Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

So the opposite of what my thread is called!!
Ie. Don't trade what you see! Trade what you anticipate...!

[NickH]

Trade by anticipating on what you see

[jamesg46]

Darn thought I had found a steamer Winc 15:42 sehayli, it was until I got on board at 4mins

Trade what you see, not what you think you're likely to see.

If you have spotted a steamer, it's likely that the majority of the move has already happend.

Funny, both of those seem to contradict one another but,

"When people are being greedy, be fearful & when people are being fearful, be greedy."

Your comment basically agrees with what I see in that by the time you see/determine support/resistance/trend it breaks/ends !
You have to magically anticipate it...it's no good saying it's bounced off here 4 times already so it will bounce again... The 5th time it goes straight through!

I am always anticipating something but that doesn't mean I have money waiting in the market based on my anticipation. If a price is ranging between 5.5 & 6 and you're anticipating it will bounce off of 5.5 if it gets backed down to that level again, you don't have to have a trade waiting to prove your hypothesis, if it does bounce then enter, 5.6 5.7 5.8 & 5.9 are all still available. It either does or it doesn't happen.

[goat68]

Trade what you see, not what you think you're likely to see.

If you have spotted a steamer, it's likely that the majority of the move has already happend.

Funny, both of those seem to contradict one another but,

"When people are being greedy, be fearful & when people are being fearful, be greedy."

Your comment basically agrees with what I see in that by the time you see/determine support/resistance/trend it breaks/ends !
You have to magically anticipate it...it's no good saying it's bounced off here 4 times already so it will bounce again... The 5th time it goes straight through!

I am always anticipating something but that doesn't mean I have money waiting in the market based on my anticipation. If a price is ranging between 5.5 & 6 and you're anticipating it will bounce off of 5.5 if it gets backed down to that level again, you don't have to have a trade waiting to prove your hypothesis, if it does bounce then enter, 5.6 5.7 5.8 & 5.9 are all still available. It either does or it doesn't happen.

Sorry you lost me there....?

[jamesg46]

Your comment basically agrees with what I see in that by the time you see/determine support/resistance/trend it breaks/ends !
You have to magically anticipate it...it's no good saying it's bounced off here 4 times already so it will bounce again... The 5th time it goes straight through!

I am always anticipating something but that doesn't mean I have money waiting in the market based on my anticipation. If a price is ranging between 5.5 & 6 and you're anticipating it will bounce off of 5.5 if it gets backed down to that level again, you don't have to have a trade waiting to prove your hypothesis, if it does bounce then enter, 5.6 5.7 5.8 & 5.9 are all still available. It either does or it doesn't happen.

Sorry you lost me there....?

Basically imo I feel it would be a disadvantage to have money waiting at the top or bottom of a traded range, unless it was a very thickly traded market. In the screen grab the recent traded volume is between 5.6 & 6.4 - I personally wouldn't have money waiting at 5.6 on the off chance that it got backed down to those levels in anticipation of a bounce, I would instead wait and see if it actually happened, which would leave me an opportunity at 5.8 5.9 6.0 & 6.2. Why would I need to expose myself on a maybe when I could better my chances with it actually is.

[goat68]

Done better on last two races by anticipating (informed guessing!)

[goat68]

I am always anticipating something but that doesn't mean I have money waiting in the market based on my anticipation. If a price is ranging between 5.5 & 6 and you're anticipating it will bounce off of 5.5 if it gets backed down to that level again, you don't have to have a trade waiting to prove your hypothesis, if it does bounce then enter, 5.6 5.7 5.8 & 5.9 are all still available. It either does or it doesn't happen.

Sorry you lost me there....?

Basically imo I feel it would be a disadvantage to have money waiting at the top or bottom of a traded range, unless it was a very thickly traded market. In the screen grab the recent traded volume is between 5.6 & 6.4 - I personally wouldn't have money waiting at 5.6 on the off chance that it got backed down to those levels in anticipation of a bounce, I would instead wait and see if it actually happened, which would leave me an opportunity at 5.8 5.9 6.0 & 6.2. Why would I need to expose myself on a maybe when I could better my chances with it actually is.

From your screen grab I would lay at 6, as lots traded there, little at 5.9

[jamesg46]

Sorry you lost me there....?

Basically imo I feel it would be a disadvantage to have money waiting at the top or bottom of a traded range, unless it was a very thickly traded market. In the screen grab the recent traded volume is between 5.6 & 6.4 - I personally wouldn't have money waiting at 5.6 on the off chance that it got backed down to those levels in anticipation of a bounce, I would instead wait and see if it actually happened, which would leave me an opportunity at 5.8 5.9 6.0 & 6.2. Why would I need to expose myself on a maybe when I could better my chances with it actually is.

From your screen grab I would lay at 6, as lots traded there, little at 5.9

It doesn't matter what you would do, you're saying that the support and resistance levels are not holding up... what I'm saying is, that cant have any impact if you don't have money waiting in the market on an anticipated fairy tale in your head. Instead wait for it to prove what you're anticipating and then take part. Laying at 6 could of worked, I don't remeber but if you have money in the market on a shit thinly traded race then there is every chance it could go straight past the bottom of the range, if you haven't got money waiting at those levels and it goes through then oh well, so be it, move on to the next fairy tale.

[goat68]

Basically imo I feel it would be a disadvantage to have money waiting at the top or bottom of a traded range, unless it was a very thickly traded market. In the screen grab the recent traded volume is between 5.6 & 6.4 - I personally wouldn't have money waiting at 5.6 on the off chance that it got backed down to those levels in anticipation of a bounce, I would instead wait and see if it actually happened, which would leave me an opportunity at 5.8 5.9 6.0 & 6.2. Why would I need to expose myself on a maybe when I could better my chances with it actually is.

From your screen grab I would lay at 6, as lots traded there, little at 5.9

It doesn't matter what you would do, you're saying that the support and resistance levels are not holding up... what I'm saying is, that cant have any impact if you don't have money waiting in the market on an anticipated fairy tale in your head. Instead wait for it to prove what you're anticipating and then take part. Laying at 6 could of worked, I don't remeber but if you have money in the market on a shit thinly traded race then there is every chance it could go straight past the bottom of the range, if you haven't got money waiting at those levels and it goes through then oh well, so be it, move on to the next fairy tale.

Ah got you ! Basically don't put an order down there, wait for it to get there then evaluate

[jamesg46]

From your screen grab I would lay at 6, as lots traded there, little at 5.9

It doesn't matter what you would do, you're saying that the support and resistance levels are not holding up... what I'm saying is, that cant have any impact if you don't have money waiting in the market on an anticipated fairy tale in your head. Instead wait for it to prove what you're anticipating and then take part. Laying at 6 could of worked, I don't remeber but if you have money in the market on a shit thinly traded race then there is every chance it could go straight past the bottom of the range, if you haven't got money waiting at those levels and it goes through then oh well, so be it, move on to the next fairy tale.

Ah got you ! Basically don't put an order down there, wait for it to get there then evaluate

Yes, you can anticipate something but to take part in that anticipation wait for it to play out before your eyes, if what you're thinking will happen actually is happening then get involved.

[Bubace]

It doesn't matter what you would do, you're saying that the support and resistance levels are not holding up... what I'm saying is, that cant have any impact if you don't have money waiting in the market on an anticipated fairy tale in your head. Instead wait for it to prove what you're anticipating and then take part. Laying at 6 could of worked, I don't remeber but if you have money in the market on a shit thinly traded race then there is every chance it could go straight past the bottom of the range, if you haven't got money waiting at those levels and it goes through then oh well, so be it, move on to the next fairy tale.

Ah got you ! Basically don't put an order down there, wait for it to get there then evaluate

Yes, you can anticipate something but to take part in that anticipation wait for it to play out before your eyes, if what you're thinking will happen actually is happening then get involved.

This is what i try and do, if this and that happen ill get involved, only for it to start, me to get involved and it reverses straight away for 20 ticks

[jamesg46]

Ah got you ! Basically don't put an order down there, wait for it to get there then evaluate

Yes, you can anticipate something but to take part in that anticipation wait for it to play out before your eyes, if what you're thinking will happen actually is happening then get involved.

This is what i try and do, if this and that happen ill get involved, only for it to start, me to get involved and it reverses straight away for 20 ticks

Such is life/trading, the markets will do what they damn please

My point to Goat is that if I'm anticipating a bounce off of 5.5 and I enter money at that price to lay and it comes, takes my money and goes straight through me then its likely I'll lose 3, 4 or more ticks before I've even registered whats happening, then if you're gonna sit and hope it comes back in your favour its likely you'll lose more. If I wait until it gets to 5.5 and it starts to bounce then I can enter, if it fails then I sure as hell know that 5.5 is my get out point, if my entry was 5.6 or 5.7 then I've already limited my losing trades just by not having money waiting.

[goat68]

So lost first 5 markets, put my anticipate 'hat' on, then won the next 9!
Ended day massively up, +£3.20
Odd the way it goes

[conners]

Hi guys.

This is my first post on the forum so please go easy on me

Really enjoying this thread although i have not got to the end of it yet. I am an inexperienced racing trader but quite a lot of experience in the financial world.

I fully appreciate that your success at this game is going to be very dependent on getting more winning trades than losing ones and protecting your downside when you get it wrong. That being so, it is interesting to read some posters talk about being prepared to lose 3-4 ticks in the hope of winning a higher number to the upside. I totally get that but would point out that P/L is not determined by ticks, it is determined by amounts of money. It will often be the case that the value of a tick to the downside is different to the that you will achieve to the upside (crossover point). Zooming out a bit further, you may lose three ticks on two different trades but lose significantly different amounts. If you lose three ticks below evens
you will lose 0.03 but lose three ticks above 10 and you will lose 1.5 points. I know that this is obvious stuff but you must not lose sight of it otherwise you could end up with a very high strike rate, but small or negative, P&L

[Wingnut]

Hi guys.

This is my first post on the forum so please go easy on me

Really enjoying this thread although i have not got to the end of it yet. I am an inexperienced racing trader but quite a lot of experience in the financial world.

I fully appreciate that your success at this game is going to be very dependent on getting more winning trades than losing ones and protecting your downside when you get it wrong. That being so, it is interesting to read some posters talk about being prepared to lose 3-4 ticks in the hope of winning a higher number to the upside. I totally get that but would point out that P/L is not determined by ticks, it is determined by amounts of money. It will often be the case that the value of a tick to the downside is different to the that you will achieve to the upside (crossover point). Zooming out a bit further, you may lose three ticks on two different trades but lose significantly different amounts. If you lose three ticks below evens
you will lose 0.03 but lose three ticks above 10 and you will lose 1.5 points. I know that this is obvious stuff but you must not lose sight of it otherwise you could end up with a very high strike rate, but small or negative, P&L

Hi mate,

Thats part of the reason I use auto stake tick size. I do use flat stakes across the board sometimes like when I'm trading a competitive handicap. But Mdn's, Nov etc with a shortie I use auto stake. When I first started out it was alway tick size this and tick size that, and I could never work out why I had strike rates of between 70-80% but I was still losing money. then it clicked and so far so good.

But that is just the way it suits me and I accept that everyone trades differently and if we all did the same we wouldn't have a market. So each to their own.