Trading What I see !?

The sport of kings.
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kamil2402
Posts: 28
Joined: Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:51 am

goat68 wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:04 pm
Markets seems a battle at the moment, just a gentle grind into -ve territory, I'm hoping it's the time of year, how is everyone else doing?
Did pretty well yesterday 70% strike rate, all manual pre race. Traded 13 markets in total. They reminded me very much of greyhound markets.
vhdgkl
Posts: 53
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 9:26 am

now

meydan 16.25

very large back bet availableon [email protected]
price go down @4

(last minute before the off!this detail is fundamental..because it guarantees that the guy does not want to manipulate anything but only wants to place his bet..if it waits the last minute,it's because it needs liquidity that isn t there....he cant find money to accept it..he will accept a much lower price)


this is an example of edge :D
goat68
Posts: 890
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

vhdgkl wrote:
Sat Jan 16, 2021 4:27 pm
now

meydan 16.25

very large back bet availableon [email protected]
price go down @4

(last minute before the off!this detail is fundamental..because it guarantees that the guy does not want to manipulate anything but only wants to place his bet..if it waits the last minute,it's because it needs liquidity that isn t there....he cant find money to accept it..he will accept a much lower price)


this is an example of edge :D
Hi, thanks for this. So you saw a load of money queued at 5.2 not being taken but the price was lower and because other traders also see that money waiting they all pushed the price down to 4? Seems a odd not sure i understand?
vhdgkl
Posts: 53
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 9:26 am

goat68 wrote:
Sat Jan 16, 2021 5:19 pm
vhdgkl wrote:
Sat Jan 16, 2021 4:27 pm
now

meydan 16.25

very large back bet availableon [email protected]
price go down @4

(last minute before the off!this detail is fundamental..because it guarantees that the guy does not want to manipulate anything but only wants to place his bet..if it waits the last minute,it's because it needs liquidity that isn t there....he cant find money to accept it..he will accept a much lower price)


this is an example of edge :D
Hi, thanks for this. So you saw a load of money queued at 5.2 not being taken but the price was lower and because other traders also see that money waiting they all pushed the price down to 4? Seems a odd not sure i understand?
jes..last minute before the off...
not in uk.
in south african horse racing..in usa horse racing..in australia harness..where there is a bit of money,but not too much to attract traders---and,in horse racing markets, as themoney comes in at the last, because of the characterisics of horse markets.
large bets last minute before the off?trade,trade that money
1 out of 10 times?...min,30pounds.
goat68
Posts: 890
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

vhdgkl wrote:
Sat Jan 16, 2021 6:32 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sat Jan 16, 2021 5:19 pm
vhdgkl wrote:
Sat Jan 16, 2021 4:27 pm
now

meydan 16.25

very large back bet availableon [email protected]
price go down @4

(last minute before the off!this detail is fundamental..because it guarantees that the guy does not want to manipulate anything but only wants to place his bet..if it waits the last minute,it's because it needs liquidity that isn t there....he cant find money to accept it..he will accept a much lower price)


this is an example of edge :D
Hi, thanks for this. So you saw a load of money queued at 5.2 not being taken but the price was lower and because other traders also see that money waiting they all pushed the price down to 4? Seems a odd not sure i understand?
jes..last minute before the off...
not in uk.
in south african horse racing..in usa horse racing..in australia harness..where there is a bit of money,but not too much to attract traders---and,in horse racing markets, as themoney comes in at the last, because of the characterisics of horse markets.
large bets last minute before the off?trade,trade that money
1 out of 10 times?...min,30pounds.
Its interesting you mention not too much money to attract traders, i think i see what you mean, the UK racing has too much volume and traders so the market just gets efficient with little movement and thus few opportunities...
goat68
Posts: 890
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Just watched Kemp 18:50 and there were some decent moves, but my bot picked none of them!! Interesting watch Elmjor, and it came in quite a bit, but I could see no "indicator" it would do that, so not surprising bot didn't either.
I am thinking maybe entering at random is better, as if you create a bot based on indicators they are lagging and as far as I can see no indicator. I'm guessing with so many 1000s of traders/bots, anything obvious is going to be -ev.
goat68
Posts: 890
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Bot traded 8 markets today with a 100% losses......
goat68
Posts: 890
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

My Bots PnL so far this month, an obvious trend! :
PnLChart.jpg
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goat68
Posts: 890
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Going to invert my current bot for the next week, see what happens
Trader Pat
Posts: 1766
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

goat68 wrote:
Sat Jan 16, 2021 10:59 pm
My Bots PnL so far this month, an obvious trend! :
PnLChart.jpg
Time alone isn't a good metric, you have to break it down into race types and see if there's a pattern.

Also sample size is very important, you'd probably need at least 1,000 to be able to make any kind of judgement
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