Wimbledon 2013

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Euler
Posts: 24816
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

I've been playing around during Wimbledon with my own variation on the slam tracker momentum. I don't know if I'm on the right track at the moment or not. But I will keep plugging away on the data I collected from Wimbledon.
dmbusa
Posts: 274
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 8:33 am

Well that torn it, just been told we are out for Lunch tomorrow @2pm :(
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Euler
Posts: 24816
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

I'm off to the beach for the morning, have some lunch then get back to watch the final in the afternoon. I'm not going to trade it.
dmbusa
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Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 8:33 am

Enjoy, I'll be getting two hours or so of "it's the bookie who wins" etc.
Last edited by dmbusa on Sat Jul 06, 2013 6:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
PeterLe
Posts: 3715
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Well I lost a fair chunk on the tennis, I think Ive come to the conclusion that its not as easy as I thought!
I had a decent day on the horses so up on the day (at this moment!). Not going to trade the final tomorrow, family BBQ, so will just enjoy the match..hope Murray wins, but cant see it somehow?
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Redhead
Posts: 252
Joined: Wed Mar 20, 2013 11:01 am

kelpie wrote:
Redhead wrote:Fingers badly burnt on that one, here's hoping I call the Mens Final tomorrow right. Im off into the sun with a drink.
Have you spotted the lay button? I think it's pink coloured

;)
Ha-ha, fair point I'm still new to this and have some bad habits to iron out but I think I'm on the right track, at least I caught Bartoli's final drift and recovered a bit of cash.
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Redhead
Posts: 252
Joined: Wed Mar 20, 2013 11:01 am

Well it all wraps up today with the long predicted Mens Final between Djokovic & Murray.

Lets have a look at some stats.


I found their last encounter in the Australian Open final boring to be honest; I don't expect this match to be like that though. The grass gives Murray his best chance to beat Djokovic.

Both have serious worries on their second serves.

Djokovic only won 39% against Del Potro and similarly struggled with Berdych (60%) and Haas (55%).

Murray has struggled too, he fared better against Janowicz (71%) but Verdasco (55%) and Youzhny (40%) caused some real problems.

Murray's first serve is powerful and difficult to attack and he'll need to keep up a high percentage (He’s been serving at close to 70%). If he doesn't he'll be in trouble.

I was very impressed by Djokovic's serving against Del Potro - he hit in the vicinity of 22 aces and his serve got him out of trouble on numerous occasions.
In fact, the Serb's ground game was inferior to that of the Big Man - not surprising really when one considers the enormous power that was coming at him. The fact that Djokovic held up under that onslaught says a lot about his own weapons and defensive skills. I particularly thought Nole’s Forehand was pretty impressive. It stood up reasonably well in those crosscourt duels he engaged in with the big man. He won't be under the same pressure on that wing against Murray that's for sure.

Murray does only one thing better than Djokovic in my opinion and that is touch, Murray has more variety and he'll need to use it to break up the Serb's rhythm.
Murray can't let Djokovic stay on the baseline, he must move him around and bring him forward to try and make him hit unforced errors(he hit 48 against Del Po and that won’t be good enough here)
He also must try to extend the points when he can – Djokovic, super fit as he is, must have some residual tiredness after his marathon with Del Potro. A long match could be bad news for Djokovic.

Djokovic is a better player with better weapons, Murray has plenty of weapons of his own but he's not quite as good as the world No.1 in most categories.

Finally Djokovic has a Wimbledon title and Murray is under great pressure to bring one home. I’m sure Djokovic will be a little more relaxed and if he is that could be reflected in a lower error count, but Lendl’s definitely got Murrays mental game almost perfect now and I can’t see Andy crumbling like he used to.

I can’t say who will win for certain but I feel the winner of the first set is going to have a massive advantage

Either way, I'm hoping for a classic.

All the best in the markets
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Bit disappointed by the early morning activity

Plenty of money, but the fill rate is sluggish and there's no real price movement

I've been using BA 'Make Market' facility, as that has been the best tactic so far. It's all just 1 tick scalping though
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kelpie
Posts: 341
Joined: Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:40 am

LeTiss 4pm wrote:Bit disappointed by the early morning activity

Plenty of money, but the fill rate is sluggish and there's no real price movement

I've been using BA 'Make Market' facility, as that has been the best tactic so far. It's all just 1 tick scalping though
Agree. Bit quiet although emotional money is starting to tighten around Murray - somewhat.

out of interest, when you use the Make Market, do you not find you get stuck with inefficient backs if the market's rising?
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Redhead
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Joined: Wed Mar 20, 2013 11:01 am

Djokovic has come out of the gates trying to pull Murray wide on both sides of the court. Murray's trying to be aggressive with the return and his serve. There squaring up nicely.
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Redhead
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How many break points did it take Murray to put that game to bed, 7-8? :shock:
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kelpie
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Any chance to back Djokovic at 2.0 should be grabbed
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Redhead
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kelpie wrote:Any chance to back Djokovic at 2.0 should be grabbed
Thats what I was thinking but I missed the first chance, had the kids in my ear. :(
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Redhead
Posts: 252
Joined: Wed Mar 20, 2013 11:01 am

Got him @ 2.14
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kelpie
Posts: 341
Joined: Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:40 am

Nice. I took Djoko at 2.0

Once Murray chokes on the tiebreak the book is going to look VERY different
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