how much is real money?

[steven1976]

Im sure its been asked in the past but ive not seen it recently. How much money that is matched, do people think is genuine punters money in the market?
If for example 500K is matched in a race, how much of that do you think is people that went into the race just solely with the purpuse to place a single bet as a gamble regardless of the outcome?

[superfrank]

'haven't a clue but i'm sure it's got significantly smaller over the last few years.

the matched amounts might seem impressive but they're very misleading. it's pretty obvious in many markets that it's just a battle between traders with a net few hundred quid or so of real money that actual moves the market pre-race. in-play traders getting on before the start can also have a significant impact.

[steven1976]

Hi Frank,
Thats what I thought.
cheers

[Euler]

http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2012/12 ... ant-force/

I have some data from Betfair, back in 2003 mind you, that showed traders were 17% of the number of people on a market but more than 50% of the volume.

[superfrank]

re football, any outright big punters would be mad to use BF because there are better prices available elsewhere when commission is taken into account.

[Euler]

I did some analysis on racing and that was very low as well. I think there are fewer 'big' traders around than people imagine. I really struggle to get large bets filled on Betfair and this year its harder than ever.

[superfrank]

you're looking for too much value!

[Euler]

I tend to be at the money, so it appears its the rate at which it fills which is the problem.

[LeTiss]

Yeah, I'm with Peter on this. I've had to redefine my strategies because the money is drying up. I can't push through the large orders with the regularity of before, it just takes an eternity to get filled

[steven1976]

If no one is getting filled, why do volumes on the races stay reasonably consistant. At least they feel like similar volumes to the past but i dont keep records?

[Euler]

That's a decent question that I've been scratching my head about as well. I'm suspicous that the matched bet volumes are steady but the overall fill rate is not at all what it used to be.

[steven1976]

I never really get what you mean fully when talking about fill rate. Do you just mean the speed at which bets are taken or are you meaning if you put for example 500 pound into the market it is not fully filled before the price moves away?

As for the volume part I have my theories but need to keep testing a bit more to be sure. Curious though if others had reasons that would back up my thinking.

[superfrank]

i think the reason might be related to xm. BF openly acknowledge that xm is operated for profit, so by definition they are playing in their own markets. i suspect that the matching algorithm was enhanced at some point this year (start of July was when i noticed the difference) to make it more profitable.

'just a theory, and it might be load of old rubbish, but something definitely changed as Euler says.

[Euler]

I agree with superfrank, something was implemented on the 1st July. I questioned Betfair on it, but they denied that anything, anywhere had been changed.

[steven1976]

I dont agree. I also play at the front of.the market and all the volume being matched is not xm. If it was.xm then the orders still have to be filling in the market