Is little Acorns genuine or a blag!?

[Brovashift]

Hi all,

I've been testing out the Little Acorn strategy this week with £1 stakes using the Fibinacci staking plan, and either I am doing it wrong or it just doesn't stack up. It was shared on the forum so thought it might have some legs, however small they may be, and thought it might be something to work on in the background of my manual trading. Reading the website it does read very much like a 90's internet scam! lol

Anyone who doesn't know; you basically lay odds-on favs where the 2nd fav is <=6.0 and 3rd fav <=10.0, and the only criteria to check is that the 1st fav is not a BF. Reading up on how often BF win the next race I read it was around 19% of the time, thats my first red flag!

My first 2 lay won, great... but I've just had 5 concecutive losses. The author says the bigest lost they ever had was 9 losses in a row. I am in my first week and already had 5 lol. I found this pdf of the strategy online, I wonder if its a blag of the proper strategy

Anyway, using the fibinacci staking doesn't add up, and looks very much like a martingale to me....

Fibinacci: 1 - 1- 2 - 3 - 5 - 8.....

My sequence: lost £0.92, lost another £0.52, lost £2, lost £2.34, and just lost £3.30... the next in the fib staking plan is 8x my stake (£8). But total loss this far is £9.08. Unless I include the first 2 winning lays (£2), then assuming the next £8 lay wins then Im at £11!?

It does say this is not a betting strategy but an "investment" strategy!

Please tell me this is not a thing?

[Edit: That £2 loss in the sequence is wrong, it was actually £1.28 @1.64. So the total loss is £8.36, 36p out, and thats because I took @1.92 odds on the first loss of -92p. The next number in the fib sequence (8) doesn't look too bad now]

[wearthefoxhat]

It's still an interesting method as you are laying an odds-on shot with competition against 2f and 3f (according to the market). Nowadays, I'd be more inclined to find extra reason(s) to oppose the odds-on favourite.

Double check the odds-on favourite wasn't a BF on its last run.
Also, I'd tend to avoid debut runners that are odds-on. (Prefer to have some form to evaluate)
I'd use level stakes and increase stakes from profit. (personal choice)

Haven't heard of anyone using it exactly same way the original .pdf outlined. At the height of it's popularity, you could L2B the odds-on selection as many selections ended up odds against.

[Brovashift]

It's still an interesting method as you are laying an odds-on shot with competition against 2f and 3f (according to the market). Nowadays, I'd be more inclined to find extra reason(s) to oppose the odds-on favourite.

Double check the odds-on favourite wasn't a BF on its last run.
Also, I'd tend to avoid debut runners that are odds-on. (Prefer to have some form to evaluate)
I'd use level stakes and increase stakes from profit. (personal choice)

Haven't heard of anyone using it exactly same way the original .pdf outlined. At the height of it's popularity, you could L2B the odds-on selection as many selections ended up odds against.

Hi weatherfoxhat, thanks for this....

So there is something to it, its not better off in the bin lol. I was reading last night about how often BFs win second time round and it was saying to check if it was a genuine fav in the last race or not, and the criteria to check against, which I cant remember now without looking. Also AW for higher strike rate.
I actually missed out 2 races yesterday because they were BF, and they didn't win so possibly not genuine favs. Had I have laid those I wouldn't be writing this post lol.

It was just the Fibonacci staking that was throwing me as it doesn't seem to recoup losses, I might as well just add any loss to the next lay.
How does level staking work, it sounds like you use the same stake amount each time? Thats what I was doing by laying £1 each time. Like that?

I like the L2B idea, something I thought about if it could be automated. But I was presuming it'd be tricky if outside data, such as BF data, was needed as a condition to place a lay. One step at a time lol.

[wearthefoxhat]

It's still an interesting method as you are laying an odds-on shot with competition against 2f and 3f (according to the market). Nowadays, I'd be more inclined to find extra reason(s) to oppose the odds-on favourite.

Double check the odds-on favourite wasn't a BF on its last run.
Also, I'd tend to avoid debut runners that are odds-on. (Prefer to have some form to evaluate)
I'd use level stakes and increase stakes from profit. (personal choice)

Haven't heard of anyone using it exactly same way the original .pdf outlined. At the height of it's popularity, you could L2B the odds-on selection as many selections ended up odds against.

Hi weatherfoxhat, thanks for this....

So there is something to it, its not better off in the bin lol. I was reading last night about how often BFs win second time round and it was saying to check if it was a genuine fav in the last race or not, and the criteria to check against, which I cant remember now without looking. Also AW for higher strike rate.
I actually missed out 2 races yesterday because they were BF, and they didn't win so possibly not genuine favs. Had I have laid those I wouldn't be writing this post lol.

It was just the Fibonacci staking that was throwing me as it doesn't seem to recoup losses, I might as well just add any loss to the next lay.
How does level staking work, it sounds like you use the same stake amount each time? Thats what I was doing by laying £1 each time. Like that?

I like the L2B idea, something I thought about if it could be automated. But I was presuming it'd be tricky if outside data, such as BF data, was needed as a condition to place a lay. One step at a time lol.

TBH the BF is one that can be a banana skin as there are many reasons a horse can lose a race without the general public knowing the real reasons why. The BF types in general can be overbet on their next run.

The Fib staking has a chance to work as the liability is under control, unless you have that 9 losing sequence you mentioned (that never happens?) The level stakes would be Fixed stakes. I'd be inclined to use square root staking (from profits) to calculate a new stake.

Here's a .baf I did a while ago. (test if first though)

LAcorns.baf

You can adjust it to trade out near the off and convert it to L2B, or let it go on its own. I'd remove a race if the early market estimated a qualifying race with a BF.

[Brovashift]

It's still an interesting method as you are laying an odds-on shot with competition against 2f and 3f (according to the market). Nowadays, I'd be more inclined to find extra reason(s) to oppose the odds-on favourite.

Double check the odds-on favourite wasn't a BF on its last run.
Also, I'd tend to avoid debut runners that are odds-on. (Prefer to have some form to evaluate)
I'd use level stakes and increase stakes from profit. (personal choice)

Haven't heard of anyone using it exactly same way the original .pdf outlined. At the height of it's popularity, you could L2B the odds-on selection as many selections ended up odds against.

Hi weatherfoxhat, thanks for this....

So there is something to it, its not better off in the bin lol. I was reading last night about how often BFs win second time round and it was saying to check if it was a genuine fav in the last race or not, and the criteria to check against, which I cant remember now without looking. Also AW for higher strike rate.
I actually missed out 2 races yesterday because they were BF, and they didn't win so possibly not genuine favs. Had I have laid those I wouldn't be writing this post lol.

It was just the Fibonacci staking that was throwing me as it doesn't seem to recoup losses, I might as well just add any loss to the next lay.
How does level staking work, it sounds like you use the same stake amount each time? Thats what I was doing by laying £1 each time. Like that?

I like the L2B idea, something I thought about if it could be automated. But I was presuming it'd be tricky if outside data, such as BF data, was needed as a condition to place a lay. One step at a time lol.

TBH the BF is one that can be a banana skin as there are many reasons a horse can lose a race without the general public knowing the real reasons why. The BF types in general can be overbet on their next run.

The Fib staking has a chance to work as the liability is under control, unless you have that 9 losing sequence you mentioned (that never happens?) The level stakes would be Fixed stakes. I'd be inclined to use square root staking (from profits) to calculate a new stake.

Here's a .baf I did a while ago. (test if first though)

LAcorns.baf

You can adjust it to trade out near the off and convert it to L2B, or let it go on its own. I'd remove a race if the early market estimated a qualifying race with a BF.

Cheers Weatherfox,

Im not at my computer now, just on my phone, but will download and check the baf out tomorrow, thanks.
I never thought about a BF getting over backed in its next race, good shout .
When you talk about the 'early market', just how early are we talking? I notice that some races qualify (under acorn rules) early in the morning but tend to leave them until 15-10mins before when more money has arrived and shows a truer picture of what people think its chances are (according to the acorn pdf).

[wearthefoxhat]

Cheers Weatherfox,

Im not at my computer now, just on my phone, but will download and check the baf out tomorrow, thanks.
I never thought about a BF getting over backed in its next race, good shout .
When you talk about the 'early market', just how early are we talking? I notice that some races qualify (under acorn rules) early in the morning but tend to leave them until 15-10mins before when more money has arrived and shows a truer picture of what people think its chances are (according to the acorn pdf).

It's a judgement call.

If on oddchecker, there appears to be a qualifying race early morning and the qualifier was a BF, then easy enough to leave out.

The market near the off is a grey area if automating, I'd say if early morning market 1st/2nd favourites are not BF, then I'd include as a qualifying race and see how it pans out.

It's tempting to drop the BF rule altogether, of course that's a personal choice.

[MobiusGrey]

Just to add my 2 penneth, I did LA a few years ago and made a little bit of money, the only reason I stopped was because it was too slow but the selection method is pretty sound. The fib staking plan can get a bit hairy and personally I just did % of bank, you're laying at odds on so it really isn't an issue what method you use. As WTFH suggested the 'don't lay BF LTO' is a bit of a misnomer, I tended to find these offer better value in the long run as they tend to be well backed by mug punters. I did however, and I'll see if I can dig my spreadsheet out, find that avoiding odds on horses that were on a hatrick offered a slightly better edge. Anyway, if you want to make a little income on the side it's a pretty sound strat.

[ShaunWhite]

Hi all,

I've been testing out the Little Acorn strategy this week up on how

My first 2 lay won, great... but I've just had 5 concecutive losses. The author says the bigest lost they ever had was 9 losses in a row. I am in my first week and already had 5 lol. I found this pdf of the strategy online, I wonder if its a blag of the proper strategy

It does say this is not a betting strategy but an "investment" strategy!

WTF is an "investment strategy"

It seems pretty straightforward so instead of testing it why don't you backtest it? Cheaper, faster, easy to make adjustments etc. The price you want doesn't even seem to come into it so it's not like you need to have market tick data.

You say you're worried its a rehashed 90s strategy but you're using a 90s approach to testing it, and I know you're smart enough to know that any sample less than 100+ means nothing. Work smarter rather than harder.

[wearthefoxhat]

Did an Adrian Massey search for August so far...(couple of guessy ones, but would have prob qualified pre-off)

Results as per the .pdf (do they match yours @brova?)

LARes.png

[Brovashift]

Just to add my 2 penneth, I did LA a few years ago and made a little bit of money, the only reason I stopped was because it was too slow but the selection method is pretty sound. The fib staking plan can get a bit hairy and personally I just did % of bank, you're laying at odds on so it really isn't an issue what method you use. As WTFH suggested the 'don't lay BF LTO' is a bit of a misnomer, I tended to find these offer better value in the long run as they tend to be well backed by mug punters. I did however, and I'll see if I can dig my spreadsheet out, find that avoiding odds on horses that were on a hatrick offered a slightly better edge. Anyway, if you want to make a little income on the side it's a pretty sound strat.

I am thinking of scraping the BF all together as I think using the selection method, or variation of, for a L2B might work even better with a modest 10% of stake target.
Just out of curiosity though, when did you choose to enter a lay in order to take advantage of an over backed BF next time out, Im guessing close to the off?

[Brovashift]

Hi all,

I've been testing out the Little Acorn strategy this week up on how

My first 2 lay won, great... but I've just had 5 concecutive losses. The author says the bigest lost they ever had was 9 losses in a row. I am in my first week and already had 5 lol. I found this pdf of the strategy online, I wonder if its a blag of the proper strategy

It does say this is not a betting strategy but an "investment" strategy!

WTF is an "investment strategy"

It seems pretty straightforward so instead of testing it why don't you backtest it? Cheaper, faster, easy to make adjustments etc. The price you want doesn't even seem to come into it so it's not like you need to have market tick data.

You say you're worried its a rehashed 90s strategy but you're using a 90s approach to testing it, and I know you're smart enough to know that any sample less than 100+ means nothing. Work smarter rather than harder.

Oh shit, busted! I think I should know already how to back test shouldn't I. Im sure I asked about modelling data before and I tickled the idea of something basic in Excel lol. Checking my ToDo list; Yep there it is, item number (7) lol.

Im leaning more towards a L2B now, similar selection process, but hedge position when/if 10% of stake reached. Am I right in thinking everything I'd need to back test that is contained in promo.betfair.com directory?

No offence to Little Acorns, its not that it reads like a rehashed 90's strategy, thats almost a complement lol. I think it reads more like one of those 'get rich quick' schemes where the long drawn out text almost lulls into thinking you can tell your boss what he can do with his job next week as you sail off into the sunset with your new ebook selling website peppered with Google Ads. And for this short time offer of £97

[Brovashift]

Did an Adrian Massey search for August so far...(couple of guessy ones, but would have prob qualified pre-off)

Results as per the .pdf (do they match yours @brova?)


LARes.png

Erm... no! lol The only one I got was Andaleep on the 10th. I only got 7 on this week, had a few more to keep an eye on (race times) that I was supposed to do via the Betfair app while out and about, but kept forgetting. I know I missed a few winning lays.

I actually made a rules file the same as yours but with an alert and popup box telling to check for BF. But Im thinking of scraping the BF and the LA "loss recovery" staking for the L2B approach, aiming to green up if/when 10% of stake reached. Looking at the promo.betfair data this morning I think this could have a decent strike rate as in many cases 10% could be reached even before the off. If not then in play should do it, most of the time.

However, Im not sure when the best time for entry would be, because looking at the betfair data (odds on) (BSP, PPMAX/MIN, IPMAX/MIN) it looks like some prices come in from their early morning prices to bsp, so favouring an entry closer to post, and some prices go out meaning more beneficial to enter early morning. Obviously I dont know if these races would have met the selection criteria based on the data in promo.betfair data, so... humm! [Thinking aloud]

Also I noticed in your LAcorns baf your 2nd and 3rd favs are <=5 & <=12, is that to get more qualifying races, or does it make for a more competative 2nd fav and a higher priced 3rd fav could put slightly more downward pressure on the 1st favs price, nudge a few more ticks out of it?

[wearthefoxhat]

BrovaR.png

If your entry point was early morning/afternoon, then I can imagine the price ranges will change and results will differ. The original .pdf says entry point should be 5 minutes before the off. My list was base on BSP and guesswork estimating that the prices may not of dramatically altered.

The original system was published 2008 (although offered for sale in 2003) when Betfair was in its heyday.

Also I noticed in your LAcorns baf your 2nd and 3rd favs are <=5 & <=12, is that to get more qualifying races, or does it make for a more competative 2nd fav and a higher priced 3rd fav could put slightly more downward pressure on the 1st favs price, nudge a few more ticks out of it?

The price ranges should have been as per the original .pdf. The .baf I uploaded was one I was practising on. My bad.

I am thinking of scraping the BF all together as I think using the selection method, or variation of, for a L2B might work even better with a modest 10% of stake target.

Tend to agree. The metrics over time may have changed when compared to 14 years+ ago and it's a pain to keep checking on too.

[ShaunWhite]

with a modest 10% of stake target.

Do you think you'll get 10% more or less often than twice the frequency you'd get 20%?
Do you think you'll get 10% more or less often than half the frequency you'd get 5%?

When you're a one man operation you need to be the SoB who asks yourself the difficult questions as well as the one having the ideas.

Think of something, then put all your energy into ripping it apart by being that kid who keeps asking "why". When you've answered all of them the idea might have legs. Basically always try to prove you're wrong rather than trying to confirm you're right.

So.... Why 10%? "feels modest" isn't an answer. Automation isn't about feelings it's pure fact so how could you go about proving 10% is the right choice. What would you need to do?

[Atho55]

Ran the criteria through some data and here is what I believe it shows. Data range is Jan 2020 till now. Obviously not considered previous runs. Commission not considered either. GB races only (Not IRE)

LA1.jpg

To be an applicable bet it has to hit a count of 3 (yellow cells) then ideally also be a winning bet (1 in green cell)

Over this period returns for a £25 Lay bet would have circa £378 and numerically you would have had 420 bets that won and 501 that lost over this period.

Adjusting the odds values you COULD HAVE improved the position though this may not be any use going forward. The alternate values are these.

LA2.jpg

Rank 1 2.26, Rank 2 6.7 and Rank 3 10.1 This increases the £ returns and increases the wins to a greater value than the losses. You will need to satisfy yourself that these values are any good (and apply comms) before calling Sunseeker for a brochure.