Bookmakers prices

[stueytrader]

How much would you estimate you rate the importance of bookmakers prices in your trading? (e.g. selecting entries, exits, swings and scalps decisions...)

On a scale: 0 (not in any way important) to 10 (absolutely essential)

Personally, I'd rate it about 6 in my own trading, for estimating moves, entry points etc.
One thing I have noticed is that for some races they can provide completely opposing/misleading information in relation to the exchange market, though that in itself seems possibly useful, despite being tricky.

Another aspect is whether specific bookies are more useful than others...

[Dallas]

I rate the live show prices very highly and rarely if ever get involved before they appear

[marko236]

I would rate it at 0, if anything i would think the bookies should be looking at the exchange to get an idea of what is going to alter in price.

[Euler]

I generally don't look at them at all. Doesn't mean there is nothing there, but I have found I've never needed them.

[stueytrader]

Thanks for those initial replies - very much on the low importance so far then from those giving an opinion.

So, nobody thinks that a horses price may shift on the exchange based on a bookmakers price change? I find that a surprising view, as I seem to see some of these happening in the exchange?

[stueytrader]

No-one consider a bookmaker price change (even a big one) would impact the exchange price?

[Euler]

I think the large overround can fool you with bookies. A shortening price may still not move BF because it could have 20% slack to move around in.

I've never spent much time on it, but perhaps people who have may be able to offer comment.

[stueytrader]

I think the large overround can fool you with bookies. A shortening price may still not move BF because it could have 20% slack to move around in.

I've never spent much time on it, but perhaps people who have may be able to offer comment.

The overround is a good point, in terms of the meaning of bookies price movements.

I'd still be interested to know if anyone makes any use of bookie prices/movements in their selections, but seems like little indication of that so far, unless anyone is against the trend on here.

One factor I'd thought that would be undeniable however, would be if an arb presented between BF and a bookies price - though of course might depend how long, which bookie etc.

[RentonT]

Also I think a lot of people forget that betfair is a win only market hence bigger prices, so you could get into trouble thinking a 7/1 horse should be 8.0 on betfair.
Although an Even money fav (and shorter) is likely to be closer to 2.0 on betfair than larger priced runners.

[stueytrader]

Also I think a lot of people forget that betfair is a win only market hence bigger prices, so you could get into trouble thinking a 7/1 horse should be 8.0 on betfair.
Although an Even money fav (and shorter) is likely to be closer to 2.0 on betfair than larger priced runners.

Always seemed odd to me, that difference. Many taking bookies prices will also be betting singles in 'win-only' too. Though I acknowledge they have the EW option.

[RentonT]

Yes and they are very silly haha becasuse they should use the exchange for a better price.

But yea I thought I would point out that the difference in price between bookie and betfair is not worth trying to match up. Although going back to topic subject I think something can be said for the bookies price movements (up/down), sometimes can help when reading the markets.

[Bluesky]

I've been watching a great deal of sports trading videos on youtube last few weeks and as Euler wrote in this thread he never uses them. MG on the other had mentions the live show prices in a lot of his videos, I guess it depends on ones style.

I imagine if your a winning trader who has been successful for years such as Euler, then there is no point looking at them if you haven't needed them in the past.

On the other hand if you are a losing trader and have never tried using the live show prices it might be an idea to see if they can help you make better decisions.

[Crazyskier]

I have tried live trading with Oddschecker open in a browser, however I find that generally the BF prices shorten very shortly BEFORE the bookie prices update, rather than the other way around, which would be more useful.

[Euler]

I've studied bookie prices a lot for many years and there is little correlation to future moves on Betfair. The spread on bookies prices are massive and therefore the Betfair price can move around inside that spread without affecting the bookie price or giving you any clue of how one affects the other.

On Betfair you get to see opinion discounted at almost zero spread so the activity there is a far better guide.

[Lutruwita]

10. It's critical.

But I'm an Australian trader.