US Presidential Election 2020
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Archery1969
- Posts: 4478
- Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Derek, what I posted 3 back was on the BBC website, it's a slim chance but given the meetings he had today at the whitehouse it's not 100% shore dunk it couldnt happen. He only needs to flip a few state electors into going against their own state wishes/votes. While they normally do, there is nothing in law to say they have to vote for the candidate that got the most popular votes.Derek27 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 21, 2020 1:14 amIf you've got a bet on Trump you really need to find a wider audience to spread uncertainty.Archery1969 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 21, 2020 1:04 amTrump could actually pull this off if Republican state electors vote for him instead of Biden. It would ofcourse piss off allot of voters and throw the constitution into termoil but I dont think he is worried about that.
Betfair need to setup a new market...
There's no serious chance of that. Even Republican politicians are getting sick of him and are finding it increasingly difficult to support his allegations, coupled with the fear of a backlash and riots on the streets all over America - it won't happen!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-55020428
This point is key:
"When Americans vote in a presidential election, they are actually voting in a state contest, not a national one. They are voting for state electors who will then cast one vote each for president. These electors usually follow the will of the electorate - in Michigan, for instance, they should all vote for Joe Biden because he won the state." But there is nothing in law to say they are compelled todo so.
There is state law, in some states, that require the popular vote to be upheld in the EC. Don't know how many or which ones but it does close the net on Trump.Archery1969 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 21, 2020 1:22 amBut there is nothing in law to say they are compelled todo so.
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Archery1969
- Posts: 4478
- Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Derek, i am not against what your saying or want to happen. I am no Trump fan either. What you state above is correct for 24 US states but it has not been agreed in law for the remaining 26 states at all legislative chambers. US politics is complicated. Most presidents do the right thing and conceed. But when a president decides not too then it becomes a total nightmare and he/she can go down many routes which we in the UK would find totally stupid. This could drag on until 19/01/2021 or even further if the 'T' has his way.Derek27 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 21, 2020 1:29 amThere is state law, in some states, that require the popular vote to be upheld in the EC. Don't know how many or which ones but it does close the net on Trump.Archery1969 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 21, 2020 1:22 amBut there is nothing in law to say they are compelled todo so.
Biggest ever bet on an exchange possibly ever in a legal jurisdiction just went through Betfair. Single bet of £10 million pounds on Biden at 1.05. Free half a million pounds. Nice
From IPLTrevor on Twitter
From IPLTrevor on Twitter
LOL Lets hope it doesn't turn out to be by a supreme court judge.
Plenty of loopholes in the law and trump is known to exploit them , especially the ones on taxation. He says ...‘ I do it Cos iam smart’ ... this Mind gamesArchery1969 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 21, 2020 1:22 amDerek, what I posted 3 back was on the BBC website, it's a slim chance but given the meetings he had today at the whitehouse it's not 100% shore dunk it couldnt happen. He only needs to flip a few state electors into going against their own state wishes/votes. While they normally do, there is nothing in law to say they have to vote for the candidate that got the most popular votes.Derek27 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 21, 2020 1:14 amIf you've got a bet on Trump you really need to find a wider audience to spread uncertainty.Archery1969 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 21, 2020 1:04 amTrump could actually pull this off if Republican state electors vote for him instead of Biden. It would ofcourse piss off allot of voters and throw the constitution into termoil but I dont think he is worried about that.
Betfair need to setup a new market...
There's no serious chance of that. Even Republican politicians are getting sick of him and are finding it increasingly difficult to support his allegations, coupled with the fear of a backlash and riots on the streets all over America - it won't happen!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-55020428
This point is key:
"When Americans vote in a presidential election, they are actually voting in a state contest, not a national one. They are voting for state electors who will then cast one vote each for president. These electors usually follow the will of the electorate - in Michigan, for instance, they should all vote for Joe Biden because he won the state." But there is nothing in law to say they are compelled todo so.
works well in the business environment, where a gentleman’s Agreement is as good as the unwritten law of self policing . The law is deliberately designed that way ,allowing less red tape. On the other hand they work less well on the political arena, reason being you need legitimacy to achieve compliance. No need for political leaders if the electorate are not willing to be lead.
Trump got loads of political capital but ,less political good will, he lost the popular vote by a margin of 5 mil. + and counting . This will definitely work against him , especially if he takes the route of arm twisting the state electors to do his bidding.
The US cannot afford political instability during an economic downturn and a COVID menace. This will definitely transform any civilisation into a zombie apocalypse mode! Dog eat Dog Kind of scenerio.
Donald must well know what happened to the last president who had the slogan ‘. Make America Great Again’ MAGA...Ronald Reagan. He almost lost his life through a failed assassination Attempt.
Hopefully Donie will listen to the adults in the room. There are plenty republicans close to him that are enemies to the democrats but don’t like him either ,this would provide them a chance to kill two birds with one stone , just to offer themselves as the redeemers and benevolent Saviours.
At the moment he is on a self destructive mode, the campaign is experiencing death through ‘a thousand cuts’ . Rudy is bussy killing the faith in election and legitimacy of the democratic will of the people. Soon he will turn to the judiciary and if the Supreme Court fails to rule in his favour, he will run to the 72 mil voters and cry foul !! And call for the removal of all instruments of justice, they are All rigged !!!
A recipe for chaos indeed!!
Let's hope for his sake that Betfair settles the market before the end of next year!
I remember having a bash at Betfair for not closing the abandoned Long Walk Hurdle antepost market when it was announced it would not be rerun at Ascot, potentially holding my funds until next year. The guy took me seriously and advised that next year will be a different race with different runners.
Peter got in and put his bank on
The Betfair market is still open, with Trump now at 25-1 and drifting. Once the odds of something have fallen that low, you can generally forget about it.
Trump has known for a while that he has no chance, he just wants to crap on Biden's parade, so to speak.
I wouldn't be surprised to see him dragging out the drama for another couple of weeks, but he'll concede once all the certifications are done (before Dec 8th).
FWIW I agree.
The popular vote winner has also moved into 1.02/1.03
The popular vote winner has also moved into 1.02/1.03
What does "generally" mean, 95% of the time?
I can't imagine Trump ever conceding. He might walk out of the White House of his own free will and accept he's no longer the president, but that's not the same as conceding. He'll continue to insist to his dying day that the election was rigged and he was the rightful winner.
I agree with your assessment Derek. Just as he never accepted he lost popular vote to Hilary in 2016.Derek27 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:59 amI can't imagine Trump ever conceding. He might walk out of the White House of his own free will and accept he's no longer the president, but that's not the same as conceding. He'll continue to insist to his dying day that the election was rigged and he was the rightful winner.
On other hand some people (eg NYT, the guardian, some dems etc) never accepted the outcome of 2016 election was legitimate blaming Russian interference among others. A bit like remoaners not accepting Brexit.
Trump is doing something similar. Trumps actions strike at the legitimacy of the democratic outcome but so did the complaints from the losers in 2016. It’s all goose and gander.