Looks like a double dip recession is about to be confirmed: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... arter.html
Jeff
Recession deepens
We in are in a self re-inforcing cycle.
Business don't invest because confidence is low, which means governments can't keep up payments, which means businesses don't invest because confidence is low, repeat till depression.
The US had the right idea when they Bazooka'd the market. If the EU leaders saw a man dying in the street they would frantically get out their diaries to pencil in a date in a months time to discuss it.
Business don't invest because confidence is low, which means governments can't keep up payments, which means businesses don't invest because confidence is low, repeat till depression.
The US had the right idea when they Bazooka'd the market. If the EU leaders saw a man dying in the street they would frantically get out their diaries to pencil in a date in a months time to discuss it.
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
Just came back from vacations this week and was surprised to see the amount of british tourists has decreased dramatically.
Chitchating with the hotel's manager she told me most tourists are now coming from Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Finland. Go figure...
All the countries with debt problems will need a long term solution, with lower interest and strict fiscal discipline. Frau Merkel knows this, but the EU takes too much time to deepen political issues imho.
Eurobonds will have to kick in but that will cost political independence and tbh don't know if the european leaders will be able to convince their peoples of the generosity of such measures in the middle of a crisis...
Chitchating with the hotel's manager she told me most tourists are now coming from Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Finland. Go figure...
All the countries with debt problems will need a long term solution, with lower interest and strict fiscal discipline. Frau Merkel knows this, but the EU takes too much time to deepen political issues imho.
Eurobonds will have to kick in but that will cost political independence and tbh don't know if the european leaders will be able to convince their peoples of the generosity of such measures in the middle of a crisis...
I think the difference is that, whilst Democrats and Republicans might have differed on the best way of tackling the Lehmann crisis, they were on the side of the same country. By contrast, I think that a game of chicken is taking place between European heads of state, and no-one wants to be the first person to blink...
Jeff
Jeff
Euler wrote: The US had the right idea when they Bazooka'd the market. If the EU leaders saw a man dying in the street they would frantically get out their diaries to pencil in a date in a months time to discuss it.
Hi AntonioCaerMyrddin wrote:Just came back from vacations this week and was surprised to see the amount of british tourists has decreased dramatically.
Chitchating with the hotel's manager she told me most tourists are now coming from Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Finland. Go figure...
That surprises me, given that the euro is so low against the pound right now...
Jeff
The problem with the UK is the gap between have and have not is getting bigger. In the past people spent what they want and did what they wanted, they bought new cars on credit, new clothes - on credit, went on holiday - on credit. When they owed so much they couldn't pay the bills they re mortgaged. The cycle started again.
Now that just isn't possible. House prices are at best stagnant, and mortgages hard to come by. If you have a good job you keep it and try to save money just in case. If you HAD a good job and lost it, you now have a similar job (if lucky) but much less pay.
The unemployment figures go down, but employment figures do not show how many people are in low paid and part time work. Also there is the North South divide. If you live south of Milton Keynes you have a chance of survival. If you don't then your pretty much fooked.
But don't worry! The successive Governments have a great plan. Instead of investing in the regions that are desperate for help. Lets build a high speed rail line. Ok it will cost countless Billions. Ok it will destroy a massive amount of the countryside, cause noise nuisance to 100,000s of people. Destroy communities and the tranquil life that many have saved their whole lives for. (it is coming near to me and I have seen this first hand) decimate house prices even more. But it is a good plan, so that all the poor Northerners can get to London and find employment. Plus it will give employment while it is constructed to any European labourer who can get over here. (We all know the Eastern Europeans work harder for less pay - allegedly).
Is it me or am I the only one who thinks this HS2 is a crazy idea. If they spent the money investing in the Northern Cities to create opportunity for all we wouldn't need to get to London to work.
You can sum up everything that is wrong with the UK by the current Milk pricing "scandal". The supermarkets "work out" how much to it costs to produce a pint of milk and then add what they consider "fair" profit for the producer. What happened to someone making or producing something and then THEY decide how much they charge for it? If that price is too great no one will buy it, if too cheap there is an over demand. It ain't rocket science is it? The supermarkets have too much power. Whose fault is that? Ours because we are too lazy to go to several different business to buy our goods? Or the council planners that bend over backwards to give planning permission to a supermarket who wants to build a superstore? Seen this happen in lts of small towns. tescos build a big store. The Butcher / Baker / Green Grocer all fo out of business. These business source good locally, so that means the local farmer has to sell to the supermarket chain and prices that are dictated to him. we are all sleepwalking into a real disaster. I lie awake at night thinking about it sometimes.
I am really depressed about what is coming. I know I am not alone. This is the biggest social change since WW2. Trust me it is going to end in tears. Hopefully someone will get a grip. I can't see anyone in British politics who is capable to anything like what we need right now. But don't worry our incompetent Government have a scapegoat lined up.........The weather.
Now that just isn't possible. House prices are at best stagnant, and mortgages hard to come by. If you have a good job you keep it and try to save money just in case. If you HAD a good job and lost it, you now have a similar job (if lucky) but much less pay.
The unemployment figures go down, but employment figures do not show how many people are in low paid and part time work. Also there is the North South divide. If you live south of Milton Keynes you have a chance of survival. If you don't then your pretty much fooked.
But don't worry! The successive Governments have a great plan. Instead of investing in the regions that are desperate for help. Lets build a high speed rail line. Ok it will cost countless Billions. Ok it will destroy a massive amount of the countryside, cause noise nuisance to 100,000s of people. Destroy communities and the tranquil life that many have saved their whole lives for. (it is coming near to me and I have seen this first hand) decimate house prices even more. But it is a good plan, so that all the poor Northerners can get to London and find employment. Plus it will give employment while it is constructed to any European labourer who can get over here. (We all know the Eastern Europeans work harder for less pay - allegedly).
Is it me or am I the only one who thinks this HS2 is a crazy idea. If they spent the money investing in the Northern Cities to create opportunity for all we wouldn't need to get to London to work.
You can sum up everything that is wrong with the UK by the current Milk pricing "scandal". The supermarkets "work out" how much to it costs to produce a pint of milk and then add what they consider "fair" profit for the producer. What happened to someone making or producing something and then THEY decide how much they charge for it? If that price is too great no one will buy it, if too cheap there is an over demand. It ain't rocket science is it? The supermarkets have too much power. Whose fault is that? Ours because we are too lazy to go to several different business to buy our goods? Or the council planners that bend over backwards to give planning permission to a supermarket who wants to build a superstore? Seen this happen in lts of small towns. tescos build a big store. The Butcher / Baker / Green Grocer all fo out of business. These business source good locally, so that means the local farmer has to sell to the supermarket chain and prices that are dictated to him. we are all sleepwalking into a real disaster. I lie awake at night thinking about it sometimes.
I am really depressed about what is coming. I know I am not alone. This is the biggest social change since WW2. Trust me it is going to end in tears. Hopefully someone will get a grip. I can't see anyone in British politics who is capable to anything like what we need right now. But don't worry our incompetent Government have a scapegoat lined up.........The weather.
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
The problem with excessive power by the distribution is happening all over Europe.
Imho, it's really a tricky issue, as it is arguable if you should restrain these big companies from opening businesses as they are more competitive and the people validate this by shopping there. You will probably see the baker buying his meat and the butcher buying his bread.
But I understand your worries, people get poor jobs at these places and jobs with more skill and better long term jobs are being destroied.
I agree with you, we might face the biggest social change we have witnessed, social unrest is on the rise everywhere.
Imho, it's really a tricky issue, as it is arguable if you should restrain these big companies from opening businesses as they are more competitive and the people validate this by shopping there. You will probably see the baker buying his meat and the butcher buying his bread.
But I understand your worries, people get poor jobs at these places and jobs with more skill and better long term jobs are being destroied.
I agree with you, we might face the biggest social change we have witnessed, social unrest is on the rise everywhere.
I think that, even if this country's economy had been managed better over the years, mass immigration prevented and the banks properly regulated, we'd still be facing a long-term decline IMHO.
The fact is that we are competing in against countries like Brazil and India, which have increasingly educated workforces that are willing to work at a fraction of our own labour costs. If a widget manufacturer in Manchester is paying his staff £8 per hour, and a rival in Beijing is paying his staff 80p per hour (and isn't tied up in red tape), it's pretty obvious who is going to be more competitive in the global marketplace...
Jeff
The fact is that we are competing in against countries like Brazil and India, which have increasingly educated workforces that are willing to work at a fraction of our own labour costs. If a widget manufacturer in Manchester is paying his staff £8 per hour, and a rival in Beijing is paying his staff 80p per hour (and isn't tied up in red tape), it's pretty obvious who is going to be more competitive in the global marketplace...
Jeff
Britain Unleashed: David Cameron needs a change of heart – and some fire in his belly - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/brit ... belly.html
'This Government’s great tragedy is that it is run by a group of youngish, privileged men who have never known what it is like to be truly excited by economic and political ideas. David Cameron and George Osborne are creatures of the establishment, prisoners of the received wisdom, too interested in power for power’s sake. That is why they don’t have a clue what to do about the intensifying recession, other than print yet more funny money. They may be Thatcher’s children, but their hero is the post-ideological Tony Blair, who squandered her legacy. They want to tweak the status quo, not smash it.'
'This Government’s great tragedy is that it is run by a group of youngish, privileged men who have never known what it is like to be truly excited by economic and political ideas. David Cameron and George Osborne are creatures of the establishment, prisoners of the received wisdom, too interested in power for power’s sake. That is why they don’t have a clue what to do about the intensifying recession, other than print yet more funny money. They may be Thatcher’s children, but their hero is the post-ideological Tony Blair, who squandered her legacy. They want to tweak the status quo, not smash it.'
'England [sic] is just a small island. Its roads and houses are small. With few exceptions, it doesn't make things that people in the rest of the world want to buy. And if it hadn't been separated from the continent by water, it almost certainly would have been lost to Hitler's ambitions. Yet only two lifetimes ago, Britain ruled the largest and wealthiest empire in the history of humankind. Britain controlled a quarter of the earth's land and a quarter of the earth's population.'
Mitt Romney
The above doesn't bode well for the special relationship if Romney gets elected, but it's hard to argue with it...
Jeff
Mitt Romney
The above doesn't bode well for the special relationship if Romney gets elected, but it's hard to argue with it...
Jeff
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
it's recovered about half the ground it has lost since the start of the financial crisis (and that's against a sickly currency).Ferru123 wrote:That surprises me, given that the euro is so low against the pound right now...
GBP/EUR
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&c ... EUR&ntsp=0
the pound is still on the floor against most currencies...
GBP/JPY
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&c ... JPY&ntsp=0
GBP/AUD
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&c ... AUD&ntsp=0
GBP/SGD
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&c ... SGD&ntsp=0
GBP/USD
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&c ... USD&ntsp=0
the idea was that, by trashing the currency, it would protect nominal asset prices and stimulate an export lead recovery.
they've succeeded in the first objective (at the expense of the non-rich) but the the second was always likely to prove elusive.
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
Euler posted this on the Eurozone debt crisis thread and it puts things into perspective...
Steve Keen - The Crisis in 1000 words
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/wp-c ... OrLess.pdf
most people think we're in a "normal" recession and that growth is just around the corner. the truth is that we are in the middle of the biggest financial crisis ever - it has only been stabilised and remains far from resolved.
Steve Keen - The Crisis in 1000 words
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/wp-c ... OrLess.pdf
most people think we're in a "normal" recession and that growth is just around the corner. the truth is that we are in the middle of the biggest financial crisis ever - it has only been stabilised and remains far from resolved.
According to my chart, it's lower now than it was at any point during the crisis (if we're assuming that the crisis started in Sept 2008).superfrank wrote:it's recovered about half the ground it has lost since the start of the financial crisis (and that's against a sickly currency).Ferru123 wrote:That surprises me, given that the euro is so low against the pound right now...
Jeff
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
at the launch of the Euro in 1999 a pound bought around 1.42 Euros.
EUR/GBP - All
EUR/GBP - All
AFAIK, the economic crisis didn't begin in 1999! 
Those were the days when the politicians made public shows of affection towards bankers, and we thought nothing of blowing a billion quid on the Millennium Dome...
Jeff
Those were the days when the politicians made public shows of affection towards bankers, and we thought nothing of blowing a billion quid on the Millennium Dome...
Jeff
superfrank wrote:at the launch of the Euro in 1999 a pound bought around 1.42 Euros.
EUR/GBP - All