Trading What I see !?

The sport of kings.
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Bubace
Posts: 49
Joined: Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:50 pm

jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:21 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:17 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:14 pm


It doesn't matter what you would do, you're saying that the support and resistance levels are not holding up... what I'm saying is, that cant have any impact if you don't have money waiting in the market on an anticipated fairy tale in your head. Instead wait for it to prove what you're anticipating and then take part. Laying at 6 could of worked, I don't remeber but if you have money in the market on a shit thinly traded race then there is every chance it could go straight past the bottom of the range, if you haven't got money waiting at those levels and it goes through then oh well, so be it, move on to the next fairy tale.
Ah got you ! Basically don't put an order down there, wait for it to get there then evaluate
Yes, you can anticipate something but to take part in that anticipation wait for it to play out before your eyes, if what you're thinking will happen actually is happening then get involved.
This is what i try and do, if this and that happen ill get involved, only for it to start, me to get involved and it reverses straight away for 20 ticks :D
jamesg46
Posts: 1627
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Bubace wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:37 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:21 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:17 pm


Ah got you ! Basically don't put an order down there, wait for it to get there then evaluate
Yes, you can anticipate something but to take part in that anticipation wait for it to play out before your eyes, if what you're thinking will happen actually is happening then get involved.
This is what i try and do, if this and that happen ill get involved, only for it to start, me to get involved and it reverses straight away for 20 ticks :D
Such is life/trading, the markets will do what they damn please :D

My point to Goat is that if I'm anticipating a bounce off of 5.5 and I enter money at that price to lay and it comes, takes my money and goes straight through me then its likely I'll lose 3, 4 or more ticks before I've even registered whats happening, then if you're gonna sit and hope it comes back in your favour its likely you'll lose more. If I wait until it gets to 5.5 and it starts to bounce then I can enter, if it fails then I sure as hell know that 5.5 is my get out point, if my entry was 5.6 or 5.7 then I've already limited my losing trades just by not having money waiting.
goat68
Posts: 501
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

So lost first 5 markets, put my anticipate 'hat' on, then won the next 9!
Ended day massively up, +£3.20 :-)
Odd the way it goes
conners
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:35 pm

Hi guys.

This is my first post on the forum so please go easy on me :)

Really enjoying this thread although i have not got to the end of it yet. I am an inexperienced racing trader but quite a lot of experience in the financial world.

I fully appreciate that your success at this game is going to be very dependent on getting more winning trades than losing ones and protecting your downside when you get it wrong. That being so, it is interesting to read some posters talk about being prepared to lose 3-4 ticks in the hope of winning a higher number to the upside. I totally get that but would point out that P/L is not determined by ticks, it is determined by amounts of money. It will often be the case that the value of a tick to the downside is different to the that you will achieve to the upside (crossover point). Zooming out a bit further, you may lose three ticks on two different trades but lose significantly different amounts. If you lose three ticks below evens
you will lose 0.03 but lose three ticks above 10 and you will lose 1.5 points. I know that this is obvious stuff but you must not lose sight of it otherwise you could end up with a very high strike rate, but small or negative, P&L
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Wingnut
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:31 am

conners wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:57 pm
Hi guys.

This is my first post on the forum so please go easy on me :)

Really enjoying this thread although i have not got to the end of it yet. I am an inexperienced racing trader but quite a lot of experience in the financial world.

I fully appreciate that your success at this game is going to be very dependent on getting more winning trades than losing ones and protecting your downside when you get it wrong. That being so, it is interesting to read some posters talk about being prepared to lose 3-4 ticks in the hope of winning a higher number to the upside. I totally get that but would point out that P/L is not determined by ticks, it is determined by amounts of money. It will often be the case that the value of a tick to the downside is different to the that you will achieve to the upside (crossover point). Zooming out a bit further, you may lose three ticks on two different trades but lose significantly different amounts. If you lose three ticks below evens
you will lose 0.03 but lose three ticks above 10 and you will lose 1.5 points. I know that this is obvious stuff but you must not lose sight of it otherwise you could end up with a very high strike rate, but small or negative, P&L
Hi mate,

Thats part of the reason I use auto stake tick size. I do use flat stakes across the board sometimes like when I'm trading a competitive handicap. But Mdn's, Nov etc with a shortie I use auto stake. When I first started out it was alway tick size this and tick size that, and I could never work out why I had strike rates of between 70-80% but I was still losing money. then it clicked and so far so good.

But that is just the way it suits me and I accept that everyone trades differently and if we all did the same we wouldn't have a market. So each to their own.
conners
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:35 pm

Thanks for sharing, Wingnut
goat68
Posts: 501
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

Been having a rest from order flow trading, being trying back to lay, and trying to spot value, but not sure it's for me, discipline inplay is not my speciality...
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