Using data.

[BurtyBassett]

Hi,

I have been a guest reader of this forum for around two years whilst learning to trade or not to as it seems sometimes.

After using another software package that does not allow for data collection I am considering switching to betangel but have a limited knowledge of either how to use stats or spreadsheets.

I would like to know of any books people can recommend concerning how to use collected data to fine ways into a market.

I imagine you are able to say test weather laying at a certain price in a maiden after a steam and consolidation period of x amount matched can produce a +ev trade.

many thanks

Burty

[BurtyBassett]

Well thanks for the advice folks

[Tonto]

Well thanks for the advice folks

Burty

My apologies. I've only just seen your post.

I don't use Bet Angel because I don't need to. In fact, I've never used it. If I needed to use betting software, then I would use Bet Angel in preference to other betting software because I'm reliably informed that Bet Angel is as good as it gets. Because I don't use Bet Angel, nor have I ever used it, I can't tell you naff all about it's ability to collect data or, indeed, whether it has any such ability at all.

I don't know of any books about data collection and analysis.

So far, I have to admit, I haven't been of much use.

What I can tell you is that data collection and analysis is a vast subject in its own right and has many facets. It's possible to literally fill a medium sized book with the topic. I jest not. This is possibly why you didn't receive any replies to your initial post.

[Euler]

Hi Burty,

The forum has been pre-occupied with the new API recently so it looks like your post was missed.

There are two dedicated areas of the forum for spreadsheets are a lot about data collection in there: -

viewforum.php?f=19

viewforum.php?f=31

[LinusP]

Betangel is great but it is not setup for data collection, you can use vb in excel to record every second but as soon as you start adding more than one market things get tricky. Fracsoft offer data to be purchased.

But collecting data is the easy bit as you then need somewhere to store it. Then you can move on to the dangerous black art of back testing

[Tonto]

Linus is correct. The issues with back testing include:

a) Specifically, how do you decide which data items, or combination thereof, should be back tested? For example, should you include or exclude the jockey? Should you include or exclude the trainer? Should you include or exclude the race distance? Should you include or exclude the weight carried by the horse? Should you include or exclude the horse's age? etc. etc.

b) Should you store the data in a spreadsheet or in a database?

c) How much data should you back test? 6 months, 12 months, 5 years, 1,000 races, 10,000 races?

d) How are you going to determine whether any system(s) that you create using the data is good enough to use live?

e) How are you going to decide which staking plan to use when testing?

f) Are you going to consider laying, backing or trading or a combination thereof?

g) What filters are you going to use and how do you intend to find them?

I could go on.

[to75ne]

Linus is correct. The issues with back testing include:

a) Specifically, how do you decide which data items, or combination there and so on

g) What filters are you going to use and how do you intend to find them?

I could go on.

all good and valid, and im sure would probably throw up something worth knowing, or even a system or 2 that will last long enough to make a reasonable profit for the amount the of effort (time used, computer power etc) that you will have to put in.

or you could just trade

[Tonto]

Linus is correct. The issues with back testing include:

a) Specifically, how do you decide which data items, or combination there and so on

g) What filters are you going to use and how do you intend to find them?

I could go on.

all good and valid, and im sure would probably throw up something worth knowing, or even a system or 2 that will last long enough to make a reasonable profit for the amount the of effort (time used, computer power etc) that you will have to put in.

or you could just trade

I love your unabandoned use of the term 'JUST' as in 'JUST TRADE'

[Euler]

We have put many features into Bet Angel to allow you to collect data but Betfair wont let us release them. Instead asking you to buy historical data. We used to have a product called odds extractor which would gather data, but they asked us to withdraw that.

Every time I meet them I ask them to change their mind. Been doing that for many years now. I think it's an error on their behalf to not allow people to gather data.

Probably the primary reason for this policy is that they charge third parties for data, quite a lot of money. So to let us mere mortals have it for free would undermine that. But of course people access the API and do it anyhow, which makes that a bit of a mockery. In the office we have years worth of data on a wide variety of markets, but are not able to give it to our users.

So for the moment, using the spreadsheet is the best way.

[LinusP]

Why not give it away Peter?

[BurtyBassett]

Hi folks,

Many thanks for your reply's been most useful but have also gotten me more confused. Is collecting data different from using the spreadsheets available elsewhere in the forum. I am mainly looking for a way to better understand and back up why an edge works with stats. I believe this would increase my confidence in trading these positions in a market, do others have stats that back up an advantageous market positions or just trade what they see with intuition?

I would love to know x will happen around a certain % of the time can, bet angel spreadsheets help me achieve this type of research.

Hope this mini ramble is clear, thanks and I look forward to hearing from you in advance

BurtyBassett

[Tonto]

Hi folks,

Many thanks for your reply's been most useful but have also gotten me more confused. Is collecting data different from using the spreadsheets available elsewhere in the forum. I am mainly looking for a way to better understand and back up why an edge works with stats. I believe this would increase my confidence in trading these positions in a market, do others have stats that back up an advantageous market positions or just trade what they see with intuition?

I would love to know x will happen around a certain % of the time can, bet angel spreadsheets help me achieve this type of research.

Hope this mini ramble is clear, thanks and I look forward to hearing from you in advance

BurtyBassett

BurtyBassett[/quote]

Burty

Based on people's comments, unless I've completely misunderstood, it looks like BetAngel can be used to collect data but BetunFair won't let BetAngel be used in that manner. So, the answer is no, you can't use BetAngel to collect data.

There are ways of collecting data other than through BetAngel. Basically, In your position, I would identify which data you needed to extract from BetUnFair and then post it on here and ask people for suggestions as to how the data may be best extracted.

do others have stats that back up an advantageous market positions or just trade what they see with intuition?

Good question. The people that I know of do naff all testing. Most of them remember, or think they remember, some oddity which happened in one race a week last Thursday and, on that basis, go live. They all lose money. I contacted Steve Tilley, creator of the Archie Score. He's of the opinion that far too little testing is done and people have been known to go live on fewer than 100 tested selections. I have data going all the way back to 1 January 2008 for all of my systems.

I'm sure that I, or any one of the many people on this forum, can help you analyse the data once it has been extracted. For example, I can help you calculate how likely it is that your results came about by pure chance ie. how likely your system is to be random and the Longest Losing Run that you are likely to encounter. From there, I can help you to create a suitable staking plan.

[Euler]

Why not give it away Peter?

We tried that too, but got pulled up on it quickly.

[Euler]

Based on people's comments, unless I've completely misunderstood, it looks like BetAngel can be used to collect data but BetunFair won't let BetAngel be used in that manner. So, the answer is no, you can't use BetAngel to collect data.

No thats wrong. YOu are free to collect data using Bet Angel for personal use and on the forum here you can see tons of speadsheets that people are sharing to do that.

But you can't redistributed that data for commercial use. I.e. sell it or sell something with the data.

[Tonto]

Euler

You wrote:

No thats wrong. YOu are free to collect data using Bet Angel for personal use and on the forum here you can see tons of speadsheets that people are sharing to do that.

But you can't redistributed that data for commercial use. I.e. sell it or sell something with the data.

You also wrote:

We have put many features into Bet Angel to allow you to collect data but Betfair wont let us release them.

I'm puzzled because these two statements seem to contradict one another.