Hi,
I thought I would have a play with the Lay The Draw bot yesterday and, initially, everything went swimmingly.
QPR v Leeds:
5 minutes before kick off: £10 Lay bet placed at 3.35.
QPR score, odds go out to 4.7, Back bet of 7.28 placed.
Happy days....
Leic v Man Utd
5 minutes before kick off: £10 Lay bet placed at 3.85.
United score, odds go out to 5.1, Back bet of 7.55 placed.
Happy days x 2....
Arsenal v Man City
5 minutes before kick off: £10 Lay bet placed at 3.85.
City score, odds go out to 4.4, Back bet of 8.25 placed
Happy days x 3...
The next two games, however...
Portland Timbers v Sporting Kansas City
5 minutes before kick off: £10 Lay bet placed at 3.75.
Within a couple of minutes of kick off, NEITHER TEAM have scored, odds go out to 3.8, Back bet of 9.87 placed.
Argentina v Algeria (Olympics)
5 minutes before kick off: £10 Lay bet placed at 5.18.
Within a couple of minutes of kick off, NEITHER TEAM have scored, odds go out to 5.3, Back bet of 9.78 placed.
Now, my computer programming days ended a long time ago, but it would seem to me that the two conditions that have to be met for the bot to green out (Green All profit >0 and Unsuspended time >90s) may not be enough to determine whether a goal has been scored or not.
Would there be a way around this? I've had a look at the other conditions available but nothing jumps out.
Mike
An oddity with the Lay The Draw automation
Without an actual score feed there is not a way to make a 100% accurate automation file based on football score lines, all you can do is group together some conditions which best replicate what would happen with the odds after a goal.
The basic lay the draw rule will work 99% of the time on liquid matches which involve fairly equal teams, on illiquid matches it can trigger without an actual goal being scored due to large gaps between the prices etc as money pops in and out the markets.
When using this particular rule set up with a match that has a strong fav should the underdog scores first the odds will likely shorten even further rather than drift so the rule may only end up triggering after a team has scored a 2nd goal.
If you look at the games you use the rule on the two matches it did not work well on will of both had very poor liquidity, where as the one it did work will of been both liquid and had evenly matched teams.
The basic lay the draw rule will work 99% of the time on liquid matches which involve fairly equal teams, on illiquid matches it can trigger without an actual goal being scored due to large gaps between the prices etc as money pops in and out the markets.
When using this particular rule set up with a match that has a strong fav should the underdog scores first the odds will likely shorten even further rather than drift so the rule may only end up triggering after a team has scored a 2nd goal.
If you look at the games you use the rule on the two matches it did not work well on will of both had very poor liquidity, where as the one it did work will of been both liquid and had evenly matched teams.
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mjmorris335
- Posts: 180
- Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2016 11:29 am
Ah, OK. That makes sense.
Many thanks.
Mike
Many thanks.
Mike
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shakespeare
- Posts: 113
- Joined: Sat May 21, 2016 1:43 pm
I used to add a volume condition (e.g. "market volume > 10000") to make sure my automations avoided illiquid markets. Now I have switched to using a condition that the spread must be no more than X ticks.