Should I go for it?

[Yantraman]

OK so as BF is down again I have decided not to risk my bank anymore on trading. So I thought I would put out a dilemma which I am faced with.

I am currently just a pre race trader only. I have spent the past 9 months monitoring in-play price movements with a view to spotting opportunities. I am particularly interested in uncovering a "Back to Lay" strategy (backing and laying off in running) as it is easier to control liability.

After re-writing my (massive) spreadsheet I have found an "edge" offering returns of approx 50% of my bank per month . Sounds good, however this is gambling in a form that I am not used to, and now the time has come to put real money in the market I am feeling uneasy. There will be losing runs which I will have to cope with. Do I really have enough data?

- I have monitored various race types for 10 months.

- Over 1000 of these races relate to the system I have found to be profitable. This is the data I would use.

I feel I could go on collecting data but there comes a point where you just have to get on with it!!!

Yes I could start by using small amounts, but I want this to really make a decent return, partly so I can spend more time with my partner and less time pre-race trading.

Question:-

1. Anyone else out there use a "back to lay" strategy?
2. Should I go for it?

Thanks for any advice.

[freddy]

The problem with paper trading is that you can never know if your bet would have been matched or not, ie just because you see a price doesn't mean you would be matched at it for your full stake especially in-play.

So there is only really one way to find out imo if it will work and thats with real money, just start small and build up would be my advice.
good luck

[Yantraman]

Yes, its a good point. I have paid close attention to the amounts matched at my exit points in-play and always assumed that I am bottom of the pile.

System flagged up Kilcrea Kim in the 15:00 - nice return from a sp of 7.4!!