https://www.casino.org/news/nevada-fede ... t-markets/
Basically Nevada rules Kalshi has unlicensed gambling products
No shit Sherlock.
Kalshi and Polymarket
Pretty much everyone using it lives in a restricted country.
I guess that’s where Kalshi has the upper hand
I guess the casinos have influenced this decision?megarain wrote: ↑Wed Nov 26, 2025 5:06 pmhttps://www.casino.org/news/nevada-fede ... t-markets/
Basically Nevada rules Kalshi has unlicensed gambling products
No shit Sherlock.
But yeah no way ‘prediction markets’ should be legal anywhere where sports betting isn’t allowed.
https://www.vegasslotsonline.com/news/2 ... n-lawsuit/
Class action against Kalshi (Trump jnr on the board)
Class action against Kalshi (Trump jnr on the board)
Completely makes sense doesn’t it, I obviously don’t have a problem with sports betting/gambling but to call it trading instead of betting is stretching it a bit isn’t it.
And there’s a reason they got Trump Jr on the board and it’s not his brains.
And there’s a reason they got Trump Jr on the board and it’s not his brains.
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firlandsfarm
- Posts: 3495
- Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am
To trade or to bet, that is the question!
In my mind they are 99% interchangeable. Why is it share dealers trade but 'punters' bet? For those who draw a distinction do bookies trade or bet? When a grocer acquires a box of oranges are they 'betting' they can 'trade' them for a profit?!
https://tradersunion.com/news/editors-p ... to-gemini/
- How prediction markets are going mainstream
- How prediction markets are going mainstream
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firlandsfarm
- Posts: 3495
- Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am
I know little about these markets but it seems to me they are a natural expansion of traditional markets. There's nothing new about betting on outcomes ... how many bet on the result of a football match, that's an outcome. It's just that the Exchanges showed that Joe Punters, collectively, can form a market and the wisdom of the crowd will create a price assisted by the information (true or false) that's on the Internet.
For those with an interest in betting history go back to the Life Insurance Act 1774 and latterly the Marine Insurance Act 1906. Basically these acts required an insured to have the prospect of a real loss if an event happened (Insurable Interest). The 1774 act came about because people were betting on someone surviving a battle/war by insuring their life for profit. This highlighted the possibility of insuring someone's life and then murdering them! Hence the requirement of an Insurable Interest. Over the years this principle has organically been extended to all insurances with the onus being placed on the insurers to establish Insurable Interest at the commencement of the policy.
So what's this got to do with Kalshi and Polymarket? Well, will someone start an Exchange creating bets on someone surviving an event or even simpler a period of time? Such has been used before financially. Many years ago there was the General Franco scheme, a specific UK tax avoidance arrangement that used a dying person (like General Franco, who was terminally ill at the time the scheme was designed) to exploit a loophole in capital transfer tax law. It is not related to the personal finances or tax policies of the Spanish dictator. The arrangement required someone who would die in the very short term and Franco was chosen by many who took advantage of the arrangement because there could be little doubt over when he died. Instead of wagering "will XYZ still be in power by [Date]" could it become "will XYZ still be alive by [Date]"? How about pricing "Will there be an assassination attempt on Donald Trump before the end of his Presidency?"!
... just some food for thought as to where such markets will go.
For those with an interest in betting history go back to the Life Insurance Act 1774 and latterly the Marine Insurance Act 1906. Basically these acts required an insured to have the prospect of a real loss if an event happened (Insurable Interest). The 1774 act came about because people were betting on someone surviving a battle/war by insuring their life for profit. This highlighted the possibility of insuring someone's life and then murdering them! Hence the requirement of an Insurable Interest. Over the years this principle has organically been extended to all insurances with the onus being placed on the insurers to establish Insurable Interest at the commencement of the policy.
So what's this got to do with Kalshi and Polymarket? Well, will someone start an Exchange creating bets on someone surviving an event or even simpler a period of time? Such has been used before financially. Many years ago there was the General Franco scheme, a specific UK tax avoidance arrangement that used a dying person (like General Franco, who was terminally ill at the time the scheme was designed) to exploit a loophole in capital transfer tax law. It is not related to the personal finances or tax policies of the Spanish dictator. The arrangement required someone who would die in the very short term and Franco was chosen by many who took advantage of the arrangement because there could be little doubt over when he died. Instead of wagering "will XYZ still be in power by [Date]" could it become "will XYZ still be alive by [Date]"? How about pricing "Will there be an assassination attempt on Donald Trump before the end of his Presidency?"!
... just some food for thought as to where such markets will go.