Is Trading Getting Harder?

[PeterLe]

Morning I was looking through my records last night and comparing my P&L's.
Although I seem to be working harder than ever on my trading, my P&L is only a shadow of what I was making 18 months ago. I cant really complain as this is a second income for me and Im still doing OK, I am on average thousands down per month on what I was doing say 18 months ago.
I just wondered how others were feeling particularly the full time guys.
If Im down, then that must be going somewhere.
My mix is prob 80:20 Auto/Manual trading. For the first time since I started on here (2007) my manual trading is comparable with the auto in terms of profit.
It must be hard if you are a newbie just starting out on this road.
I was just interested to hear from others, is it really getting harder or is it just me?
Regards
Peter

[giulio2010]

It's defenately getting harder....I think lerning about the horses is very important...Some gambling skills need to be add and adapt to the already trading skill..

[barlorca]

Of course it is, a basic rule of economics is supply and demand. As more trade rather than just bet, markets opportunities that were available in the past shrink in size.

Trades are made more frequently, and edges you had previously are curtailed.

"Newbies" gain experience and so the pool of traders increase, but not always at the same rate as the size of funds in markets.

Markets on events have increased in numbers so traders splinter, into their markets of expertise.

It now requires more work for the same or lesser rewards.

What's your cut off point?

[jimrobo]

definitely. I am making way less than I made 18 months ago. More competition combined with weakening markets. Thats what the PC does though. The markets are only going to get smaller on betfair is the bad news. There may be a reversal when the tipping point is reached on betdaq but until then as long as there is a PC and more liquidity on betfair we are a dying breed.

[barlorca]

Jimrobo makes an interesting point about competitors to betfair and tipping points.

Betfair is to a degree is currently in a monopolistic
position,and more competition means lower deductions.

Lower deductions mean smaller changes in odds needed to generate profit.

Roll on greater competition

[Euler]

I'd be surprised to see a market get easier over time. But, as correctly pointed out, because Betfair aren't doing a good job on the marketing of the exchange at the moment, the shrinking volume means more people fighting over less pie, so that is bound to make it more competitive.

I have more strategies than accounts, so I tend to focus on refining the best performers rather than just trying and increase volume. But also I've broadended what I do, so that has helped offset any decline elsewhere.

I also guess it depends what base you are working from. If you are working from a higher base then you will feel any decline, but if you are working from a low one, there is still probably a lot of room above you.

[steven1976]

Virgin Pie these days! Feels like being a blonde fresh off the plane walking round Bangladesh at 11pm.

Now that the exchange is hidden away, I guess we all have got to accept that its war games of trader against trader.

[kelpie]

Don't think trading is getting harder, in my view. The same edges from years ago still work, more or less.

But I do think there is a profileration of trading platforms. Feels like dozens in the last few years - especially binary options, which has created smaller and smaller barrels in which to find fish. Before, BF felt like 90% of my trades, now it must be maybe half. Haven't totted it up. But I do feel in a day I'm handling three or four corproates

As a sidenote, I doubt betdaq will make trading easier just because they've distanced themselves from the PC. Badbrokes have A TON of tricks in their pockets just waiting to surface... if they ever kill off betfair they'll slaughter full time traders

[Euler]

Betfair have told me they are going to change the home page so the exchange is less hidden. Lets see if they do. There results are due next week so that should be interesting.

[steven1976]

Peter,
Are bf putting bets they take on the sports book onto the exchanges? How about their cash outs on fixed markets. How does that work? Sorry, I'm lazy but I know you will be keeping track on these things. I actually expected their sports book to be better for exchanges as I expected it to make things easier for the lazy punter with traditional odds and then dropping their bets onto the exchange but at the moment especially on the horses it feels like their is very little coming from anywhere and even the smallest of bets you get chased out if your not prepared.
Ste

[Euler]

I expected it to make things easier for the lazy punter with traditional odds and then dropping their bets onto the exchange but at the moment especially on the horses it feels like their is very little coming from anywhere and even the smallest of bets you get chased out if your not prepared.
Ste

That was how it was positioned with me, then in the last conference call they said cash out would use the exchange, but that didn't either!

In my last conversation with them, they did indicate much more linkage to the exchange in the near future. But I'd rather wait and see what they actually do. I did put across that hiding the exchange and forming no linkage with it was a grave mistake from my viewpoint. After all, the sportsbook is generating so little revenue in the scheme of things. I can't understand why they have risked so much on the sportsbook being a success. That wasn't what the brand was built on and therefore I think it will be hard for them to establish themselves there with any credibility. It's like Coke saying they quitting the soft drinks business because there is more money in sausage rolls.

I really feel they should have stuck the sportsbook under a different brand. It's going to be interesting to see how much damage they will bear on the exchange until they are forced to do a volta face.

I actually traded Betdaq very well last week. For the tiny cut I take in profit I provide significant liquidity. I'm always at a loss at to why Betfair can't see this.

[steven1976]

Do coke do diet sausage rolls? That would be a sure winner!

[barlorca]

What you believe is immaterial, it is how you respond to it that counts.

Money (maybe less) can always be made if you adapt to new situations.

Tough I know, but if your aim is to make a profit you adapt! Simples.

[LeTiss]

I'm going to buck the trend here, I've been performing better than 12 months ago

I think some big hitting sport traders have left, so I'm finding many markets easier to read, as it appears there's more novices ready to spank

It perhaps reflects my different trading style to many here

[Zenyatta]

For me it's always the same as ever it was: completely impossible