The Derby 2014 - fair dinkum!!

[JollyGreen]

Well once again we have a talking horse in the Derby. Last year we had Dawn Approach and you'll recall I said he was too short and unlikely to stay. We all know the result of the Derby 2013

I did say Ruler of the World was my tentative choice and he actually won the race. I used Dosage Index which is based on the breeding influence of the sires. Here is a list of previous winners

Ruler of the World 1.05 0.26
Camelot 0.94 0.16
Pour Moi 0.78 -0.04
Workforce 1.00 0.23
Sea the Stars 3.00* 0.81
New Approach 0.89 0.22
Authorised 0.86 0.08
Sir Percy 0.54 -0.50
Motivator 1.43 0.46
North Light 1.13 0.15
Kris Kin 1.05 0.12
High Chaparral 0.82 0.00
Galileo 1.11 0.28
Sinndar 1.56 0.41
Oath 1.86 0.45
High Rise 0.82 -0.10

So to this year's race and the hot favourite Australia. He hasn't shown his hand so to speak apart from a couple of egg and spoon races in Ireland the only race on which to judge him is the 2000 Guineas. Okay so he won a Group 3 in Ireland but he beat trees that day IMHO. There is very little fault I can find in his pedigree. He is by Galileo a previous Derby Winner and out of Ouija Board an Oaks winner and one of the best fillies we have seen of late. The Dosage for Australia is good at 1.0 0.19 so where can we find fault? He came 3rd in the 2000 Guineas and everyone was talking about Kingman that day. The main reason trotted out by the TV experts was his Pedigree. Kingman was bred for 1m and Australia was not. They seemed to forget the winner Night Of Thunder was bred for 1m4f and yet he won despite veering sharply left at the finish! Night of Thunder has the same Galileo line on his Dam's side i.e. Galileo is his Grand Sire.

So that suggests he wasn't really hard done by in that race. Admittedly the pace on his side was not strong so basically he was doing a lot of the work a long way out. I do see that as the main excuse and not his pedigree.

I use a simple speed rating system when I look at a race and I am not really that interested in the old lengths/seconds collateral method that TV Pundits hang onto as if their life depends on it!

Anyway I had Australia running at a rating of 105 for the 2000 Guineas with Kingman at 105 and Night of Thunder at 109. I made allowances for the swerve at the end and Australia's lack of pace. So the TV pundits will now point to Kingman's romp in the mud at the Curragh in the Irish 2000 Guineas but there is a real problem with that form. Yes, he won well, but basically they went very steady and then Kingman quickened up at the end. The pace was not true so it is always dangerous to rate form where they all have a steady hack and then run like hell at the end. I am not knocking the winners, far from it, I am just saying I cannot base any solid form on that race.

So we are still left in the dark about Australia. The problem could be the ground with showers forecast and some of them heavy. The clerk of the course has reported 6mm this morning. AP O'Brien has already stated he doesn't really want ground softer than good. Well if 6mm has already been deposited and perhaps more on the way it has to be a concern.

So what can beat him? Well here are the Dosage numbers for the runners. I have the previous winners above so you can see which ones suit. Remember that Sea the Stars was an exception to the norm.

Arod 1.5 0.45
Australia 1.0 0.29
Ebanoran 0.89 -0.07
Fascinating Rock 1.29 0.13
Geoffrey Chaucer 0.82 0.08
Impulsive Moment 0.93 0.11
Kingfisher 0.92 0.17
Kingston Hill 0.90 0.10
Orchestra 1.20 0.27
Our Channel 3.00 0.83
Pinzolo 0.53 -0.23
Red Galileo 1.0 0.17
Romsdal 0.74 -0.05
Sudden Wonder 0.88 0.06
True Story 0.67 -0.15
Western Hymn 0.82 -0.10

You can see that Our Channel looks to have a speedy pedigree but him aside they all look okay. Yes, some are better than others but horses in the Derby rarely get to give their true running prior to the actual race. I often joke you have to enter a Derby horse before it is born!

The current horse being touted as a contender is Kingston Hill and he does look progressive. He was 8th in the 2000 Guineas but never really in it. He switched his position and was running on at the finish. You cannot dismiss him too quickly for this race. I like True Story and I would forgive him his run in the Dante. The Racing Post reported it as a strong pace but this horse is a true 1m4f candidate whereas the others were better suited to 1m2f. I felt The Grey Gatsby had everything run to his favour that day and that 1m2f is the end of his stamina. My concern for True Story today is the same as Australia, the going. He needs better ground but he has some stamina in his pedigree so he may be running on when others are crying enough. Another potential dark horse is Romsdal who has shown himself a decent middle distance type. He was supplemented for the race and his run at Chester where he just failed to catch Orchestra shows he has the ability. He is another who will be running on at the end and would not be inconvenienced by the rain.

So my three against the field would by Romsdal, True Story and Kingston Hill. It's a tricky one as too much rain would not suit True Story but would probably be okay for Romsdal and Kingston Hill.

Australia is a potentially good horse, Pegasus if his trainer is to be believed but at 2.88 - no thank you!