The easiest lay you'll ever get.....

[Fugazi]

Curacao currently 60-1 on the exchange vs Germany


I don't see how they could ever win this game??

I mean of course keeper gets sent off first minute type event. Even then still don't think they could. 60-1 seems an obvious lay??

[jamesedwards]

Iraq were 60.0 to beat Spain this evening and drew 1-1.

[jamesedwards]

And Ivory Coast have just won 2-1 away in France, despite trading at 20.0 at kick-off and as high as 70.0 in-play.

[Fugazi]

Iraq were 60.0 to beat Spain this evening and drew 1-1.

But they didn't beat them... and that wasn't the WC...

And curaco aren't Iraq

I don't think it could NEVER happen. just more like 500-1. I guess that's the good thing about these kind of markets. Lack of data so there are some 2005 type easy pickings to be had / nobody REALLY knows. Hard to factor in the kind of motivation the World Cup can give a team. I remember a few world cups ago New Zealand were the only unbeaten team.

[weemac]

If you think it's 500/1, yet the collective valuation of all other punters, including the most experienced professionals with the best models, is 60/1, who do you think is more likely to be correct, and why? Do you have knowledge that no-one else has?

Can you not find a better, quicker and easier way to deploy £600 to win a tenner? (less commission)

I do know that Germany are much weaker compared to past incarnations, and Curacao dominated Scotland for 45 mins last week before collapsing.

[tryingtotrade]

They smoked Scotland the other day, better team for most of the match

[Fugazi]

If you think it's 500/1, yet the collective valuation of all other punters, including the most experienced professionals with the best models, is 60/1, who do you think is more likely to be correct, and why? Do you have knowledge that no-one else has?

Can you not find a better, quicker and easier way to deploy £600 to win a tenner? (less commission)

I do know that Germany are much weaker compared to past incarnations, and Curacao dominated Scotland for 45 mins last week before collapsing.

I'm exaggerating, and won't be taking 60-1 as I don't have the funds needed to make it worthwhile punting on

But don't agree it's an efficient market. Sure it's probably in the 40 to 100-1 ballpark but you can't really model a team that's never even been to a WC that accurately

[ShaunWhite]

But don't agree it's an efficient market. Sure it's probably in the 40 to 100-1 ballpark but you can't really model a team that's never even been to a WC that accurately

This is the truth about all markets, the actual starting probability is unknowable.
And why probabilities (odds) are just the central (or skewed) point of a distribution of probabilities. What matters is the width of the bell curve, a well informed market is tight and a one-off event is a wide curve. So yes 40 to 100 represents a likey range for a one-off whereas if they'd met a dozen times before it might be 55 to 65.

There no money betting at accurate probability, but there is if you look at the likelihood of the market being wrong, even though the spot price is 'correct'.