I was reading my futures (history) book the other day and in the early days of futures markets in Chicago there were 2 exchanges (the Board of Trade and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange).
The Board of Trade had the best markets (grain, soybeans) and the CME had much smaller markets like eggs, turkeys, potatoes and onions (onion trading was then made illegal because of dodgy activities so they had to create new markets to survive and came up with pork bellies and others which still exist today).
What makes these commodity markets (and the modern financial markets) good trading instruments is that there are so many variables that determining the true price is impossible and hence the markets are driven by sentiment as much as anything else - which is what makes pre-race horse racing markets great for trading.
Tennis and cricket are also good for trading because of the scoring systems which tend to produce swingy markets.
Football on the other hand is much less suited to trading because, in-play, the statistically probable outcomes at any point in time are known. I find in-play football markets very dull, and rarely trade them because I know I don't have an edge. Football attracts a huge amount of money on Betfair just because it is the most popular sport, but I think it's better for punters and big gamblers and not very good for traders.
Years ago in the early days of sports spread betting they used to offer "player power" markets based on the Opta stats of a player's performance. I remember once selling Teddy Sherringham in a Man U European game in France because the pre-match report said the pitch was very bumpy (he made up at -5 because he also got booked and substituted and I made a packet on it). David Beckham used to rack up some very big totals because he saw so much of the ball.
If we had a market for each match where selected players were in a win market for the highest number of Opta points (and the points were updated somewhere in-play) then I think it would be a great trading market (especially if it were marketed to punters).
Does anyone have any ideas for new in-play football markets that would be suited to trading?
Why are in-play football markets no good for trading?
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superfrank
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Last edited by superfrank on Thu Jan 12, 2012 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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mister man
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What makes these commodity markets (and the modern financial markets) good trading instruments is that there are so many variables that determining the true price is impossible and hence the markets are driven by sentiment as much as anything else - which is what makes pre-race horse racing markets great for trading.
Tennis and cricket are also good for trading because of the scoring systems which tend to produce swingy markets.
Football on the other hand is much less suited to trading because, in-play, the statistically probable outcomes at any point in time are known. I find in-play football markets very dull, and rarely trade them because I know I don't have an edge. Football attracts a huge amount of money on Betfair just because it is the most popular sport, but I think it's better for punters and big gamblers and not very good for traders.
yeah right statistically predictable, with only 22 individuals in play, which can only vary by one or two three and four sendings off are rare indeed, all of whom can only move left, right, forward or back, and or jump. have the limited number of actions, to run, walk, sprint, stop, turn from 0 to 360 degrees, head, tackle, foul, misjudge, shoot, pass, dribble, all with a highly predictable round object limited in movement to any direction, left right up or down, that only has variable flight, speed, swerve, and projection,depending on the force applied to it by players, goalposts, the pitch and the weather. If you add on to that the very predictable surface of grass, that can only be wet, dry, muddy, heavy, greasy,fast or slow, short cut, long cut, diveted or smooth, and the ambient temperature of the outdoor game, that is again limited by its ability to be cold, hot, wet, humid, windy or still. and you have the makings of predictability itself.
Did anyone mention tactical influences, managerial and staff instructions to players, crowd interaction and its affect on the players.
i think we can all see that yes indeed, football by its very nature is statistiaclly predictable and not suited for trading !!!!!!
Tennis and cricket are also good for trading because of the scoring systems which tend to produce swingy markets.
Football on the other hand is much less suited to trading because, in-play, the statistically probable outcomes at any point in time are known. I find in-play football markets very dull, and rarely trade them because I know I don't have an edge. Football attracts a huge amount of money on Betfair just because it is the most popular sport, but I think it's better for punters and big gamblers and not very good for traders.
yeah right statistically predictable, with only 22 individuals in play, which can only vary by one or two three and four sendings off are rare indeed, all of whom can only move left, right, forward or back, and or jump. have the limited number of actions, to run, walk, sprint, stop, turn from 0 to 360 degrees, head, tackle, foul, misjudge, shoot, pass, dribble, all with a highly predictable round object limited in movement to any direction, left right up or down, that only has variable flight, speed, swerve, and projection,depending on the force applied to it by players, goalposts, the pitch and the weather. If you add on to that the very predictable surface of grass, that can only be wet, dry, muddy, heavy, greasy,fast or slow, short cut, long cut, diveted or smooth, and the ambient temperature of the outdoor game, that is again limited by its ability to be cold, hot, wet, humid, windy or still. and you have the makings of predictability itself.
Did anyone mention tactical influences, managerial and staff instructions to players, crowd interaction and its affect on the players.
i think we can all see that yes indeed, football by its very nature is statistiaclly predictable and not suited for trading !!!!!!
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mister man
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probable outcomes all affected by above...
plus possible variables of fitness of players, injuries during games, and did i mention the referee and his assistants whose decision making processes and outcomes are highly predictable of course... !!!
oh yes probable outcomes are highly predictable !!!!!LOL
plus possible variables of fitness of players, injuries during games, and did i mention the referee and his assistants whose decision making processes and outcomes are highly predictable of course... !!!
oh yes probable outcomes are highly predictable !!!!!LOL
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superfrank
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i am trying to stimulate debate on what football markets could be better suited to trading, given the amount of money it attracts it's a shame imo that the current markets are rubbish for trading.
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mister man
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frank if they are so rubbish for trading why is their £millions traded on some games, currently £50,000 traded in U2.5G thats one market only of many in a SAUDI ARABIAN match, you cant get much more obscure than that, and that doesnt seem like the traders think they are rubbish markets to me.
Belive it or not i profit larger amounts on football with a strategy of being in the game for 15 Minssuperfrank wrote:i am trying to stimulate debate on what football markets could be better suited to trading, given the amount of money it attracts it's a shame imo that the current markets are rubbish for trading.
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enzabella2009
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I apologize if I comment between your discussion. I wanted to point out that most wealthy traders and the most consistent are coming from football. There are some traders in England who earn 200 thousand per quarter. There are traders in Italy that are maintained on the same ammount and there are some across europe ( 2 that I know) who earn 50 thousand to 100 thousand a week. I going to show you a picture that I have already shown here before, I received permission to publish it. I have others but I have not been authorized. This is a combination of preoff trading and in play trading . I leave it to you to judge.superfrank wrote:i am trying to stimulate debate on what football markets could be better suited to trading, given the amount of money it attracts it's a shame imo that the current markets are rubbish for trading.
It`s around £20,000 @ the current exchange.
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Mister Man
I know someone who calculates the win, lose and draw odds on Premiership matches, using statistical analysis of previous matches. Over the course of a season, his odds are extremely accurate.
Superfrank
I disagree about the true odds of a horse being unknowable. The fact that the horse racing markets are so accurate shows that there are people who are very good at assessing horses' true chances.
Jeff
I know someone who calculates the win, lose and draw odds on Premiership matches, using statistical analysis of previous matches. Over the course of a season, his odds are extremely accurate.
Superfrank
I disagree about the true odds of a horse being unknowable. The fact that the horse racing markets are so accurate shows that there are people who are very good at assessing horses' true chances.
Jeff
I suspect that pre-off football matches are often very good for scalping (although I haven't much experience of them). The reason I say that is that they are often pretty flat, which means that you can probably make a profit by offering money within the range.
Jeff
Jeff
mister man wrote:frank if they are so rubbish for trading why is their £millions traded on some games
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superfrank
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proves nothing. he'll have plenty of massive losses too. in-play football trading seems to be very low margin and very high risk (because a goal changes everything). i know some people will be able to make consistent profits through in-play football, but on the whole i think the markets (because of football's scoring system) are poor compared to others for trading.enzabella2009 wrote:I apologize if I comment between your discussion. I wanted to point out that most wealthy traders and the most consistent are coming from football. There are some traders in England who earn 200 thousand per quarter. There are traders in Italy that are maintained on the same ammount and there are some across europe ( 2 that I know) who earn 50 thousand to 100 thousand a week. I going to show you a picture that I have already shown here before, I received permission to publish it. I have others but I have not been authorized. This is a combination of preoff trading and in play trading . I leave it to you to judge.
It`s around £20,000 @ the current exchange.
There's a trading firm called Betting Promotions that specialises in the football markets - see viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1388&hilit=sweden
They bet 700 million+ pounds a year to make net profit of 500,000 pounds and "On a rolling yearly basis the company achieved a net turnover after trading fees of SEK 43.9 million leading to a gross margin of 0.53%".
However, in November this year, Peter wrote that 'They lost money in the first nine months of the year'. That makes you wonder whether the markets have changed, their methods have changed, or they were just lucky previously (although it seems unlikely that they were lucky over what must have been a very large number of trades).
Jeff
They bet 700 million+ pounds a year to make net profit of 500,000 pounds and "On a rolling yearly basis the company achieved a net turnover after trading fees of SEK 43.9 million leading to a gross margin of 0.53%".
However, in November this year, Peter wrote that 'They lost money in the first nine months of the year'. That makes you wonder whether the markets have changed, their methods have changed, or they were just lucky previously (although it seems unlikely that they were lucky over what must have been a very large number of trades).
Jeff
Where people get fooled on football is they assume there is only a 100% chance of a win, away win or a draw. Tipsters and ebook sellers have built business on this mis-interpretation. But I have to say, football market prices are very efficient, which everway you look at them.
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mister man
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all im saying frank is that.
i disagree that the probable outcomes are that predictable, because of the huge number of variables.
it is possible to get an edge as you say over 15min outcomes, so you are right in that regard.
i think the markets we have in football are many and varied and its possible to find something that suits most trading styles.
i cannot therefore agree with your thread title.
as for creating other markets such as opta stats etc, i really dont want to bet on one persons opinion of whether something was a pass or a shot, an unsuccesful pass or an interception.
i will bet on facts, its 1-0 its a corner etc, but i wont bet on arbitary officials opinions of whats happened.
Nor do i want to bet on markets that are corruptable such as number of injuries etc, many markets you could have would be highly suseptible to fixing.
i disagree that the probable outcomes are that predictable, because of the huge number of variables.
it is possible to get an edge as you say over 15min outcomes, so you are right in that regard.
i think the markets we have in football are many and varied and its possible to find something that suits most trading styles.
i cannot therefore agree with your thread title.
as for creating other markets such as opta stats etc, i really dont want to bet on one persons opinion of whether something was a pass or a shot, an unsuccesful pass or an interception.
i will bet on facts, its 1-0 its a corner etc, but i wont bet on arbitary officials opinions of whats happened.
Nor do i want to bet on markets that are corruptable such as number of injuries etc, many markets you could have would be highly suseptible to fixing.