US Presidential Election 2020

Punting on politics
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Naffman
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ChrisF wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:19 am
The Market should have been who wins the election vote or who becomes president elect not who becomes the next president, no matter, better luck next time. I don't see it as gambling my money anyway, It came out of my pot, I would never have gone into my wallet I bet on it. I will stick to horse racing where at least the market is titled correctly.
If Biden wins I'm guessing they'll have a separate market if he'll be inaugurated in Jan
Trader Pat
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:27 am
This is a pretty good electoral map. It allows you to colour your own states and do your what-ifs.

https://www.270towin.com/
When you look at that map it really drives home how messed up the American voting system is.

'One person, one vote' is a fallacy in that country. If you're a California Republican or a Texas Democrat you're vote is essentially useless.

Only in America could one candidate get more votes than the other and still lose an election, so much for 'Will of the People'.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

Naffman wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:09 am
ChrisF wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:19 am
The Market should have been who wins the election vote or who becomes president elect not who becomes the next president, no matter, better luck next time. I don't see it as gambling my money anyway, It came out of my pot, I would never have gone into my wallet I bet on it. I will stick to horse racing where at least the market is titled correctly.
If Biden wins I'm guessing they'll have a separate market if he'll be inaugurated in Jan
...but all bets will be voided if he dies. ;)

If Biden becomes president, Harry Dunn's parents will step up calls for justice. And I bet Prince Andrew's rooting for another Trump term.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

Trader Pat wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:16 am
Derek27 wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:27 am
This is a pretty good electoral map. It allows you to colour your own states and do your what-ifs.

https://www.270towin.com/
When you look at that map it really drives home how messed up the American voting system is.

'One person, one vote' is a fallacy in that country. If you're a California Republican or a Texas Democrat you're vote is essentially useless.

Only in America could one candidate get more votes than the other and still lose an election, so much for 'Will of the People'.
The US electoral system is far more complex than I realised. Didn't know anything about the second electoral college vote, split states and all the other complexities until now.
Trader Pat
Posts: 1179
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:33 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:16 am
Derek27 wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:27 am
This is a pretty good electoral map. It allows you to colour your own states and do your what-ifs.

https://www.270towin.com/
When you look at that map it really drives home how messed up the American voting system is.

'One person, one vote' is a fallacy in that country. If you're a California Republican or a Texas Democrat you're vote is essentially useless.

Only in America could one candidate get more votes than the other and still lose an election, so much for 'Will of the People'.
The US electoral system is far more complex than I realised. Didn't know anything about the second electoral college vote, split states and all the other complexities until now.
That's the problem its too complex.

I think splitting the Electoral College votes would be a much fairer way of doing it, rather than giving 100% of the votes to whatever candidate wins. At least people on both sides would know that your vote really does count towards something.

There's also a movement to abolish the Electoral College but only 15 states have signed up to it, think it needs a simple majority but won't happen anytime soon.
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Naffman
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Seems the lefty Nate Silver from 538 has stopped publishing all Trafalgar polls so the averages in the battleground states are almost meaningless now
Zenyatta
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Remember me, the one true Scotsman! ? :D Just passing through, noticed the crazy Betfair prices on this market. Biden has consistency led in the polls all year, and maintains a lead in the popular vote of perhaps 8%. Even with the electoral college, Trump surely has a very low chance of winning at this point, only 11% according to Nate Silver, which sounds about right to me. But prices on Betfair give implied odds of 35% for Trump!

I think there's a lot of deluded Trump gamblers distorting the market, and you could make a decent sum by betting big on Biden.
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Naffman
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Zenyatta wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:18 am
Biden has consistency led in the polls all year
That's the thing though isn't it, 538 gave Biden a 3.8pt lead on Feb 26th which was pre-covid, does anyone actually believe Biden would've won earlier in the year?
Trader Pat
Posts: 1179
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Zenyatta wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:18 am
Remember me, the one true Scotsman! ? :D Just passing through, noticed the crazy Betfair prices on this market. Biden has consistency led in the polls all year, and maintains a lead in the popular vote of perhaps 8%. Even with the electoral college, Trump surely has a very low chance of winning at this point, only 11% according to Nate Silver, which sounds about right to me. But prices on Betfair give implied odds of 35% for Trump!

I think there's a lot of deluded Trump gamblers distorting the market, and you could make a decent sum by betting big on Biden.
I think the ghost of 2016 is haunting everyone, nobody wants to look dumb again by predicting a blow out for Biden. If the pollsters hadn't got it so wrong 4 years ago then Biden would be trading much lower.

Also the polls seem to be tightening so that will probably continue right up to election day and might bring Trump's price in.
Trader Pat
Posts: 1179
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Naffman wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:27 am
Zenyatta wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:18 am
Biden has consistency led in the polls all year
That's the thing though isn't it, 538 gave Biden a 3.8pt lead on Feb 26th which was pre-covid, does anyone actually believe Biden would've won earlier in the year?
I think if Covid had never happened it obviously would have been much tougher for Biden but I still think it would have been close.

As it stands right now I'm weighted towards a blow out for Biden in the Electoral College markets.
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