Today's Horse Racing

[Korattt]

Movethechains looks very weak to me in the 15:20

[Korattt]

Movethechains looks very weak to me in the 15:20

[Euler]

Movethechains looks very weak to me in the 15:20

Well done. I'm lacking in motivation on some of these markets!

[alexmr2]

Forgot there's a world war tomorrow. Hopefully it doesn't affect the pre-off markets too much

[Korattt]

Movethechains looks very weak to me in the 15:20

Well done. I'm lacking in motivation on some of these markets!

probably because you’ve been under the weather perhaps?

[MobiusGrey]

Only Kelso and Southwell still standing, I'm surprised there's any racing at all in all honesty. Hopefully there's a bit of volume in these markets making up for a lack of opportunity in the others.

[Andriy]

Southwell now gone as well. May be worth checking Meydan, some Group races and Appleby runners so will attract attention.

[MobiusGrey]

shocking volume on Betdaq for Meydan, shocking as in currently 0

[xtrader16]

Good Times Bad Times runs true to form low of 1.38 - The Racing Post told you it might.

[xtrader16]

KELSO 13:30 - Some classic BIG ACCOUNT action going on on that FAV Grey Skies. Close to 500k matched. They wouldn't let it go above 2.0 once. Every time it hit 1.99 they hammered it back in again. I can see this popping out to 2.2 on the off.

Betfair should limit account to £xx on each Horse Race - lets say £50k matched. MAX. Totally manipulated the market with huge stakes.

[MobiusGrey]

KELSO 13:30 - Some classic BIG ACCOUNT action going on on that FAV Grey Skies. Close to 500k matched. They wouldn't let it go above 2.0 once. Every time it hit 1.99 they hammered it back in again. I can see this popping out to 2.2 on the off.

Betfair should limit account to £xx on each Horse Race - lets say £50k matched. MAX. Totally manipulated the market with huge stakes.

I don't really understand pre-race trading but have always been fascinated by it, hats off to anyone who can make a living out of it. Just out of interest, what would the purpose be of someone not letting it go above 1.99 surely if they're having to keep backing it with increasing sums to hold it at that price they're just giving away a load of value to someone else?

[xtrader16]

I'd assume that they realised the price should be over 2.0 so they backed it downwards and they were averaging out hoping that the lay side would move back upwards but with lower figures - but basically averaging out. I'd also say that there will be BOTs who were backing at 1.99/2.0 and laying at offsets of 2-3 ticks. The pre -off market is pretty complicated but (in my paranoia) I'd suggest there are some big accounts that understand how the market can be controlled with really large volumes of money and intelligent formulas in excel. The people who make thousands of pounds per day are using automation files you cant even dream exist.

But they will never admit it. They wont even tell you they exist. The will gaslight you and say you are just making it up but £550k volume in a Kelso race says differently. They are that greedy they won't even take the day off today. Feel free to criticise me all you like.

[MobiusGrey]

I'd assume that they realised the price should be over 2.0 so they backed it downwards and they were averaging out hoping that the lay side would move back upwards but with lower figures - but basically averaging out. I'd also say that there will be BOTs who were backing at 1.99/2.0 and laying at offsets of 2-3 ticks. The pre -off market is pretty complicated but (in my paranoia) I'd suggest there are some big accounts that understand how the market can be controlled with really large volumes of money and intelligent formulas in excel. The people who make thousands of pounds per day are using automation files you cant even dream exist.

But they will never admit it. They wont even tell you they exist. The will gaslight you and say you are just making it up but £550k volume in a Kelso race says differently. They are that greedy they won't even take the day off today. Feel free to criticise me all you like.

I've long said that pre-race is predominantly just bot vs bot these days and you need some serious skills to compete on any kind of level. Maybe it's just sour grapes on my part as I've tried to crack pre-race and never been able to, easy for me to say 'it can't be done' as I can't do it I suppose but I agree with large parts of your sentiment to be honest. Market manipulation has been around since the dawn of the exchanges, it used to be simple, somone would just stick a large lump on one side of the book so the WOM would be affected and make it look like there was a large amount of buying/selling pressure, this then evolved to the flashers, flashing large sums at prices just outside the current price so people jump in front etc etc. I guess things have evolved a lot since those days but I'm fairly sure there's some absolute beasts of bots out there hoovering up the money.

[ruthlessimon]

(in my paranoia) I'd suggest there are some big accounts that understand how the market can be controlled

The way you get rid of that paranoia is by journaling and collecting data. Anytime you see "big account activity", note down the price they got involved @, note down the BSP, note down if the horse won, & after 1000 examples you should get a rough idea as to the smartness (or dumbness) of the "manipulation".

[Cardano]

KELSO 13:30 - Some classic BIG ACCOUNT action going on on that FAV Grey Skies. Close to 500k matched. They wouldn't let it go above 2.0 once. Every time it hit 1.99 they hammered it back in again. I can see this popping out to 2.2 on the off.

Betfair should limit account to £xx on each Horse Race - lets say £50k matched. MAX. Totally manipulated the market with huge stakes.

I don't really understand pre-race trading but have always been fascinated by it, hats off to anyone who can make a living out of it. Just out of interest, what would the purpose be of someone not letting it go above 1.99 surely if they're having to keep backing it with increasing sums to hold it at that price they're just giving away a load of value to someone else?

Did you notice what the action was on the 2nd Fav at the same time.
It was basically a two horse race and the FAV and 2nd Fav SP were pretty evenly matched with Grey Skies being the slight fav at the off.
Two seconds after the off the BP was 1.94
18/02/2022 13:32:33: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Grey Skies: IPT1 = 2.013 = 2
18/02/2022 13:32:33: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Grey Skies: BP1 = 1.94