Edges come and go. An edge is just something that tells you that something is more likely to happen than not happen. That's all.
I don't think anybody has any edges where they are right about which way the price will go every time. I'm sure there are people who have indicators and signals that when they all line up give them a very good idea of which direction the market is heading,but even then you can never be certain. However convinced you are that a price will go up or down there is nothing to stop a 'mad bomber' type character turning up in the market and pushing the price the other way.
An edge is just about being right more than you are wrong, and winning more when you are right, than you lose when you wrong.
The only way you can find them is through doing your own research,coming up with your own theories, then either proving or disproving them.
Then when you do find one, you will realise why nobody ever comes on a public forum and gives them away for free. Some things that worked in the market 10 years ago still work today, though most edges don't last forever.
The market catches up eventually, spelling out all your edges to everybody just means that it catches up quicker.
The biggest Edge??
You really need to take time to read what people are saying because I get the impression you think you are taking all the information on board when I expect in reality it goes in one ear and out the other. Might sound harsh but I was like this.
I can't believe it has been almost 2 years since I started out learning to trade. It really does take time and you will only believe it if/when you get there. I would like to think I am almost there now and there are definitely eureka moments when it feels like the penny has dropped. But I have been through the tough times. My lifetime profit loss on betfair is about -£20k and I used to gamble before. But I have lost multiple banks of £500-£1000 when trading as I would lose all discipline and control of my emotions and then basically I would be gambling. Dealing with losses and chasing them has been my downfall.
Succeeding at trading is actually very very simple. REALLY F'ING SIMPLE!! That doesn't mean it is easy though, it is hard. And I firmly believe those that say how important a part psychology plays are spot on.
With the knowledge you have picked up and with continued experience watching and being active in the markets, you should have good indicators and feelings for which way the price is going to go, if looking to swing trade then you look for what "YOU BELIEVE" to be the right signals or feelings and then you pick your stake, your entry point with a target in mind and then it's all down to managing your position. And in simple times when you're right maximise the profits and when you're wrong close your position as quickly as possible. That way you will become consistently profitable. You don't need to have this "edge" that tells you which direction the price is going to go 100% of the time accurately. That's impossible because one of the golden rules is accepting that anything can happen in the markets. You could have low % strike rate and still be profitable.
And when scalping it's all about being quick!!! And DEFENSIVE! You should be scratching positions lots and lots when scalping. And again your own experience will help you in deciding when to scalp and also if price does go through you for a couple of ticks your experience will help you decide if you don't need to panic or if you need to close a red.
Your job is to predict what will happen. And you as I did are probably too focused on a quick easy lazy way to win at trading. Truth is you have to WORK HARD and become an expert on the markets yourself, experience and time.
BUT REMEMBER THIS, it really is all about the mental side of this game honestly. Control your emotions and your strategy. Analyse what your doing. Are you doing all the right things or are you cutting corners, are you obeying your own rules. It's hard to be honest even with yourself especially when you aren't getting the results you think you should be.
For me here is a list of important things:
stake size
entry position
exit position
exit strategy
my view on the market (is it doing what I predicted or has it changed now)
don't be biased when in a postion (try and be objective)
take a long term view on profits and success
don't take a trade in play EVER
And to finish off I bet people don't do this enough regarding stake size. Sometimes you will be less confident on a market and what will happen and sometimes you will be really confident what will happen. Do your stakes reflect this?? And as difficult as it is at the time try and remember you don't have to trade every market.
I can see where you are coming from Davangel but try if you can and really take on board what experienced people are telling you and accept these as truths and stop trying to find something that genuinely doesn't exist. When you get there you will understand that edges aren't what you thought they were (at present).
MANAGE MANAGE MANAGE!!!! Manage yourself, your strategies, your emotions.
I can't believe it has been almost 2 years since I started out learning to trade. It really does take time and you will only believe it if/when you get there. I would like to think I am almost there now and there are definitely eureka moments when it feels like the penny has dropped. But I have been through the tough times. My lifetime profit loss on betfair is about -£20k and I used to gamble before. But I have lost multiple banks of £500-£1000 when trading as I would lose all discipline and control of my emotions and then basically I would be gambling. Dealing with losses and chasing them has been my downfall.
Succeeding at trading is actually very very simple. REALLY F'ING SIMPLE!! That doesn't mean it is easy though, it is hard. And I firmly believe those that say how important a part psychology plays are spot on.
With the knowledge you have picked up and with continued experience watching and being active in the markets, you should have good indicators and feelings for which way the price is going to go, if looking to swing trade then you look for what "YOU BELIEVE" to be the right signals or feelings and then you pick your stake, your entry point with a target in mind and then it's all down to managing your position. And in simple times when you're right maximise the profits and when you're wrong close your position as quickly as possible. That way you will become consistently profitable. You don't need to have this "edge" that tells you which direction the price is going to go 100% of the time accurately. That's impossible because one of the golden rules is accepting that anything can happen in the markets. You could have low % strike rate and still be profitable.
And when scalping it's all about being quick!!! And DEFENSIVE! You should be scratching positions lots and lots when scalping. And again your own experience will help you in deciding when to scalp and also if price does go through you for a couple of ticks your experience will help you decide if you don't need to panic or if you need to close a red.
Your job is to predict what will happen. And you as I did are probably too focused on a quick easy lazy way to win at trading. Truth is you have to WORK HARD and become an expert on the markets yourself, experience and time.
BUT REMEMBER THIS, it really is all about the mental side of this game honestly. Control your emotions and your strategy. Analyse what your doing. Are you doing all the right things or are you cutting corners, are you obeying your own rules. It's hard to be honest even with yourself especially when you aren't getting the results you think you should be.
For me here is a list of important things:
stake size
entry position
exit position
exit strategy
my view on the market (is it doing what I predicted or has it changed now)
don't be biased when in a postion (try and be objective)
take a long term view on profits and success
don't take a trade in play EVER
And to finish off I bet people don't do this enough regarding stake size. Sometimes you will be less confident on a market and what will happen and sometimes you will be really confident what will happen. Do your stakes reflect this?? And as difficult as it is at the time try and remember you don't have to trade every market.
I can see where you are coming from Davangel but try if you can and really take on board what experienced people are telling you and accept these as truths and stop trying to find something that genuinely doesn't exist. When you get there you will understand that edges aren't what you thought they were (at present).
MANAGE MANAGE MANAGE!!!! Manage yourself, your strategies, your emotions.
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Where can I fin a clapping emoji?RentonT wrote:You really need to take time to read what people are saying because I get the impression you think you are taking all the information on board when I expect in reality it goes in one ear and out the other. Might sound harsh but I was like this.
I can't believe it has been almost 2 years since I started out learning to trade. It really does take time and you will only believe it if/when you get there. I would like to think I am almost there now and there are definitely eureka moments when it feels like the penny has dropped. But I have been through the tough times. My lifetime profit loss on betfair is about -£20k and I used to gamble before. But I have lost multiple banks of £500-£1000 when trading as I would lose all discipline and control of my emotions and then basically I would be gambling. Dealing with losses and chasing them has been my downfall.
Succeeding at trading is actually very very simple. REALLY F'ING SIMPLE!! That doesn't mean it is easy though, it is hard. And I firmly believe those that say how important a part psychology plays are spot on.
With the knowledge you have picked up and with continued experience watching and being active in the markets, you should have good indicators and feelings for which way the price is going to go, if looking to swing trade then you look for what "YOU BELIEVE" to be the right signals or feelings and then you pick your stake, your entry point with a target in mind and then it's all down to managing your position. And in simple times when you're right maximise the profits and when you're wrong close your position as quickly as possible. That way you will become consistently profitable. You don't need to have this "edge" that tells you which direction the price is going to go 100% of the time accurately. That's impossible because one of the golden rules is accepting that anything can happen in the markets. You could have low % strike rate and still be profitable.
And when scalping it's all about being quick!!! And DEFENSIVE! You should be scratching positions lots and lots when scalping. And again your own experience will help you in deciding when to scalp and also if price does go through you for a couple of ticks your experience will help you decide if you don't need to panic or if you need to close a red.
Your job is to predict what will happen. And you as I did are probably too focused on a quick easy lazy way to win at trading. Truth is you have to WORK HARD and become an expert on the markets yourself, experience and time.
BUT REMEMBER THIS, it really is all about the mental side of this game honestly. Control your emotions and your strategy. Analyse what your doing. Are you doing all the right things or are you cutting corners, are you obeying your own rules. It's hard to be honest even with yourself especially when you aren't getting the results you think you should be.
For me here is a list of important things:
stake size
entry position
exit position
exit strategy
my view on the market (is it doing what I predicted or has it changed now)
don't be biased when in a postion (try and be objective)
take a long term view on profits and success
don't take a trade in play EVER
And to finish off I bet people don't do this enough regarding stake size. Sometimes you will be less confident on a market and what will happen and sometimes you will be really confident what will happen. Do your stakes reflect this?? And as difficult as it is at the time try and remember you don't have to trade every market.
I can see where you are coming from Davangel but try if you can and really take on board what experienced people are telling you and accept these as truths and stop trying to find something that genuinely doesn't exist. When you get there you will understand that edges aren't what you thought they were (at present).
MANAGE MANAGE MANAGE!!!! Manage yourself, your strategies, your emotions.
This deserves a round of applause. Amazing stuff. Free too
You guys are brilliant btw and everything you are telling me im taking in......im probably looking for this elusive edge because i am failing and cant believe people are successful without some sort of magical edge...........i know firmly believe there is no magical edge, so now i can keep reading and experimenting with things and hopefully improve...........since i started again nearly a year ago i havent burst any bank, the reason being is that i have painful memories of doing it years ago when i used to take trades inplay....thanks again for everything guys
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
the biggest edge is surely matching own money?
Imagine as an example, just 2 people in the market. Player 1 has 100,000 pound bank and player 2 has 100 pound bank and no one else enters the marekt. Player 1 can sit and match his money backwards and forwards to create an impression of a market with nothing happening over multiple accounts. Player 2 enters a back or lay bet and the market moves against him. So he sells in panic or gambles. If he gambles backing a 10/1 shot for 10 pounds, the horse stays at 20s until the last furlong, and if looks like winning slowly moves in the price.
I would say that is the biggest edge the biggest players have?
Imagine as an example, just 2 people in the market. Player 1 has 100,000 pound bank and player 2 has 100 pound bank and no one else enters the marekt. Player 1 can sit and match his money backwards and forwards to create an impression of a market with nothing happening over multiple accounts. Player 2 enters a back or lay bet and the market moves against him. So he sells in panic or gambles. If he gambles backing a 10/1 shot for 10 pounds, the horse stays at 20s until the last furlong, and if looks like winning slowly moves in the price.
I would say that is the biggest edge the biggest players have?
Cheers Seahorse I liked your post too haha 
You can't beat speaking from life experience.
Another thing I was thinking Davangel is that you may be focusing on scalping too often.
In my opinion scalping can be very effective and I've made decent totals just from scalping. However I don't scalp markets too often, and at a guess the problem you may be facing is scalping markets that are more volatile than you want for scalping ideally and you could be getting shaken out of the market taking losses bigger than your profits.
In your stage of learning it could be a great idea trying to do some swing trading looking at the market and predicting if a horse is going to come in or go out as a "general trend" rather than a certain amount of ticks. I really think your approach to the market needs to be a bit more loose and open minded. Different price ranges have different tick increments and so saying this runner has moved 5 ticks and this runner has moved this many ticks etc is not really that important. You need to get a feel for the way the market behaves and that "feel" is crucial to your confidence which is crucial to your performance, (more than you realise).
You can't beat speaking from life experience.Another thing I was thinking Davangel is that you may be focusing on scalping too often.
In my opinion scalping can be very effective and I've made decent totals just from scalping. However I don't scalp markets too often, and at a guess the problem you may be facing is scalping markets that are more volatile than you want for scalping ideally and you could be getting shaken out of the market taking losses bigger than your profits.
In your stage of learning it could be a great idea trying to do some swing trading looking at the market and predicting if a horse is going to come in or go out as a "general trend" rather than a certain amount of ticks. I really think your approach to the market needs to be a bit more loose and open minded. Different price ranges have different tick increments and so saying this runner has moved 5 ticks and this runner has moved this many ticks etc is not really that important. You need to get a feel for the way the market behaves and that "feel" is crucial to your confidence which is crucial to your performance, (more than you realise).
1..I took the 2nd fav because ive been told not to trade favs until im more experienced and it looked fairly stable anyway
2...i entered the market when both prices were filled with roughly the same amount of money and the price hadnt been moving that much
3..i had to take a ticks loss because a small spike moved against me
4...i probably shouldve stopped 1 tick up
5...i only ever open 1 trade at a time as to me that is the most defensive way to do it
6...this was a normal trading result for me either 1 tick up or 1 tick down but i usually lose over the day because in 2 or 3 of the races the price will run through to the stop loss i set which is usually 7 or 8 ticks away
2...i entered the market when both prices were filled with roughly the same amount of money and the price hadnt been moving that much
3..i had to take a ticks loss because a small spike moved against me
4...i probably shouldve stopped 1 tick up
5...i only ever open 1 trade at a time as to me that is the most defensive way to do it
6...this was a normal trading result for me either 1 tick up or 1 tick down but i usually lose over the day because in 2 or 3 of the races the price will run through to the stop loss i set which is usually 7 or 8 ticks away
Decided that im gonna stop scalping......Renton i think youre right, i look at every race with a 3.0 fav as scalping opertunities for the other horses....im obviously useless at it i cant get out quick enough before a loss....i`ll try swing trading and when i get in i`ll dump some of my liability until im 5 or 6 ticks in profit then exit.......i`ll also set a stop loss for 3 or 4 ticks away....cheers for the help
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
I havent even watched the full video.
No need too. I am assuming you started recording as soon as you opened the market?
You started scalping as soon as you opened the market. You looked at the graphs went straight in. Observe the market. What if someone is manipulatin that graph? What if it looks like a steady market because there been no money matched. Sit there an watch it far longer.
Look I cant tell you everything what to do as this would be unfair to all the hard work everyone puts in.
You scalping is slow!! When you scalp that slow, when you close your position this is what happens you either lose or scratch. Think about it, the price has already moved. if it moves back your now only getting a scratch right? So rather then scratch it late you might aswell leave it a minute because if it takes your like scratch your probably make the 1 tick win. You should be closing that scalp before it moves. The way you were scalping youd made more money not even scratching. You have to scratch though!!!
Look at the money matched. You are scalping when there is 100k matched. So whats going to happen as soon as the money hits the market? Go back and read all the posts on this topic. Everyone ha already covered your problems.
No need too. I am assuming you started recording as soon as you opened the market?
You started scalping as soon as you opened the market. You looked at the graphs went straight in. Observe the market. What if someone is manipulatin that graph? What if it looks like a steady market because there been no money matched. Sit there an watch it far longer.
Look I cant tell you everything what to do as this would be unfair to all the hard work everyone puts in.
You scalping is slow!! When you scalp that slow, when you close your position this is what happens you either lose or scratch. Think about it, the price has already moved. if it moves back your now only getting a scratch right? So rather then scratch it late you might aswell leave it a minute because if it takes your like scratch your probably make the 1 tick win. You should be closing that scalp before it moves. The way you were scalping youd made more money not even scratching. You have to scratch though!!!
Look at the money matched. You are scalping when there is 100k matched. So whats going to happen as soon as the money hits the market? Go back and read all the posts on this topic. Everyone ha already covered your problems.
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
and reverse the ladder!
I'm sorry, there is no way on this planet you have been trading a year right?
Your having us on right?
I'm sorry, there is no way on this planet you have been trading a year right?
Your having us on right?
Thats not fair seahorse everyone takes different routes to success, someone that appears poor at trading after a year could easily end up being one of the best traders out there, a top trader called caan is one that was poor at trading in the first year.SeaHorseRacing wrote:and reverse the ladder!
I'm sorry, there is no way on this planet you have been trading a year right?
Your having us on right?
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
However, I have to disagree. there is sufficient evidence to suggest that you havent put enough work in.. Although you say you have been trading a year. How often do you trade?davangel wrote:1..I took the 2nd fav because ive been told not to trade favs until im more experienced and it looked fairly stable anyway
2...i entered the market when both prices were filled with roughly the same amount of money and the price hadnt been moving that much
3..i had to take a ticks loss because a small spike moved against me
4...i probably shouldve stopped 1 tick up
5...i only ever open 1 trade at a time as to me that is the most defensive way to do it
6...this was a normal trading result for me either 1 tick up or 1 tick down but i usually lose over the day because in 2 or 3 of the races the price will run through to the stop loss i set which is usually 7 or 8 ticks away
IMO your trading is not a years work.
1)Don't trade favs until more experienced? Who told you that baloney?
2) The price hadn't been moving very much because it was still waiting to sprout. the market was in the very early stages of its life.
3) I would have left it. You had support from the cross over and a wad of money supporting it. Look for support. its about the bigger picture.
4)Nope its about turnover. however I personally would not of scalped that way or early.
5)disagree, with a market like this, the spikes are what going to make it pay for you. adjust your risk and amount of stakes.
6) Stop loss 7/8 ticks away? why you should be out of it on a scratch. Unless a large order occurs and people latch on and follow it, if it reaches 7/8 ticks away you must be certain its coming back.
Seahorse why would i lie to you?...i have definately been scalping a year just cause im shit at it doesnt mean ive only been doing it 2 weeks..........seeing as Marko mentioned Caan...it is his videos that i purchased and ive spoken to him several times over the last year about everything.....ive spent hours watching markets and everything i do is what ive been told....youve summed it up im too slow.....surely this forum is for helping people then itll be up to me to decide if i have a future in trading or not....You say in the early days you lost £500 -£1000, ive never done that so does that mean im better than you, no it doesnt....Would you be able to post a video of one of the races tonight to give me pointers as ive only ever watched videos that were pre recorded...i`ll give you the race to trade if youre not doing anything...how about the 20.15 at Market Rasens which is a handicap with a 4.5 fav, if you cant it doesnt matter