Interesting comments.
Peterle - how much were you using to make the 15k? Sounds like a right rollercoaster!
An alternative to Betfair?
Hi Peter
Thanks for the advice.
My aim is to succeed at both Betfair and Forex - I don't see it as an 'either/or'. And I'm pleased to say that, although I'm not yet making a consistent profit, I'm making progress. I think that, one it clicks, I'll be able to up my stakes and make rapid progress.
Yes, with Forex you're up against top pros. That said, like Betfair, the Forex market is irrational due to traders' emotion-based decisions. You didn't make that 15K due to random chance.
It's true you get big swings on Forex. But I've also found that can happen with Betfair too. And at least with Forex you can use a stoploss.
BTW, another advantage of Forex is that, with one trade, you can make more than you make all day with Betfair, once your bank has grown sufficiently. Also, you can practice with a dummy account, meaning that you can hone your technique and build your confidence without risking real money.
Jeff
Thanks for the advice.
My aim is to succeed at both Betfair and Forex - I don't see it as an 'either/or'. And I'm pleased to say that, although I'm not yet making a consistent profit, I'm making progress. I think that, one it clicks, I'll be able to up my stakes and make rapid progress.
Yes, with Forex you're up against top pros. That said, like Betfair, the Forex market is irrational due to traders' emotion-based decisions. You didn't make that 15K due to random chance.
It's true you get big swings on Forex. But I've also found that can happen with Betfair too. And at least with Forex you can use a stoploss.
BTW, another advantage of Forex is that, with one trade, you can make more than you make all day with Betfair, once your bank has grown sufficiently. Also, you can practice with a dummy account, meaning that you can hone your technique and build your confidence without risking real money.
Jeff
PeterLe wrote:Hi Jeff,
The problem I found with Forex is that when I was using a dummy account, I made something like £15K in 10 days (using the BlackDog strategy)..I though I had found the Holy Grail and then on the 11 day I lost it!
It scared me. The market moved so fast(Yes I know I could have had stop losses etc, but I didnt), whereas Betfair, yes it sometimes goes against you, but moves so slow by comparison. I dont think I would ever feel relaxed trading these markets
The other point is, when you enter the Forex arena (or whatever you are trading) you are up against TOP professionals who have every tool at their disposal, much tougher in my opinion.
Why not just focus on Betfair and be the best you can be. Yes it's a much smaller pond, but still plenty of fish? The top traders on here must be making £60K - £100K year easily, probably more for a few. Pound for Pound (net of tax) thats more than the prime Minister!
Regards
Peter
Hi H
Initially I was using £1 ticks and 0.10p, depending upon what I was doing.
I"ve just looked for the last dummy statement but it is on my personal laptop and the PSU has failed.
I did find this one thought from the week before. This was my very first venture (never touched it before)..It seemed quite easy to be honest once I got the hang of it? Beginners luck?
When I got confident (and remember It was only dummy money!), I thought, right lets put it up to £10 ticks!).. Once I upped the Tick size, it was generating big money...but then I realised Its like stroking a Rotweiller!
Regards
Peter
Initially I was using £1 ticks and 0.10p, depending upon what I was doing.
I"ve just looked for the last dummy statement but it is on my personal laptop and the PSU has failed.
I did find this one thought from the week before. This was my very first venture (never touched it before)..It seemed quite easy to be honest once I got the hang of it? Beginners luck?
When I got confident (and remember It was only dummy money!), I thought, right lets put it up to £10 ticks!).. Once I upped the Tick size, it was generating big money...but then I realised Its like stroking a Rotweiller!
Regards
Peter
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Sorry - Just to add to this...Jeff actually helped me with this off line (thanks for your help jeff), so he does know what he is talking about.
For me, I enjoying doing what I am doing on Betfair and doing well, and I know that I am only just scraping the surface, so decided to focus my efforts there..
I think if you trade the Forex, 100% to the strategy, you should be in the positive...but you will have to live and breath it for a good length of time..
For me, I enjoying doing what I am doing on Betfair and doing well, and I know that I am only just scraping the surface, so decided to focus my efforts there..
I think if you trade the Forex, 100% to the strategy, you should be in the positive...but you will have to live and breath it for a good length of time..
Thanks Peter
I should clarify though, in case anyone thinks that I'm a Forex guru, that I've yet to make a consistent profit!
I think the reason I'm not making a living from Forex is due to a variety of psychological factors, such as over-complicating trading. I'm pretty confident that I possess techniques that will give me an edge over time, however.
The Black Dog system that Peter referred to sums up the correct approach to trading Forex IMHO:
'Everyone keeps saying KISS, KISS, KISS; simple is good, then they start talking about ratios! Geez! The market goes up and it comes down. Period. It can get a little more complicated than this, but not by much'.
Jeff
I should clarify though, in case anyone thinks that I'm a Forex guru, that I've yet to make a consistent profit!
I think the reason I'm not making a living from Forex is due to a variety of psychological factors, such as over-complicating trading. I'm pretty confident that I possess techniques that will give me an edge over time, however.
The Black Dog system that Peter referred to sums up the correct approach to trading Forex IMHO:
'Everyone keeps saying KISS, KISS, KISS; simple is good, then they start talking about ratios! Geez! The market goes up and it comes down. Period. It can get a little more complicated than this, but not by much'.
Jeff
PeterLe wrote:Jeff actually helped me with this off line (thanks for your help jeff), so he does know what he is talking about.
If it is full of cowboys, surely that's a good thing, as it means that the market will be easier to exploit. But that's a sweeping statement to make about a market whose fortnightly turnover is equivalent to the world's GDP...
As for avoiding it like the plague, try telling that to some of the financial traders I know who make a very good living from it.
The challenge with Forex is to find a technique that works (and there's a lot of useless systems out there!), and to apply it to the letter. As the author of the system Peter was referring to points out, if you don't follow the rules strictly, you might as well save yourself the bother of trading and just send off a large cheque to the traders you're up against! So as with Betfair trading, it's a case of 'many are called, few are chosen'.
Jeff
As for avoiding it like the plague, try telling that to some of the financial traders I know who make a very good living from it.
The challenge with Forex is to find a technique that works (and there's a lot of useless systems out there!), and to apply it to the letter. As the author of the system Peter was referring to points out, if you don't follow the rules strictly, you might as well save yourself the bother of trading and just send off a large cheque to the traders you're up against! So as with Betfair trading, it's a case of 'many are called, few are chosen'.
Jeff
jimrobo wrote:The professionals I know laugh when you mention forex and say it's full of cowboys and to avoid it like the plague.
I've got several friends who I have met over time who work in the city, generally on the trading and IT side of things, and it's clear some of the big institutions invest a lot of money to get any edge they can. I just can't compete with that. I seem to have done very well at long term investing but that's thanks to Buffett and Graham. I know it's not everybodies cup of tea but I earn money whether I do something or not, whether I sit in front of my PC or not and that's a great feeling.jimrobo wrote:The professionals I know laugh when you mention forex and say it's full of cowboys and to avoid it like the plague.
Peter, I think you're underestimating yourself.Euler wrote: Some of the big institutions invest a lot of money to get any edge they can. I just can't compete with that.
On Betfair, you're up against highly intelligent people and sophisticated organisations, yet you beat the market day after day.
Also, when you take the long-term value approach, you're buying shares from the big institutions you refer to. So whichever method you use, you need to be able to outsmart the City traders.
But each to their own...
Jeff
A couple of Eureka moments for me in the markets.
(1) When I started doing the football pools when I was young. I realised that a lot of people used no skill at all to make thier selections.
(2) The fact that gamblers thought, because something had happened a lot in the past it was thought to be more likely in the future.
Those two guiding principles have stuck in my mind for years.
I think exploiting this behaviour is difficult, because people who are seeking to profit it often fall victim to it themselves!
(1) When I started doing the football pools when I was young. I realised that a lot of people used no skill at all to make thier selections.
(2) The fact that gamblers thought, because something had happened a lot in the past it was thought to be more likely in the future.
Those two guiding principles have stuck in my mind for years.
I think exploiting this behaviour is difficult, because people who are seeking to profit it often fall victim to it themselves!
Quite.
IMHO, one of the hardest challenges a trader faces is to avoid succumbing to very psychological weaknesses you're trying to exploit!
Jeff
IMHO, one of the hardest challenges a trader faces is to avoid succumbing to very psychological weaknesses you're trying to exploit!
Jeff
Euler wrote: I think exploiting this behaviour is difficult, because people who are seeking to profit it often fall victim to it themselves!
Not when the cowboys have more information and are lightspeeds ahead of you. If you can find consistent profits then thats great but if you can do it when the odds are so far against you, you should be trading something that you are on a level playing field with everyone else and you will make far more.Ferru123 wrote:If it is full of cowboys, surely that's a good thing, as it means that the market will be easier to exploit. But that's a sweeping statement to make about a market whose fortnightly turnover is equivalent to the world's GDP...
As for avoiding it like the plague, try telling that to some of the financial traders I know who make a very good living from it.
Not necessarily...
Forex is the biggest casino in the world, so if you can get an edge over the house (and I know people who have), then the earning potential is enormous.
That said, I'd be very happy with income some Betfair traders are making!
But I'm not sure that it's harder to get an edge with Forex than Betfair trading. Remember you're up against banks who once thought that sub-prime mortgages were a first-class investment!
Jeff
Forex is the biggest casino in the world, so if you can get an edge over the house (and I know people who have), then the earning potential is enormous.
That said, I'd be very happy with income some Betfair traders are making!
But I'm not sure that it's harder to get an edge with Forex than Betfair trading. Remember you're up against banks who once thought that sub-prime mortgages were a first-class investment!
Jeff
jimrobo wrote: Not when the cowboys have more information and are lightspeeds ahead of you. If you can find consistent profits then thats great but if you can do it when the odds are so far against you, you should be trading something that you are on a level playing field with everyone else and you will make far more.
I am not talking about betfair trading.
What I am saying is if someone can consitently make a profit on forex where everything is massively stacked against them, they should be able to make a lot more on other financial products where the odds are not stacked as high against them and sufficient scalability.
What I am saying is if someone can consitently make a profit on forex where everything is massively stacked against them, they should be able to make a lot more on other financial products where the odds are not stacked as high against them and sufficient scalability.
Why do you think that your odds are more stacked against you with Forex than with (say) commodity futures or shares?
I'd have thought there was no difference - I'd say all markets are the same in terms of the psychological dynamics that shape them.
Jeff
I'd have thought there was no difference - I'd say all markets are the same in terms of the psychological dynamics that shape them.
Jeff
jimrobo wrote:I am not talking about betfair trading.
What I am saying is if someone can consitently make a profit on forex where everything is massively stacked against them, they should be able to make a lot more on other financial products where the odds are not stacked as high against them and sufficient scalability.