Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

Let's say there are a lot of areas where you can earn money...I agree. ...

Seems like you are good at spotting some proffitablу patterns. I highly recommend to think about automation.

agree 100%. by using automation you would literally free yourself up to observe other events and form further automation strategies. The combo of BA -> BF literally could be your goldmine, if you are able to translate that pattern recognition knowledge down onto *paper*.

for anyone starting out on this journey, I thoughroughly recommned using diagrams.net in chrome (https://chrome.google.com/webstore/deta ... d?hl=en-GB) in order to map out your plan. using a tool such as this will allow you to design your automation in a modular/considered fashion. and as a side benefit, you will find that you can re-use parts of the diagram(s) for other automation projects, thus alerting you to the parts of code that can be re-used.

anyway, many ways to skin a cat... enjoy what you're doing whichever way.

i'm loving the BA Guardian automation, i'm working on my 3rd bot now, a new strategy I have every hope for this one! That being said, as per what Kai said I am noticing the efficiency of the market when employing standard well known strategies, which makes them breakeven at best. But, I am working on something new now (sshhh top secret!)

[goat68]

New bot not doing particularly well, i'm looking for the next random thing to change in the hope it turns +ve...

[goat68]

Markets seems a battle at the moment, just a gentle grind into -ve territory, I'm hoping it's the time of year, how is everyone else doing?

[TraderFred]

Markets seems a battle at the moment, just a gentle grind into -ve territory, I'm hoping it's the time of year, how is everyone else doing?

It’s very quiet at the moment, goat68. Even by January standards. Lots of meetings falling to the weather so far this year.

[kamil2402]

Let's say there are a lot of areas where you can earn money...I agree.
For example in live football the price movements are still too much linked to the passing of time, and still too little to the dynamics of the game...I can imagine that you can profit from this aspect, for example by trading the under over.
You can profit by opening a South African race in the last 2 minutes before the start and wait for that one time out of 10 that a very high amount bet appears, to trade the fact that the guy wants that bet to be matched and will therefore accept a very low odds....

You can wait for those 2 days a month when repetitive and largely fallacious behaviour is created on greyhound market.

I can mark football pitches that become a quagmire when it rains a lot because they don't drain well...watch the weather forecast and listen to the news (not for premier league) on the pitches...when the opportunity arises back on the under ..the Siena stadium for example.

And a thousand other things you can do.

I completely agree that there are many opportunities...but let's say that it's not for me...I'm not keen on the idea.


I love trading in the final 5 minutes prerace, when the bulk of the liquidity comes in..I think it is the most difficult market that exists on betfair..but solving this puzzle is too exciting for me..
So much so that I do trading in practice mode not because I'm afraid of losing money..but because I don't need to put money to have fun..I have fun like crazy even in practice mode.
I like it too much.

Tomorrow I'll make an outline of the factors that I think are important..I'll write them down in a notebook,and make a note of how the market reacts when those situations arise.

I really like to have a general model of the various races..so I take a lot of factors into account..
But if you don't recommend this way, because it is too chaotic, I can do it the other way around...I just take one aspect and try it again and again until I try to understand in which situations it works...for example I take the top and bottom of a range and back at the high and lay at the bottom...or vice versa, back at the bottom and lay at the top....and then with time understand when it works and when it doesn't...but I am not very inspired by this...do you suggest this second way rather than a more sophisticated model?

If you want you can pm me and we can bounce some ideas off each other.

[kamil2402]

Markets seems a battle at the moment, just a gentle grind into -ve territory, I'm hoping it's the time of year, how is everyone else doing?

Did pretty well yesterday 70% strike rate, all manual pre race. Traded 13 markets in total. They reminded me very much of greyhound markets.

[vhdgkl]

now

meydan 16.25

very large back bet availableon [email protected]
price go down @4

(last minute before the off!this detail is fundamental..because it guarantees that the guy does not want to manipulate anything but only wants to place his bet..if it waits the last minute,it's because it needs liquidity that isn t there....he cant find money to accept it..he will accept a much lower price)


this is an example of edge

[goat68]

now

meydan 16.25

very large back bet availableon [email protected]
price go down @4

(last minute before the off!this detail is fundamental..because it guarantees that the guy does not want to manipulate anything but only wants to place his bet..if it waits the last minute,it's because it needs liquidity that isn t there....he cant find money to accept it..he will accept a much lower price)


this is an example of edge

Hi, thanks for this. So you saw a load of money queued at 5.2 not being taken but the price was lower and because other traders also see that money waiting they all pushed the price down to 4? Seems a odd not sure i understand?

[vhdgkl]

now

meydan 16.25

very large back bet availableon [email protected]
price go down @4

(last minute before the off!this detail is fundamental..because it guarantees that the guy does not want to manipulate anything but only wants to place his bet..if it waits the last minute,it's because it needs liquidity that isn t there....he cant find money to accept it..he will accept a much lower price)


this is an example of edge

Hi, thanks for this. So you saw a load of money queued at 5.2 not being taken but the price was lower and because other traders also see that money waiting they all pushed the price down to 4? Seems a odd not sure i understand?

jes..last minute before the off...
not in uk.
in south african horse racing..in usa horse racing..in australia harness..where there is a bit of money,but not too much to attract traders---and,in horse racing markets, as themoney comes in at the last, because of the characterisics of horse markets.
large bets last minute before the off?trade,trade that money
1 out of 10 times?...min,30pounds.

[goat68]

now

meydan 16.25

very large back bet availableon [email protected]
price go down @4

(last minute before the off!this detail is fundamental..because it guarantees that the guy does not want to manipulate anything but only wants to place his bet..if it waits the last minute,it's because it needs liquidity that isn t there....he cant find money to accept it..he will accept a much lower price)


this is an example of edge

Hi, thanks for this. So you saw a load of money queued at 5.2 not being taken but the price was lower and because other traders also see that money waiting they all pushed the price down to 4? Seems a odd not sure i understand?

jes..last minute before the off...
not in uk.
in south african horse racing..in usa horse racing..in australia harness..where there is a bit of money,but not too much to attract traders---and,in horse racing markets, as themoney comes in at the last, because of the characterisics of horse markets.
large bets last minute before the off?trade,trade that money
1 out of 10 times?...min,30pounds.

Its interesting you mention not too much money to attract traders, i think i see what you mean, the UK racing has too much volume and traders so the market just gets efficient with little movement and thus few opportunities...

[goat68]

Just watched Kemp 18:50 and there were some decent moves, but my bot picked none of them!! Interesting watch Elmjor, and it came in quite a bit, but I could see no "indicator" it would do that, so not surprising bot didn't either.
I am thinking maybe entering at random is better, as if you create a bot based on indicators they are lagging and as far as I can see no indicator. I'm guessing with so many 1000s of traders/bots, anything obvious is going to be -ev.

[goat68]

Bot traded 8 markets today with a 100% losses......

[goat68]

My Bots PnL so far this month, an obvious trend! :

PnLChart.jpg

[goat68]

Going to invert my current bot for the next week, see what happens

[Trader Pat]

My Bots PnL so far this month, an obvious trend! :
PnLChart.jpg

Time alone isn't a good metric, you have to break it down into race types and see if there's a pattern.

Also sample size is very important, you'd probably need at least 1,000 to be able to make any kind of judgement