Yes pre off is pretty tough. Everyone can pull off a trade but doing that 30+ times a day is a bit of a different animal. Never bothered with in running myself but have seen people with spectacular results. A lad on Twitter is very honest about it, shows big losses and profits. Think goes under the name Doc. Peter may be able to help you.Padawanbewbie wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 6:21 pmI've struggled with pre race to be honest. Are there many of you who trade in running?
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
From memory that's the start of a tricky hour or two. Best quality races have gone, winners done and gone, losers lost and gone. And it's poet's day so that doesn't help because by 430 on a Friday you're past your best and mentally clocking off. If there was a worse time to trade I'd like to know it so min stakes or pack up and wait for better. You've been doing this long enough to know all that though.
Think it's a combination of the quality of markets dropping around that time and myself mentally clocking off like Shaun said. Often my results are a gradual incline and then go off a cliff if I trade for too long which points more towards myself being the problem.
I posted that thread about manual trading fatigue for this reason because trading for 2-3 hours doesn't feel like I'm putting enough time in yet I think I seriously need to consider limiting myself if more often than not I'm losing my profits in the later portion of a trading session.
Just checked my 3 months P&L and that 5-6pm period has been my worst hour of the day, before and after are better so maybe something like clock off at 4pm and come back at 6pm depending on what's on
Sounds like a good idea! Go and eat or have a power napalexmr2 wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 11:46 pmThink it's a combination of the quality of markets dropping around that time and myself mentally clocking off like Shaun said. Often my results are a gradual incline and then go off a cliff if I trade for too long which points more towards myself being the problem.
I posted that thread about manual trading fatigue for this reason because trading for 2-3 hours doesn't feel like I'm putting enough time in yet I think I seriously need to consider limiting myself if more often than not I'm losing my profits in the later portion of a trading session.
Just checked my 3 months P&L and that 5-6pm period has been my worst hour of the day, before and after are better so maybe something like clock off at 4pm and come back at 6pm depending on what's on
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Realrocknrolla
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Dublin_Flyer
- Posts: 692
- Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am
These situations used to blow my mind because I couldn't understand why after such a desperate rush of lay money (assuming it was smart money), everyone is happy to back well under the previous low of all that lay money.
What do you think is the most likely scenario here or how would you explain what happened when the price sharply rises from around 4.6 - 5.6 in a short time, (2k stake matched) before reversing and being pinned underneath the previous low (at volume 4.6)?
Someone thought the true odds were > 6 so were desperate to lay all the money underneath it, the market later determined that their opinion was wrong (going by SP)
Someone thought the true odds were < 4 so manipulated the price up knowing they can make that EV back by taking as much back money over 4.0 as possible
Trader(s) were backing this and the sudden movement up caused them to bottle it and dump their full 2k position leading to the sharp rise up. It then went on to trade as a reversal and you can see the mechanics of how it broke the support level. The smart money only really arrived in the last 30 seconds
I know we can't know for sure and it may be overcomplicating it but I'm curious what peoples thoughts are in terms of smart money, dumb money and manipulation
What do you think is the most likely scenario here or how would you explain what happened when the price sharply rises from around 4.6 - 5.6 in a short time, (2k stake matched) before reversing and being pinned underneath the previous low (at volume 4.6)?
Someone thought the true odds were > 6 so were desperate to lay all the money underneath it, the market later determined that their opinion was wrong (going by SP)
Someone thought the true odds were < 4 so manipulated the price up knowing they can make that EV back by taking as much back money over 4.0 as possible
Trader(s) were backing this and the sudden movement up caused them to bottle it and dump their full 2k position leading to the sharp rise up. It then went on to trade as a reversal and you can see the mechanics of how it broke the support level. The smart money only really arrived in the last 30 seconds
I know we can't know for sure and it may be overcomplicating it but I'm curious what peoples thoughts are in terms of smart money, dumb money and manipulation
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