the opposite and it seems to be a net positive strategy. Can't really offer an explanation though. If the price collapses as the off it seems to be an indicator that it will go lower.

That's my experiance anyhow.

[Iron]

Something else I've considered doing is, when trading a drifter, not greening up. My thinking is that drifters are often overpriced, and this would give me a value bet or the opportunity to green up in play if the price drops.

Do you think this could work?

Jeff

When I would be a couple of quid down on a race I would often lay something with £2 on that basis but it turned out to be a net negative strategy so I started doing the opposite and it seems to be a net positive strategy. Can't really offer an explanation though. If the price collapses as the off it seems to be an indicator that it will go lower.

That's my experiance anyhow.

[to75ne]

Something else I've considered doing is, when trading a drifter, not greening up. My thinking is that drifters are often overpriced, and this would give me a value bet or the opportunity to green up in play if the price drops.

Do you think this could work?

Jeff

When I would be a couple of quid down on a race I would often lay something with £2 on that basis but it turned out to be a net negative strategy so I started doing the opposite and it seems to be a net positive strategy. Can't really offer an explanation though. If the price collapses as the off it seems to be an indicator that it will go lower.

That's my experiance anyhow.

jeff,

just my opinion. if your are consistant with one mthod and taking money out (does not matter how much, just taht you taking out regualarly), then try other methods/styles etc. jumping about with different methods if your not consistant will just pull you down.

[Iron]

Hi Tony

I appreciate the advice, but providing I'm not trying to do too many things and once (which I don't feel I am), then it can't hurt to explore ways in which I can maximise my income (or at least minimise my losses!).

Jeff

jeff,

just my opinion. if your are consistant with one mthod and taking money out (does not matter how much, just taht you taking out regualarly), then try other methods/styles etc. jumping about with different methods if your not consistant will just pull you down.

[to75ne]

jeff thats good but always remember the objective is to take out money on a steady regular basis.

[Iron]

One of the main reasons I'm interested in trading rather than gambling (which is how I've been earning a living for the last 10 months) is because I want to move away from the statistically inevitable long losing runs. So yes, I would like to achieve consistent results.

I think, btw, the way I'll do that is possibly by focusing on quality racing. There are days when I can take a profit out of most races. And there are days like today which are a slog! The difference is possible due to the type of races.

Jeff

jeff thats good but remember the objective is to take out money on a staedy regular basis.

[to75ne]

One of the main reasons I'm interested in trading rather than gambling (which is how I've been earning a living for the last 10 months) is because I want to move away from the statistically inevitable long losing runs. So yes, I would like to achieve consistent results.

I think, btw, the way I'll do that is possibly by focusing on quality racing. There are days when I can take a profit out of most races. And there are days like today which are a slog! The difference is possible due to the type of races.

Jeff

jeff thats good but remember the objective is to take out money on a staedy regular basis.

it could also be not yet enough experience i.e. the pre horse race markets characteristics/behaviour change not just at 2/5/10/ 15 minutes etc before the off, but different days of the week, nat hunt/flat, grade, change in going etc, etc, etc.

you may need more time to gain consistency? (im not having a dig by the way)

[Iron]

Hi Tony

Thanks for the advice. I don't think you're having a go, btw. And it's useful for me to have conversations like this, as it helps to focus my mind on why I'm doing what I'm doing.

I am a swing trader. I wish I could scalp, but I need to focus on one thing at a time.

Give me a market with lots of nice trends, and I'm in my element. But in non-trending markets, swing traders can get whipsawed to death!

I recently bought a trading guide by a guy who goes counter-trend when the market appears to be turning after a sustained trend. He only uses the technique on horses 3.0 and under. Maybe that's something I should try.

I often trade Betfair markets, when I would think 'untradable rubbish' (or words to that effect!) if it were a Forex chart! So maybe that's the mistake I'm making, ie overtrading.

Jeff

it could also be not yet enough experience i.e. the pre horse race markets characteristics/behaviour change not just at 2/5/10/ 15 minutes etc before the off, but different days of the week, nat hunt/flat, grade, change in going etc, etc, etc.

you may need more time to gain consistency? (im not having a dig by the way)

[Iron]

PS Incidentally, the challenge I have with scalping is knowing when to close my trade for a loss, and when to wait for the market to come back to me.

The second race in this recording by Peter illustrates my point: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIFUc4aVEcQ

The market went against Peter, but rather than taking a hit, he held fire, and it came back to him. When I try that, the market goes further and further into the red, and I end up taking a big hit rather than a small hit!

Jeff

[Photon]

PS Incidentally, the challenge I have with scalping is knowing when to close my trade for a loss, and when to wait for the market to come back to me.

Jeff, if you're scalping then you can't wait for the market to come back to you. You have to close your trade if it move away from the desired position with 3 ticks probably being max.

The market went against Peter, but rather than taking a hit, he held fire, and it came back to him. When I try that, the market goes further and further into the red, and I end up taking a big hit rather than a small hit!

The main reasons why trade wasn't closed was because of a very narrow range - about £14k each were matched at 4.5 & 4.6 and therefore probability of moving away from this position was very low (people must've take that price for a reason).

Its very important to know whether market is conducive for scalping or swing trade and the trading range and amount matched are two very good indicators of that.

[Iron]

Thanks for the advice Photon.

BTW, speaking of cutting trades, I can't get the stoploss to work.

I've selected 'Stop on opening bet', with a 'stop trigger (ticks)' setting of 2 and a 'place at' setting of 5. I'm guessing that this should cause a back or lay bet to be placed 5 ticks away from the opening price if the market moves 2 ticks away from the opening price. However, nothing happens.

Is there anything else I need to do to get it to work?

Thanks

Jeff

Jeff, if you're scalping then you can't wait for the market to come back to you. You have to close your trade if it move away from the desired position with 3 ticks probably being max.

[Photon]

You might be getting mixed up with stop loss and offset. I tend to close out my trade mannualy. But I normally have my ladder shows greening option and I right click on price at least about 6 tick away from my traded price to trigger the stop-loss.

On occasion I use 'Offset bet with greening' function from the global setting if I want BA to automatically put offset bet for me.

I'm not exactly sure what the purpose of 'Stop on opening bet' function is but it seems to put a bet selected ticks away from the one placed. I guess this is useful when you're using one-click screen and want to say put 1 tick ahead of current price (useful when there are gaps). But I don't think its either for stop-loss or offset.

[Iron]

Thanks Photon

My thinking is that, if the market moves suddenly and strongly away from me, I want to be able to get out ASAP. And if I can place the order a few ticks beyond the stop, there's a very good chance of me getting matched at whatever the current price is.

Jeff

You might be getting mixed up with stop loss and offset. I tend to close out my trade mannualy. But I normally have my ladder shows greening option and I right click on price at least about 6 tick away from my traded price to trigger the stop-loss.

On occasion I use 'Offset bet with greening' function from the global setting if I want BA to automatically put offset bet for me.

I'm not exactly sure what the purpose of 'Stop on opening bet' function is but it seems to put a bet selected ticks away from the one placed. I guess this is useful when you're using one-click screen and want to say put 1 tick ahead of current price (useful when there are gaps). But I don't think its either for stop-loss or offset.

[to75ne]

PS Incidentally, the challenge I have with scalping is knowing when to close my trade for a loss, and when to wait for the market to come back to me.

The second race in this recording by Peter illustrates my point: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIFUc4aVEcQ

The market went against Peter, but rather than taking a hit, he held fire, and it came back to him. When I try that, the market goes further and further into the red, and I end up taking a big hit rather than a small hit!

Jeff

In all honesty jeff I think I would have tried to scalp this one hoping to take maybe 1 or 2 ticks from this market. If I had got it wrong I would probably have lost 2 ticks but no more than 3.

I would have waited until the price came back to 4.6 and placed a back, having missed 4.5, I would have waited (knowing that its lowest traded price 4.4) hoping to grab the scalp if the price came back up as it seemed there would be a good chance that it would do.

Hope that makes sense.

I think peter was seeing if the price would break its range. I don’t know what he was thinking its just my assumption, I really don’t wish to appear or seem presumptuous , im probably wrong as I said I would have scalped, he clearly did not.

At start nothing matched higher than 4.7 and lower than 4.4

4.7 2.8
4.6 11.6k
4.5 11.5k
4.4 1.7k

money as been matched in a 4 tick range.

At 2.47 places a lay 128 at 4.6 about 50£ in que at 4.7. theres 1443 in que at 4.6.
I assume he is testing if the price is going to break over 4.7, relatively safe as there is 1400 behind shoring him up and not much at 4.8, 4.9 and 5 approx 450.

At 2.55 after watching all the money evaporate at 4.7 he places 128 back at 4.7. this is clearly not a scratch as I assume he would have pulled the 128 lay at 4.6 if he thought he was wrong, I still think he is testing to see if the price will pop over 4.7.

At 2.58 his lay is taken, his cursor is always in position to scratch at 4.6, 4.5, 4.4. but he doe not.

I am sure he is aware nothing as been taken below 4.4, and there is good chance it will not break the bottom of the range but he is ready if it does.

By 4.36 the price comes back to the top of its range and he is a tick up. It never went lower than 4.3

At 4.38 he lays at 4.6 for 128 and shortly after a counter back of 128 at 4.7 for a 1tick scalp. All of the 128 at 4.7 is taken but only 30 got taken at 4.6

Again I think he was very confident that the price will stay in its range and come back, it traded at 4.8, 4.9 and a bit at 5 and came back. He was 1 tick up so he could afford to let go a bit higher with out scratching for a acceptable loss.

At 5.20 he greened up a couple ticks and out of the market. In just over 3 minutes hes 2 ticks up allowing the price to ebb and flow through its range, and never in danger of incurring a serious loss.

I think this is the difference between an average trader like myself who would have been happy to try take a single tick and a expert who is happy and confident and knowledgeable enough to know when to scalp for ticks and when to test the market in the hope of gaining many ticks, in the confidence they know when to get out for a minimal loss.

I think experience is the key. I think you should always scratch if in any doubt and always scratch if the price moves away from you. Until you have built up the experience. Better to come out level or with small loss then to quote yourself “The market went against Peter, but rather than taking a hit, he held fire, and it came back to him. When I try that, the market goes further and further into the red, and I end up taking a big hit rather than a small hit!”

Once again I don’t know or claim to know what peters thinks, his reasoning etc. I really don’t want to appear presumptuous

To put it in perspective I would listen/ask peter for advice, explanations, reasoning etc.
If peter ever came to me for advice on trading, I would have to assume he had started drinking meths and snorting vim.