House prices

[Iron]

Well, it seems I was wrong about the UK housing market!

According to the Daily Express, 'leading experts' say house prices are set to soar by 16%: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/249 ... oar-by-16-

Such quality journalism leaves me speechless...

Jeff

[Euler]

You can get some good bargains in the US but it doesn't look like it has bottomed just yet.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/31/real_es ... htm?hpt=T1

[Iron]

It will be interesting to see what happens in the US when or if Ben Bernanke realises that QE needs to stop and/or interest rates need to rise...

I get the impression that (as in this country) the powers that be are merely holding back the rising flood waters...

Jeff

You can get some good bargains in the US but it doesn't look like it has bottomed just yet.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/31/real_es ... htm?hpt=T1

[superfrank]

According to the Daily Express, 'leading experts' say house prices are set to soar by 16%: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/249 ... by-16-Jeff

The Express only has 2 stories which they recycle constantly... "Diana was murdered" and "House prices to rocket".

I agree with you on 'journalism' - it's of a shockingly poor standard these days, especially on housing. They just report press releases from vested interests as news. Coming soon... "Eating red meat every day is good for you says butcher".

[gutuami]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY

quite a pessimistic and boring video but more or less true.

[superfrank]

View of UK house prices from across the pond... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... lenews_wsj

The U.K.'s housing bubble put the U.S.'s in the shade. At their peak, U.K. house prices were at around 5.8 times average earnings, against a normal ratio outside of bubbles of around 3.4 times. They're currently around 4.4 times. By contrast, the U.S.'s ratio of house prices to median income peaked at around 4.8 times, against a trend rate, like the U.K.'s, of around 3.4 times.

Indeed, the U.K. property bubble was more akin to that seen in Japan in the late 1980s. This is a comparison to chill British homeowners' blood, because Japanese property prices have slid for the best part of 20 years.

So far, the Bank of England has managed to underpin the market. Its zero-interest-rate policy and sterling's 25% devaluation from its 2007 peak have helped stabilize prices. But this stability is now looking vulnerable

[Iron]

House prices drop £7,000 amid fragile economy - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/pers ... onomy.html

Jeff

[superfrank]

Four in five homes worth less than five years ago - Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/pers ... s-ago.html

'wonder what the figures are in real terms, i.e. inflation adjusted?

Big price falls for UK housing still look inevitable - Arabian Money
http://www.arabianmoney.net/global-econ ... nevitable/

[superfrank]

http://www.economist.com/node/18925999

[superfrank]

Home sellers 'cut asking prices for first time in 2011'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14183649

The sluggish market this year has meant that 70% of homes put up for sale in 2011 have still not found a buyer, Rightmove said.

At £236,597, average asking prices are still far higher than selling prices.

The average UK selling price, as calculated by the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) is £203,528.

This suggests that sellers or their estate agents are over-valuing homes by 16%.

The reality gap is even greater when asking prices are compared to house prices as calculated by the Halifax or the Nationwide.

The Nationwide says the average house now costs £168,205, while the Halifax says they cost £163,049.

That puts the reality gap at 41% based on the Nationwide's figures or 45% on those from the Halifax.

People can't stay in denial forever.

[Iron]

Very interesting program about a guy who made millions predicting the sub-prime mortgage crisis: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/72756316 ... 4DJn280PSc

Jeff

[superfrank]

Now that's what I call a crash! - peak to trough -76.5%.

The main reason that a nominal house price crash has been avoided is the devaluation/debasement of the £.

If you plotted inflation adjusted house prices since 2007 in swiss francs, aussie dollars, Yen etc. you'd see that prices have more than halved in the last 3 years.

'Wealth' destruction is happening, but it's hidden from the sheeple by BoE policies trashing the currency.

[Iron]

It will be interesting to see if the market soon force Mervyn King to raise interest rates.

If the markets cease to regard it as a certainty that America will honour its debts (which is quite possible, regardless of whether there's a default next week), then they may also think 'If America defaults, there's a good chance that the global financial situation will be such that Britain will too, so I want a higher return on my bond'.

If I were a bond buyer, and I had to put my money somewhere, I'd say that the Swiss and Japanese bonds are the closest thing to a completely safe bet. I was going to include German bonds in that list, but now Germany has pledged so much of its wealth to save the Euro, I'm not certain it's 100% immune from default...

What do you guys think?

Jeff

[superfrank]

John Terry forced to pay £1.74million in flat row
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/ne ... t-row.html

but he allegedly refused to stump up for the apartments, which were priced at £660,000, £555,000, and £527,500

Stockwell makes Peckham feel like Chelsea!

Obviously they had second thoughts.

[Iron]

House prices show first annual fall since 2009

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/house-prices-s ... 56066.html