Horses of Interest Saturday 8th May - updated!!!

The sport of kings.
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JollyGreen
Posts: 2047
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

I know that Desert Myth is running today in the Derby Trial at Lingfield. I like this horse but the odds seem a bit skinny now at 2.90. I can actually see this touching the 2.80 mark and possibly down to 2.76 but I would be surprised if it got lower than that. The main concern is the ground and if he will handle the downhill run at Lingfield. This is enough to put me off because I felt 3.50 was as low I would take.

Is it me but why is Captain James Cook half the price of the other O'Brien runner Don Carlos? On ratings he is at least 20lbs inferior to his stable mate. The reason is a actually a simple one - the stable jockey Johnny Murtagh has chosen him in preference to Don Carlos. Crazy but it happens all the time! Perhaps they know something about him? I want to see him run first!

The horse I do like today is Mahonia 4:10 Haydock and his connections rated him highly enough to run him at Cheltenham in the festival. I don't think the stiff undulating track suited him and I also think he looks more of a chaser. He was the meat in a sandwich on his chasing debut but in this small field on a flatter track should see the best of him. He is 3.10 currently and I'd be surprised to see him below 3.00 and hopefully we'll get 3.30 later - anything bigger would be welcome. He is a good mover so he should offer a chance to the BTL crew!
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ba1000
Posts: 100
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 6:02 pm

Hi JollyGreen,

(I'm having a day off however you always grab my attention.)

Whats your style? Are you generally a layer.

The horse Mahonia 4:10 - if I have got this right this is a LTBTL

LAY TO BACK TO LAY again? or

LAY TO BACK TO WIN

just interested but I know your trading - so whenever you've got the time.
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JollyGreen
Posts: 2047
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

I'd be looking to back this horse with a view to laying it back. I think this should trade lower in running.
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ba1000
Posts: 100
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 6:02 pm

Thanks JollyGreen,

Looks like strong resistance now and a bottom is forming in this sideways pattern.

Its now down to the horses performance in play which is going to move the price.

Buckle down the hatches!
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ba1000
Posts: 100
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 6:02 pm

Bang bottom confirmed as the horse is drifting up
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ba1000
Posts: 100
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 6:02 pm

still drifting in play looks like it does not have a hope fingers crossed
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ba1000
Posts: 100
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 6:02 pm

and there you go -£30 for me - at least you tried.

I did not like the chart at all - remember i have no TV pictures I am just reading the chart - in at 3.45 looking for 3.15 - it just did not happen this time.
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JollyGreen
Posts: 2047
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Something was amiss with the horse, I wonder if it was slightly injured at one of the fences? No excuses, they can't all win but they pulled him up so something must have been wrong.
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ba1000
Posts: 100
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 6:02 pm

no worries JollyGreen

- however it was interesting that my reading of the chart was spot on - I really liked the other two charts of the second and third favourite you could see the chart patterns forming steaming patterns.
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ba1000
Posts: 100
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 6:02 pm

hi JollyGreen

from my bank of £18 - +£2.50 back already! just from

1) a trade

2) an inplay - gamble by reading the charts that the horse would be a drifter
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