Match Previews - 10th July

[Redhead]

Morning Guys, here is today's preview courtesy of http://www.tennisratings.co.uk

It's day four of this week's tournaments, but in the case of ATP Stuttgart, it's effectively day three with seven second round matches and the remaining first round match still to be played after rain in Germany.

A match which should be of interest is Fabio Fognini's clash with Andrey Golubev. The Italian will be very pleased to get away from the grass courts and onto his favoured clay, and starts at around 1.30 for this. This looks to be a few ticks on the short side, but nothing exceptionally wrong with that price.

What makes this a match of particular interest is that both players are much stronger on return than serve and hence projected holds are low - Fognini has broken 35.4% on clay in the last 12 months, and Golubev 30.3% (which is very impressive for a low-ranked player) and we should see breaks of serve in this.

I like laying either player's serve when the set is on serve and the price is low enough to do so, and I also like laying Golubev a break up. He's lost a break lead an above-average 37.0% in the last 12 months, according to the Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheets, and Fognini has recovered a break deficit 37.2%. Fognini is actually worse at losing break leads, as his concentration and mentality often are not consistent, but at 19.4%, Golubev's deficit recovery percentage is very poor indeed.

In other men's matches today, there are three players - Radu Albot, Yann Marti and Philip Davydenko from the Challenger Tour who are heavy underdogs but have atrocious service hold percentages, even on the lower level tour. If they get in front in their matches, it should be worth opposing them. Louk Sorensen is also a heavy underdog for his match with Roberto Bautista-Agut but his service stats are a little better, although his projected hold is also low and this trade can also apply here too.

In WTA action, the best match likely to have multiple breaks of serve looks like being in Bad Gastein where home favourite Yvonne Meusburger takes on Chanelle Scheepers. With both players breaking exactly 50.0% on clay in the last 12 months at WTA level, and being poor servers, I'd expect both players to struggle to hold serve more than they get broken. Scheepers is also worth opposing a break up here - she loses a break lead 54.7% in the last 12 months with Meusburger recovering a deficit 50.0%.

I'd also expect breaks in the Paula Ormaechea vs Sara Errani match and with Ormeachea awful when a break up (she loses a break lead 62.0% of the time) I like backing Errani at a bigger price than the pre-match 1.17 if she falls a break behind in this.

In Bucharest I also feel that the match between Petra Cetkovska and Kiki Bertens will be swingy and projected holds are low for this too. However both ladies are poor at recovering break deficits so I'd be much more inclined to oppose the server in this when the set is on serve as opposed to when a player is a break up.

Finally, I thought I'd include some percentages from my new product, the Ultimate Pre-Match Betting Spreadsheet which has an incredible level of statistical information for the pre-match bettor, as well as also being useful for traders.

The following percentages for winning at least a set apply for today's favourites when favourite (stats from 6/13 to 6/14).

On the basis of these stats, Verdasco, Fognini, Bautista-Agut, Giorgi, Suarez-Navarro and Halep would look to be worth backing if they lose the first set today...

ATP Matches - average 71.5%

ATP Bastad:-

Carreno-Busta 63.6%
Verdasco 85.0%
Ferrer 73.7%
Berlocq 75.0%

ATP Stuttgart:-

Mayer 77.8%
Kohlschreiber 76.9%
Delbonis 68.2%
Garcia-Lopez 77.1%
Fognini 83.1%
Bautista-Agut 80.0%
Giraldo 77.1%
Lopez 62.8%

ATP Newport:-

Mahut 71.1%
Karlovic 63.8%

WTA Matches - Average 70.0%

WTA Bad Gastein:-

Giorgi 80.0%
Suarez Navarro 82.6%
Errani 74.1%
Meusburger 61.5%

WTA Bucharest:-

Bertens 70.3%
Halep 89.2%
Vinci 69.2%


As always, good luck in the markets and stay green!