The favourite Chabal is worthy of his position at the head of the market but I feel the price of 3.15 is a bit on the skinny side. I think this price will probably drift back out later and trade more at 3.30 but then punters may step in and drive the price back down towards 3.00
This horse strikes me as a bit buzzy in that he pulls hard in his races and doesn't settle that well. He definitely pulled hard last time at Sandown but Frankie Dettori managed to settle him in behind the other 5 runners to conserve energy. He then came with a good run on the outside and beat Azmeel who was caught napping a bit. That horse went on to win the Dee Stakes at Chester and I think he will be a better horse at 12f than Chabal will be. Today there are just 5 runners so if Chabal pulls hard he is going to struggle to find cover behind just 4 horses and that could blow his chance. That alone makes me sceptical about his price of 3.15.
Workforce is thrown in at the deep end today, this is just his second race and they are aiming him at a Group 1. I just cannot see this horse being able to win this race with so little experience. I would add that if he does win then good luck to him but at 3.50 his price is just crazy
If the stats are to be believed then this horse cannot win and I can see this one drifting later. If the drift comes then it will probably be accentuated by support for Chabal and I can see this happeningCoordinated Cut was all the rage last year but he is a horse I simply cannot take to. I don't like his running style and he seems to hold his head quite high and on one side. He also strikes me as a big boat of a horse who will surely need further than 10f on fast ground. He ran well against Ameer and managed to get back up and win after being chopped up by that horse. He is up against real 10f specialists today and I wonder if he'll be able to hold his position early and go with them when the speed comes on for the finish? I think he should be nearer 8.00 in price than 5.60 and I can see this being a real drifter later.
Cape Blanco With the current form of Aiden O'Brien's horses you cannot really have an interest in this horse. He is also by Galileo so I just cannot see him having the speed for this race and will surely benefit from further. I wonder if they are using this as other discovery race. The price of 5.40 is derisory and I think this will also be a drifter later. He just has nothing going for him and even if he wins by 10 lengths you could only be wise after the event and I would have to give a big negative to this horse.
Circumvent is the big outsider in this race but I cannot understand the large difference in the prices?
If you simply go by Racing Post ratings he is not far off the likes of Cape Blanco, Coordinated Cut etc but he is priced at 25 and was at 40 earlier How can then be correct? Is it because he is not from one of the fashionable or high powered stables/Owners??? He clearly has improvement in him and he ran well all three times in France with the ground being unsuitable on all but his final run. He's by Tobougg out of a Dr Devious mare so today's ground should be fine. The only concern will be the 10f, is it far enough for him? Well at 25 you can take a chance because he as much chance as Cape Blanco but he is five times the price Chabal looks the likely winner and if I am honest I couldn't fancy any of the others at the prices on offer. I could take a chance on Circumvent because in my humble opinion he should be 5.00-6.00 and he's 25.00
For the BTL players I must just add that Circumvent may well go from the front in this race so you should hopefully get a nice shortening of his price!