https://www.casino.org/news/nevada-fede ... t-markets/
Basically Nevada rules Kalshi has unlicensed gambling products
No shit Sherlock.
Kalshi and Polymarket
Pretty much everyone using it lives in a restricted country.
I guess that’s where Kalshi has the upper hand
I guess the casinos have influenced this decision?megarain wrote: ↑Wed Nov 26, 2025 5:06 pmhttps://www.casino.org/news/nevada-fede ... t-markets/
Basically Nevada rules Kalshi has unlicensed gambling products
No shit Sherlock.
But yeah no way ‘prediction markets’ should be legal anywhere where sports betting isn’t allowed.
https://www.vegasslotsonline.com/news/2 ... n-lawsuit/
Class action against Kalshi (Trump jnr on the board)
Class action against Kalshi (Trump jnr on the board)
Completely makes sense doesn’t it, I obviously don’t have a problem with sports betting/gambling but to call it trading instead of betting is stretching it a bit isn’t it.
And there’s a reason they got Trump Jr on the board and it’s not his brains.
And there’s a reason they got Trump Jr on the board and it’s not his brains.
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firlandsfarm
- Posts: 3511
- Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am
To trade or to bet, that is the question!
In my mind they are 99% interchangeable. Why is it share dealers trade but 'punters' bet? For those who draw a distinction do bookies trade or bet? When a grocer acquires a box of oranges are they 'betting' they can 'trade' them for a profit?!
https://tradersunion.com/news/editors-p ... to-gemini/
- How prediction markets are going mainstream
- How prediction markets are going mainstream
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firlandsfarm
- Posts: 3511
- Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am
I know little about these markets but it seems to me they are a natural expansion of traditional markets. There's nothing new about betting on outcomes ... how many bet on the result of a football match, that's an outcome. It's just that the Exchanges showed that Joe Punters, collectively, can form a market and the wisdom of the crowd will create a price assisted by the information (true or false) that's on the Internet.
For those with an interest in betting history go back to the Life Insurance Act 1774 and latterly the Marine Insurance Act 1906. Basically these acts required an insured to have the prospect of a real loss if an event happened (Insurable Interest). The 1774 act came about because people were betting on someone surviving a battle/war by insuring their life for profit. This highlighted the possibility of insuring someone's life and then murdering them! Hence the requirement of an Insurable Interest. Over the years this principle has organically been extended to all insurances with the onus being placed on the insurers to establish Insurable Interest at the commencement of the policy.
So what's this got to do with Kalshi and Polymarket? Well, will someone start an Exchange creating bets on someone surviving an event or even simpler a period of time? Such has been used before financially. Many years ago there was the General Franco scheme, a specific UK tax avoidance arrangement that used a dying person (like General Franco, who was terminally ill at the time the scheme was designed) to exploit a loophole in capital transfer tax law. It is not related to the personal finances or tax policies of the Spanish dictator. The arrangement required someone who would die in the very short term and Franco was chosen by many who took advantage of the arrangement because there could be little doubt over when he died. Instead of wagering "will XYZ still be in power by [Date]" could it become "will XYZ still be alive by [Date]"? How about pricing "Will there be an assassination attempt on Donald Trump before the end of his Presidency?"!
... just some food for thought as to where such markets will go.
For those with an interest in betting history go back to the Life Insurance Act 1774 and latterly the Marine Insurance Act 1906. Basically these acts required an insured to have the prospect of a real loss if an event happened (Insurable Interest). The 1774 act came about because people were betting on someone surviving a battle/war by insuring their life for profit. This highlighted the possibility of insuring someone's life and then murdering them! Hence the requirement of an Insurable Interest. Over the years this principle has organically been extended to all insurances with the onus being placed on the insurers to establish Insurable Interest at the commencement of the policy.
So what's this got to do with Kalshi and Polymarket? Well, will someone start an Exchange creating bets on someone surviving an event or even simpler a period of time? Such has been used before financially. Many years ago there was the General Franco scheme, a specific UK tax avoidance arrangement that used a dying person (like General Franco, who was terminally ill at the time the scheme was designed) to exploit a loophole in capital transfer tax law. It is not related to the personal finances or tax policies of the Spanish dictator. The arrangement required someone who would die in the very short term and Franco was chosen by many who took advantage of the arrangement because there could be little doubt over when he died. Instead of wagering "will XYZ still be in power by [Date]" could it become "will XYZ still be alive by [Date]"? How about pricing "Will there be an assassination attempt on Donald Trump before the end of his Presidency?"!
... just some food for thought as to where such markets will go.
Peter, you seem to know everyone who pulls the levers, so can I ask a small favor.
If you’ve got an hour to spare before Christmas, can you talk Polymarket into buying Betfair and running the opposite strategy: more countries in, fewer countries out.
Bonus points if they stop nuking accounts just because someone moved house.
Extra bonus points if “your documents are under review” doesn’t mean you disappear for weeks.
If you’ve got an hour to spare before Christmas, can you talk Polymarket into buying Betfair and running the opposite strategy: more countries in, fewer countries out.
Bonus points if they stop nuking accounts just because someone moved house.
Extra bonus points if “your documents are under review” doesn’t mean you disappear for weeks.
Insider with newly funded $30k account won $400k in less than 24 hrs from Maduro’s exit.
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Agree, not only insider trading but surely a national security issue. Imagine the Iranians will now be scouring Polymarket for any whale bets on whether the regime will collapse 
I feel like if you’re on Polymarket you’d better expect insider trading, and let’s be honest, if we had some knowledge then I’m sure we’d be doing the same.
I feel like if you’re on Polymarket you’d better expect insider trading, and let’s be honest, if we had some knowledge then I’m sure we’d be doing the same.
I thought this was an interesting proxy - https://x.com/PenPizzaReport
Even if Polymarket and Kalshi never become the final thing, I still think they matter.
They’re teaching a lot of people how market style betting works. Prices move, you can trade in and out, you can hedge, and you start thinking in probabilities. That learning curve is the hard part, and they’re doing it at scale.
If someone builds the next step properly, that’s when it gets interesting. A real exchange style platform, done right, could take this to a totally new level, because you’d already have loads of people who understand the mechanics.
And even if sports is not the biggest category on the platform, it can still be a big win as long as the sports markets themselves are genuinely liquid.
What’s missing is liquidity plus legitimacy. Deep markets, tight spreads, and the ability to operate broadly without constantly running into country by country roadblocks.
And in the US there’s the obvious blocker: it’s not one market, it’s 50. State by state makes national scale hard unless someone solves distribution and licensing properly.
Curious what others think. Dead end, or early signs of something bigger?
They’re teaching a lot of people how market style betting works. Prices move, you can trade in and out, you can hedge, and you start thinking in probabilities. That learning curve is the hard part, and they’re doing it at scale.
If someone builds the next step properly, that’s when it gets interesting. A real exchange style platform, done right, could take this to a totally new level, because you’d already have loads of people who understand the mechanics.
And even if sports is not the biggest category on the platform, it can still be a big win as long as the sports markets themselves are genuinely liquid.
What’s missing is liquidity plus legitimacy. Deep markets, tight spreads, and the ability to operate broadly without constantly running into country by country roadblocks.
And in the US there’s the obvious blocker: it’s not one market, it’s 50. State by state makes national scale hard unless someone solves distribution and licensing properly.
Curious what others think. Dead end, or early signs of something bigger?
The insider trading is curious.
You have a willing buyer and willing seller at a “fair” market price - I don’t especially have an issue with it.
If the prediction markets evolve to void bets which are a magnitude bigger than normal due to someone having a
faster feed, then trust will start to be gained.
If people want to bet against relatively obscure events then
I suspect they might have a hedge etc on maybe financial markets. People speculating decent sums are normally not idiots.
The treatment of advertising and loss limits are going to be tough.
But fail to see how some form of USA betting product doesn’t
become the global market leader, eventually.
Thou China has potentially 4x the local market size - say 100k users betting on the 3.30 at Wolvo might be a sight to behold
You have a willing buyer and willing seller at a “fair” market price - I don’t especially have an issue with it.
If the prediction markets evolve to void bets which are a magnitude bigger than normal due to someone having a
faster feed, then trust will start to be gained.
If people want to bet against relatively obscure events then
I suspect they might have a hedge etc on maybe financial markets. People speculating decent sums are normally not idiots.
The treatment of advertising and loss limits are going to be tough.
But fail to see how some form of USA betting product doesn’t
become the global market leader, eventually.
Thou China has potentially 4x the local market size - say 100k users betting on the 3.30 at Wolvo might be a sight to behold