Trading Anger Management

Trading is often about how to take the appropriate risk without exposing yourself to very human flaws.
Post Reply
James1st
Posts: 318
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 10:28 am

It is great to see so many fellow traders rally round to rhysmr2's support and offer some very sound advice about the physiological aspects of how the mind reacts to unexpected/unplanned losses.

I am posting from an entirely different perspective and rather than advocating yet another mind bending relaxation technique, I humbly suggest that someone needs to look at the fundamentals involved here. When there is an error is the basic function of a machine, no amount of oil is going to smoothe its running.

Looking at a few facts, rhysmr2 states that he was making around a grand a week; lets say an average £7 a race, 21 races a day, 7 days a week. The figure of £180 as a loss raises a huge red flag in this scenario about whether a 25-1 risk/reward ratio is a sustainable/profitable strategy. A few simple sums will show that this investment plan requires a tick success rate of over 96%. Unreasonable?. In my opinion it is.

When striking for a modest £7 per race profit, a loss of £180 (within the same money management parameters) is inconceivable whether it is a planned or unplanned loss. To lose over 100 ticks at this level would take a catastrophe, unless of course by some other error. Of course when we lose due to "unusual" circumstances (eg mad bomber) we may feel angry enough to smash a desk but as a planned loss it just doesn't make economic sense nor does it make any sense to blame the desk if it was a planned loss.

The worst mistake traders make is in the money management aspect of trading and indeed many people overlooked rhysmr2's own post.
rhysmr2 wrote:...The most annoying thing is I know what I'm doing wrong but I keep doing it! It starts when I use large stakes or double/triple up on my position, I can easily find myself with a massive stake over 1k at sometimes high odds 5/6 and when it goes against me my exit makes things worse, especially in a weak market!

So that leaves me with a large loss...
Rather than trying to appease the obvious distress caused by a large loss, it may serve as better advice to reassess the fundamental money management, risk/reward and the operational viability of the basic trading system.

Its either that or smoke another joint and crack on :ugeek:
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Hi James

Some people can no doubt trade like machines, executing their trades perfectly whatever their state of mind. But just as a sportsperson can be lousy one week and world class the next, for many traders I'm sure it's the same.

It may be that, if Rhymr2 were in the groove, he wouldn't have lost £180. Perhaps he'd have had the confidence to close out for a loss long before it got that far. But if you're hurting and want to avoid a smarting loss, it's easy to think "I'll ride my luck just this once". Of course, what happens more often than not is that a small loss becomes a big loss. But I know from experience that you don't always look at it that way at the time... :(

Jeff

PS I think the odds of Rhysmr2 having made a grand a week by pure chance in the past are remote, so my money is on him having a sound methodology. :)
James1st wrote:
Looking at a few facts, rhysmr2 states that he was making around a grand a week; lets say an average £7 a race, 21 races a day, 7 days a week. The figure of £180 as a loss raises a huge red flag in this scenario about whether a 25-1 risk/reward ratio is a sustainable/profitable strategy. A few simple sums will show that this investment plan requires a tick success rate of over 96%. Unreasonable?. In my opinion it is.
User avatar
to75ne
Posts: 2416
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2009 5:37 pm

James1st wrote:I
The worst mistake traders make is in the money management aspect of trading and indeed many people overlooked rhysmr2's own post.
rhysmr2 wrote:...The most annoying thing is I know what I'm doing wrong but I keep doing it! It starts when I use large stakes or double/triple up on my position, I can easily find myself with a massive stake over 1k at sometimes high odds 5/6 and when it goes against me my exit makes things worse, especially in a weak market!

So that leaves me with a large loss...
Rather than trying to appease the obvious distress caused by a large loss, it may serve as better advice to reassess the fundamental money management, risk/reward and the operational viability of the basic trading system.

Its either that or smoke another joint and crack on :ugeek:
The problem would not seem to be that rhymes2 does not adequately understand the fundamentals of money management (Although I don’t claim to know how or what he thinks). It would seem to be that over the last several weeks he as been ignoring/overriding money management, exit positions, going in play when its not part of his strategy etc. in short not doing what he is knows to be successful, and deliberately doing what he knows will lead to failure (discipline shot to pieces)

In turn this is bringing out unpleasant aspects of his personality i.e. Lack of control of his temper. Which in turn would seem to feed back into more negative decision making. A very vicious circle.

I think that is why people are making suggestions such meditation, nlp etc. it would seem to be mind/thought problem as opposed to lack of understanding of the mechanics of pre off horse race trading.

Also I think people on this forum are genuine in trying to help other people (in their individual ways) who wish to be helped. Rhymes2 as always been helpful to others in the past. And I think most people wish to see him recover and turn his situation around.
Zenyatta
Posts: 1143
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

Over the past year I've been trying to develop a number of different semi-automated strategies using Guardian and Excel spreadsheets, based on the idea that the more you can automate your strategies, the better, to try to take the emotion out of it.

It looks like I may have succeeded at last, still need to test for longer to make sure (I had 'false starts' in the past where it looked like I was winning but it was just luck), but it looks like I'm finally Green All Over and have joined the winning club of consistent profit makers at last. I even finally figured out Peter Le's In-Play trick, such a ridiciously simple strategy but I never tried it until now.

So, the way to go IMHO to take the emotion out of it, is to try to develop a range of different strategies and try to automate them as much as possible, as well as having plans to accomodate all eventualities and scenarios where things can go wrong.
User avatar
LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

James1st wrote: The worst mistake traders make is in the money management aspect of trading and indeed many people overlooked rhysmr2's own post.

Rather than trying to appease the obvious distress caused by a large loss, it may serve as better advice to reassess the fundamental money management, risk/reward and the operational viability of the basic trading system.
That's an interesting viewpoint James

4 years ago, I does some analysis on my trading and noticed my % strike rate on sport markets was 85%, yet my profits were marginal.
This was because my 15% losers were big ones. I was either not scratching bad trades quickly enough, or I was getting hit when my stakes were considerably bigger than normal

Therefore, I changed my philosophy. I started placing trades that would win 'x' amount per tick after greening. If I wanted to win £2.50 per tick, I knew that backing a team at 1.50 would require stakes of £375. If I wanted to lay a team at 2.62, it would require stakes of £330 with a liability of £534. My results changed overnight because with a 85% success rate, I knew the occasional losers were no big deal, I was always going to win in the end. As I became more successful my tick sizes and stakes became bigger, but still in proportion with each other.

You're right, money management is a key ingredient of successful trading. This is why I've advocated that BA should include a drop down option of tick sizes including greening. Obviously, I'm the only trader that operates such a bizarre strategy :D
User avatar
jimrobo
Posts: 1289
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:49 pm

Talking about downtime.....I am going to jump on the sleeper train tonight and go and do a few days skiing in aviemore........if anyone is around and fancies some downtime on the slopes and a few beers give me a shout!
User avatar
oddstrader
Posts: 344
Joined: Fri Apr 16, 2010 4:55 pm
Location: Surrey

very envious jim , enjoy!!
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

I'm going to need some anger management after what just happened in the 14:00!

I'd bet on Lindsay's Dream, and after it traded at 1.01 I was getting ready to head across the road to by bookies and collect my winnings, only for it to be gubbed!

You laugh or you cry! :lol:

Jeff
oddstrader wrote:very envious jim , enjoy!!
lilgreenback
Posts: 211
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 11:28 am

That's bad however this PM I slipped my finger on the computer and layed 1k on a horse trading at 1.01 in 14:00.

On the way to the pub to celebrate my winnings I saw a guy in an "Aon" shirt ripping up a betting slip and kicking the dog!! :D
User avatar
rhysmr2
Posts: 427
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 1:24 pm
Location: North East of England

I just thought I'd write a positive post (since I always seem to post about losing large amounts!) I have got my discipline back in check and things are going far more smoothly, Things seem to be back to normal and I hope it stays that way!

Thanks again for all your valuable input, It really helped me get back on track.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Well done! :)

You'll have to teach me how you did it! ;)

Jeff
rhysmr2 wrote:I just thought I'd write a positive post (since I always seem to post about losing large amounts!) I have got my discipline back in check and things are going far more smoothly, Things seem to be back to normal and I hope it stays that way!

Thanks again for all your valuable input, It really helped me get back on track.
Colin
Posts: 4
Joined: Wed Nov 11, 2009 6:40 pm

Hi All
I cured myself of anger by repepeating everything I said when angry but done it in Donald Ducks voice and make it sound realy silly :mrgreen:
believe me it's worth a try
Colin
User avatar
oddstrader
Posts: 344
Joined: Fri Apr 16, 2010 4:55 pm
Location: Surrey

Well done Sir :)
User avatar
to75ne
Posts: 2416
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2009 5:37 pm

nice to hear
Colin
Posts: 4
Joined: Wed Nov 11, 2009 6:40 pm

:lol: Glad you liked it
Post Reply

Return to “Trading Psychology”