Strange Match Odds

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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mugsgame
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Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

My mate just rang me with something he had spotted in a Serie A match.
Serie A - Atalanta v Bologna

The draw is 2.58 - which is very short. Out of £83,361 traded in the match odds on Betfair £79,354 of it is on the draw. 95.2% In from 3.2

The correct scores as you would expect as they are all connected have similar patterns as have unders/overs

0-0 has 68% of the amount traded in the CS market matched on it.

It's just so blatant
herbie
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Joined: Mon May 11, 2009 8:56 pm

same every year towards the end of the season...cant believe they allowed to do it
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Euler
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herbie wrote:same every year towards the end of the season...cant believe they allowed to do it
You took the word right out of my mouth!
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mugsgame
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Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

I Tweeted it to Betfair, their integrity team are looking into it. May be absolutely nothing in it. What I am surprised about is Atalanta are not safe from relegation yet.
herbie
Posts: 342
Joined: Mon May 11, 2009 8:56 pm

Interesting Betfairs fixed odds are 2.62 on the draw with the exchange back being 2.6
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mugsgame
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Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

I am quite surprised some of the bookies haven't suspended their markets. Makes you wonder if they have anyone actually looking at this stuff.
It's essential if you want to make any money in this game to understand where money is going and at what volumes.

If any bookie is reading this and are looking for a consultant I may be available on a part time basis :D
demmas
Posts: 64
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:40 pm

The same thing could be said for the this meeting:

Serie A: Chievo - Cagliari [email protected] (betfair)

42 points in Cagliari, Chievo to 39. Neither of the two has nothing more to ask the league, with the relegation zone 32 (Palermo and Genoa), I expect the most boring of the draws 0-0, or 1-1, with hot tea and beer in the interval after the game in total friendship. The most classic of the cookies.On the other hand a share of its kind for an X speaks for itself.
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Euler
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Top eight draws this Saturday

Spezia Vs. Lanciano - Draw odds - 2.08
Cesena Vs. Juve Stabia - Draw odds - 2.1
Chievo Vs. Cagliari - Draw odds - 2.3
Cittadella Vs. Reggina - Draw odds - 3.1
Crotone Vs. Modena - Draw odds - 3.3
Vicenza Vs. Empoli - Draw odds - 3.45
Norwich Vs. Aston Villa - Draw odds - 3.45
Swindon Vs. Brentford - Draw odds - 3.45
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Euler
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I went back through my database which covers 25,000 matches over recent years to examine if there really was a bias in these matches for a draw. I scanned for matches that were 2.30 or lower on the draw. This is because this is an exceptionally low price for the draw. The scan threw up 30 matches with sufficient data and nearly all of them were clubs from the Italian leagues! I averaged out the odds offered on these matches and compared them to the to the actual results and it threw up the following results.

The draw more or less occurred with a frequency that the market had discounted, suggesting that both teams did indeed play for a draw. The market offered average odds which added up to a 56% chance of occurring and the actual results came in at 57%. The curious divergence however came from the record of the home teams. The markets discounted a 28% chance of a home win, but that result only occurred 17% of the time.

Therefore this would seem to indicate that rather than backing or laying the draw, which more or less averages out over time. You should lay the home team. This shifts your potential to profit to a draw or away win and historically the home teams have underperformed in these situations. If you look at the matches in detail you can see that it's the away team that generally has more to lose by losing in these matches and that is also being discounted in these results.
demmas
Posts: 64
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:40 pm

Thank you, very interesting Euler.
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