Which books were they Peter and Peter? Looking for a few to read this winter in front of the log burner.Euler wrote:Actually I'm not sure it was the same book?
Anyone read any good books?
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Hi Andy
The book I was referring to was "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahnneman.
He talks about conjunction fallacy...so an example might be...which is more likely:
1) A favorite is more likely to win a 6F race
2) A Favorite is more likely to win at 6F by 10 lengths
Even though condition 2 is only possible if condition 1 is met, some people would still vote for option 2 as the more likely.
Regards
Peter
The book I was referring to was "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahnneman.
He talks about conjunction fallacy...so an example might be...which is more likely:
1) A favorite is more likely to win a 6F race
2) A Favorite is more likely to win at 6F by 10 lengths
Even though condition 2 is only possible if condition 1 is met, some people would still vote for option 2 as the more likely.
Regards
Peter
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Thanks for that Peter. Will add it to the list!
I'm going through this at the moment and it's an excellent book, well worth reading.PeterLe wrote:Hi Andy
The book I was referring to was "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahnneman.
He talks about conjunction fallacy...so an example might be...which is more likely:
1) A favorite is more likely to win a 6F race
2) A Favorite is more likely to win at 6F by 10 lengths
Even though condition 2 is only possible if condition 1 is met, some people would still vote for option 2 as the more likely.
Regards
Peter
I recently read the new Matthew Syed book - Black Box Thinking..and captured my thoughts below...sorry its a bit long winded 
I saved reading this book until a well earned holiday and having read bounce I was looking forward to it. I read this a month or so ago now, so Ill have to refresh my memory!
If you look at the average customer review on Amazon, you’ll see that the book is highly rated. Im going to buck the trend here as I didn't rate it that highly.
Syed talks about Closed loop systems and Open loop systems. Anyone from an electronics back ground will tell you that Closed sloop Systems take an input from part of a system and feed it back to the input. Nothing new there. (in fact most traders do that especially where they are using automated systems and arguably the good manual traders do the same, some better than others I hasten to add!).
The term or title “Black Box Thinking” is derived from the aviations use of the Black Box System where as Syed puts it “ Failure is data rich”, when something goes wrong in flight and a disaster occurs, the resultant data is painstakingly pulled apart and analysed. Lessons are truly learned.
Compare and contrast that with a industry such as healthcare where unlike the aviation industry of complete openness and non judgemental approach, a blame culture exists (perhaps fuelled by the way these institutions are prone to law suits etc)....or so Syed suggests...
This theme ran through the whole book and the author seemed to labour the point (almost to the point where I was thinking in my mind “ He’s not going to go back over that again is he?)…Not only that, I was disagreeing with him.
I dont work in the medical industry (maybe someone reading this does?) but I though he was doing an injustice somewhat. I think medical systems have come on leaps and bounds this last ten years and had I been a surgeon, I wouldn't have taken kindly to his analogies and comparisons.
I cant remember the book I read some time time ago (think it was by Kahneman), where the author explains the techniques employed in A&E these days in spotting various conditions. This was almost a contradiction in terms with the aforementioned book.
I remember looking at the % counter on my Kindle and thinking Ive read 30% of the book now and dont feel like Ive learned much. I dont mean that to sound like a know it all, but I genuinely felt that.
At 50% it started to get interesting. He touched on the phenomenal success of the Sky Cycling team and why they are dominating the podiums in recent times. His analysis spanned about half a dozen pages and I was left wanting to learn more.
He def missed a trick here. If you are going to find a technique of Black Box thinking in action today, then surely it could be found here and elaborated on! (The Sky team by the way, sough to employ a system where the goal wasn't to find areas in which big leaps forward could be capitalised on, rather the goal is to strip everything down to the nuts and bolts of the full end to end process and see lots of small areas when small gains could be realised in each component part.
Lots of small gains add up to big gains. I dont know much about this, but I intend reading up more on this in the future. It gets you in the mood for seeking ways of being a better trader
All in All, I felt a bit disappointed, especially as I enjoyed his other book - Bounce. Im not saying it was a waste of time, but I truly think it could have been better.
Regards
Peter
(By the way; I expect there maybe people on the forum thinking “ I couldn't be bothered reading that, what is there to gain?” Well Im 100% sure there are people trading using “Black Box thinking” on Betfair even some on this forum and whilst that’s the utopian dream (even if you had enough free time!), you need to working along this path to get up there with the better traders.
…and to finish on a real life example..having thought about team Sky I revisited a newish system Im working on (which seemed to be floundering a little of late) and broke it down into its component parts. To see if small gains could be made. The blue line represents the day a very subtle change was made and I can already see it is paying dividends. (I have this system running on three systems; one of them is the unchanged version, so I have a point of reference rather than it being down to luck.
Makes you think!
I saved reading this book until a well earned holiday and having read bounce I was looking forward to it. I read this a month or so ago now, so Ill have to refresh my memory!
If you look at the average customer review on Amazon, you’ll see that the book is highly rated. Im going to buck the trend here as I didn't rate it that highly.
Syed talks about Closed loop systems and Open loop systems. Anyone from an electronics back ground will tell you that Closed sloop Systems take an input from part of a system and feed it back to the input. Nothing new there. (in fact most traders do that especially where they are using automated systems and arguably the good manual traders do the same, some better than others I hasten to add!).
The term or title “Black Box Thinking” is derived from the aviations use of the Black Box System where as Syed puts it “ Failure is data rich”, when something goes wrong in flight and a disaster occurs, the resultant data is painstakingly pulled apart and analysed. Lessons are truly learned.
Compare and contrast that with a industry such as healthcare where unlike the aviation industry of complete openness and non judgemental approach, a blame culture exists (perhaps fuelled by the way these institutions are prone to law suits etc)....or so Syed suggests...
This theme ran through the whole book and the author seemed to labour the point (almost to the point where I was thinking in my mind “ He’s not going to go back over that again is he?)…Not only that, I was disagreeing with him.
I dont work in the medical industry (maybe someone reading this does?) but I though he was doing an injustice somewhat. I think medical systems have come on leaps and bounds this last ten years and had I been a surgeon, I wouldn't have taken kindly to his analogies and comparisons.
I cant remember the book I read some time time ago (think it was by Kahneman), where the author explains the techniques employed in A&E these days in spotting various conditions. This was almost a contradiction in terms with the aforementioned book.
I remember looking at the % counter on my Kindle and thinking Ive read 30% of the book now and dont feel like Ive learned much. I dont mean that to sound like a know it all, but I genuinely felt that.
At 50% it started to get interesting. He touched on the phenomenal success of the Sky Cycling team and why they are dominating the podiums in recent times. His analysis spanned about half a dozen pages and I was left wanting to learn more.
He def missed a trick here. If you are going to find a technique of Black Box thinking in action today, then surely it could be found here and elaborated on! (The Sky team by the way, sough to employ a system where the goal wasn't to find areas in which big leaps forward could be capitalised on, rather the goal is to strip everything down to the nuts and bolts of the full end to end process and see lots of small areas when small gains could be realised in each component part.
Lots of small gains add up to big gains. I dont know much about this, but I intend reading up more on this in the future. It gets you in the mood for seeking ways of being a better trader
All in All, I felt a bit disappointed, especially as I enjoyed his other book - Bounce. Im not saying it was a waste of time, but I truly think it could have been better.
Regards
Peter
(By the way; I expect there maybe people on the forum thinking “ I couldn't be bothered reading that, what is there to gain?” Well Im 100% sure there are people trading using “Black Box thinking” on Betfair even some on this forum and whilst that’s the utopian dream (even if you had enough free time!), you need to working along this path to get up there with the better traders.
…and to finish on a real life example..having thought about team Sky I revisited a newish system Im working on (which seemed to be floundering a little of late) and broke it down into its component parts. To see if small gains could be made. The blue line represents the day a very subtle change was made and I can already see it is paying dividends. (I have this system running on three systems; one of them is the unchanged version, so I have a point of reference rather than it being down to luck.
Makes you think!
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Cheers for that review Peter.
I have heard from others that the book isn't as good. They discussed it on a couple of the podcasts I listen to and they weren't that impressed so you are not alone in thinking it isn't his best work.
A book you might be interested in if you haven't already read it is called 'The checklist Manifesto'. It is very relevant in terms of healthcare.
I have heard from others that the book isn't as good. They discussed it on a couple of the podcasts I listen to and they weren't that impressed so you are not alone in thinking it isn't his best work.
A book you might be interested in if you haven't already read it is called 'The checklist Manifesto'. It is very relevant in terms of healthcare.
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WilliamValle
- Posts: 5
- Joined: Sat Nov 28, 2015 2:30 pm
Yes, I also highly rate 'Trading in the Zone'.
can anyone recommend me a book/books on probability. i want to learn more but i'm reading all these reviews on amazon etc but still not sure whats going to be best for me. basically i have a grasp on the idea's from the mark douglas & van tharp books and can implement what i need to within my trading but i think i can only get better with a deeper understanding on the subject. i am not very mathematical and it seems a few of the books might be abit technical and go right over my head 
I read and enjoyed.Wobbler wrote:can anyone recommend me a book/books on probability. i want to learn more but i'm reading all these reviews on amazon etc but still not sure whats going to be best for me. basically i have a grasp on the idea's from the mark douglas & van tharp books and can implement what i need to within my trading but i think i can only get better with a deeper understanding on the subject. i am not very mathematical and it seems a few of the books might be abit technical and go right over my head
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0307275175/ref=rdr_ext_tmb
http://bayesianthink.blogspot.com.au/20 ... r8uWBVx05k
gazuty wrote:I read and enjoyed.Wobbler wrote:can anyone recommend me a book/books on probability. i want to learn more but i'm reading all these reviews on amazon etc but still not sure whats going to be best for me. basically i have a grasp on the idea's from the mark douglas & van tharp books and can implement what i need to within my trading but i think i can only get better with a deeper understanding on the subject. i am not very mathematical and it seems a few of the books might be abit technical and go right over my head
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0307275175/ref=rdr_ext_tmb
http://bayesianthink.blogspot.com.au/20 ... r8uWBVx05k
thanks for the reply will have a look
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marksmeets302
- Posts: 527
- Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm
Principles of statistics by MG Bulmer is a book I reach for whenever my head is about to explode doing statistics. Concepts are explained very well in layman's terms (with examples) and then repeated in the form of formulas.
One topic I keep revisiting is tests for significance.
One topic I keep revisiting is tests for significance.
thanks will check that out as wellmarksmeets302 wrote:Principles of statistics by MG Bulmer is a book I reach for whenever my head is about to explode doing statistics. Concepts are explained very well in layman's terms (with examples) and then repeated in the form of formulas.
One topic I keep revisiting is tests for significance.
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Just in case people don't know, if you are an Amazon Prime member, you have the option when buying items to have them delivered on the 'No Rush' delivery option which means your order takes between 3 - 5 days as opposed to normal next day delivery.
Though from my experience it is pretty much 2 days. This then gives you either a £1 credit or £3 credit to spend on various digital items, kindle books being one of them.
The amount they offer seems to vary, but during busier periods they up it to £3, like after Black Friday and at present.
Also if you were ordering, say 5 items, you can break the order down and do five orders of one item. That will then give you 5 x credits. So at present that would be £15 to spend on Kindle books.
As a family we put all our orders through the one account where possible, even though we all live in different parts of the country. As such we have had several hundred pounds worth of free kindle books to share amongst us in the last 12 months alone.
So it is well worth doing.
Hopefully that is of use to some - I have bought several of the books on this thread for free
Though from my experience it is pretty much 2 days. This then gives you either a £1 credit or £3 credit to spend on various digital items, kindle books being one of them.
The amount they offer seems to vary, but during busier periods they up it to £3, like after Black Friday and at present.
Also if you were ordering, say 5 items, you can break the order down and do five orders of one item. That will then give you 5 x credits. So at present that would be £15 to spend on Kindle books.
As a family we put all our orders through the one account where possible, even though we all live in different parts of the country. As such we have had several hundred pounds worth of free kindle books to share amongst us in the last 12 months alone.
So it is well worth doing.
Hopefully that is of use to some - I have bought several of the books on this thread for free
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Flashboys, recommended by people on this thread, is currently only 99p on Kindle:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Flash-Boys-Mich ... =flashboys
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Flash-Boys-Mich ... =flashboys