Is little Acorns genuine or a blag!?

Don't chase your losses, it doesn't work. You will eventually bust your bank.
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Atho55
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Just when you thought this had died a death... 6 months update

Little Acorns 6mths.jpg
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wearthefoxhat
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Atho55 wrote:
Wed Feb 15, 2023 6:24 pm
Just when you thought this had died a death... 6 months update


Little Acorns 6mths.jpg

Nice Work. ;)
elofan0
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Well done good to see
SemiOTF
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Atho55 wrote:
Wed Feb 15, 2023 6:24 pm
Just when you thought this had died a death... 6 months update


Little Acorns 6mths.jpg
Just curious, are you actually running this strategy yourself or is this based off back testing? Doesn't really make a difference I suppose, but I'm just being nosey!
Atho55
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Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

It`s back testing. Simple odds criteria to meet on the top 3 favourites and the fave either wins or loses. Only bit that`s in doubt is getting matched at BSP on which the results are based
Teleman85
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Joined: Wed Jun 28, 2023 1:05 pm

Atho55 wrote:
Wed Feb 15, 2023 6:24 pm
Just when you thought this had died a death... 6 months update


Little Acorns 6mths.jpg
Hi. Any update?!
Teleman85
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Atho55 wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 4:06 pm
Hi Shaun, I can answer your queries.

1. It`s GB horses only not dogs and unsure why you think otherwise. Re sample size it is what it is. Ideally it should be bigger, but it is at least doing some observation instead of moving from discovery to testing live on small stakes which seems to be the advice generally given.
2. I did the backfitting or tweaking to find a set of odds that worked, and they have remained the same since the 15th Aug. All I do is refresh the Pivot tables from the data in the database.
3. It`s called Little Acorns so I don`t think it was ever meant to have hundreds of bets per day.

It`s easy to increase the bet count by adjusting the criteria. Have others being observed based upon the same generic idea such as Lay Rank 2, Lay Rank 3 when the odds on the other ranks hit threshold values but generally did them out of curiosity more than anything else
Are you able to share any of the others you have with adjusted criteria?
HotStreak
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Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2019 1:23 pm

Bar running LA I don't do much else these days. Merry days of trading and advantage play betting/casino are long behind me.

I use a slightly modified system with Lay 1-4. It's poodled along nicely for a number of years, however, last quarter it's been absolutely slammed, with the win % down 10 points on a typical 3 month period.

Very tempted to knock it on the head, but do like to have a soupcon of skin still in the game.
Teleman85
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HotStreak wrote:
Fri Jun 30, 2023 8:09 pm
Bar running LA I don't do much else these days. Merry days of trading and advantage play betting/casino are long behind me.

I use a slightly modified system with Lay 1-4. It's poodled along nicely for a number of years, however, last quarter it's been absolutely slammed, with the win % down 10 points on a typical 3 month period.

Very tempted to knock it on the head, but do like to have a soupcon of skin still in the game.
You been playing level stakes long run? If so, have you seen much of a margin?
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ShaunWhite
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"Little acrorns" is a strange choice of name, yeah it's a cheesy play on "....mighty oaks do grow" but the oak is just about the slowest growing tree there is !!

Is anyone using the Leylandii Cuttings strategy? :)
Atho55
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This is an update on the LA strategy which looks to agree with an earlier post re its decline in fortunes. IRE has not been updated yet so just GB Revised and Original.

LA Update.png
Having a look for the reason it looks like at least over a sample of BSP odds that Rank 1 is winning more than it has done historically over the few months of decline. Looking at BSP Ranks 1-3 and selecting and keeping a range of odds for each but changing the year(s) the average win win% can be seen (Gold cells)

Avg Win 2022.png



Avg Win 2023.png
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Teleman85
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Atho55 wrote:
Mon Jul 03, 2023 8:53 am
This is an update on the LA strategy which looks to agree with an earlier post re its decline in fortunes. IRE has not been updated yet so just GB Revised and Original.


LA Update.png

Having a look for the reason it looks like at least over a sample of BSP odds that Rank 1 is winning more than it has done historically over the few months of decline. Looking at BSP Ranks 1-3 and selecting and keeping a range of odds for each but changing the year(s) the average win win% can be seen (Gold cells)


Avg Win 2022.png





Avg Win 2023.png
Thank you. Good info.
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ShaunWhite
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Atho55 wrote:
Mon Jul 03, 2023 8:53 am
Having a look for the reason it looks like at least over a sample of BSP odds that Rank 1 is winning more than it has done historically over the few months of decline.
The top of the market BSP swings from being positive to negative over long periods, iro 6 months. People see its paying, they pile in so it reduces slowly and goes negative, then people slowly give up on it maybe seeing it's now lay value, and value starts to return. The issue is predicting when that tipping point happens.

Any strategy found in data has to pass the "why" test and I don't see a reason LA should work. Where's the 'why'?

That chart just looks like the output from a random strategy that's showing mean reversion to me.
Atho55
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Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm
Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

The top of the market BSP swings from being positive to negative over long periods, iro 6 months.


You got any evidence of this you can present for scrutiny?
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Brovashift
Posts: 476
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jul 03, 2023 11:35 am
Atho55 wrote:
Mon Jul 03, 2023 8:53 am
Having a look for the reason it looks like at least over a sample of BSP odds that Rank 1 is winning more than it has done historically over the few months of decline.
The top of the market BSP swings from being positive to negative over long periods, iro 6 months. People see its paying, they pile in so it reduces slowly and goes negative, then people slowly give up on it maybe seeing it's now lay value, and value starts to return. The issue is predicting when that tipping point happens.

Any strategy found in data has to pass the "why" test and I don't see a reason LA should work. Where's the 'why'?

That chart just looks like the output from a random strategy that's showing mean reversion to me.
What is a positive BSP vs a negative BSP, and is the top of the market the BSP Fav?

Is it referring to how accurately favs are priced over time? If it is, then it makes me think about the old adage "favs only win 1/3 of the time"... A third of what; 6months, 12 months... 5 years :?:

My brain hurts already lol :D Be interesting to know though...
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