LTD lay the draw went wrong why????????

[mindiawl]

Hi, I wonder if anybody could help me please?

I have been doing £100 LTD and cashing out after first goal for a few weeks now and have had successful until the Wigan v Arsenal game yesterday.

Ok the home team Wigan were at odds of around 6.00 and the visitors Arsenal were odds on.

I laid the draw @ 4.6 and sat back as usual for a goal to be scored.

As usual as every minute goes buy my green goes deeper and deeper in to the red (As expected) as it always does.

It was down to around 2.9 around £60 red roughly when the Home team Wigan scored a goal by penalty in the second half.

On every one I have done before the back the draw odds jump up to about 6.5 much higher than my entry point so I can cash out at a profit.

However this time it did not as it only jumped back up to 3.4 resulting in a cash out loss of £33.54 gutted.

What made this game so different why did the odds not jump back up high as usual?

Please help as I don’t want to get caught like this again.

Also has anybody got any advice on tactics of LTD or any other systems that can be used with football please?

Thanks

[marko236]

Because Arsenal are faviorites to win, when Wigan scored the market still expected Arsenal to come back and get the draw thats why the odds didn't go up very high.

If Arsenal had scored first you would of cashed out with a profit.

[mindiawl]

So would the lesson learnt here be not to do this trade if its the away team that are odds on and not the home team or was it just unlucky for me it happened this way?

[marko236]

If you think the best team are going to score first and you can get it right enough times to make a profit long term go for it.

[LeTiss]

LTD is no different to any recognised strategy - it works perfectly when goals go your way.....however

A) 0-0 Draws
B) Heavy favourites going behind

These 2 situations are real flies in the ointment

[woodhousejj]

So would the lesson learnt here be not to do this trade if its the away team that are odds on and not the home team or was it just unlucky for me it happened this way?

Hi - Suggest you look at Soccer Mystic - to simulate what if scenarios - and as all of the footy markets are linked maybe you should simulate for possible insurance hegdes - such as backing Wigan 1 - 0 although if the favourites odds are too short even this may not be of help. There are plenty of BA videos for help on using Soccer Mystic. Remember to use Soocer Mystic only as a guide.
John

[mindiawl]

Thanks everyone

[burdo77]

Try drip feeding your bet to reduce your liability over time . U will get better results .

[kelpie]

Agree with burdo.

You need to rejig your staking to accumulate your lays, down to 1.5 if that's what it takes, and meanwhile build up your backs below 2.0.

Finetune that and your reds will be much less painful. Automation is also your friend here because the draw below 2.0 is a straight line to 1.0

As a general note, the book has largely engineered lay the draw out of the market as a sustainable profitable strategy... other edges are needed.

[mindiawl]

Thanks