Som feedback on the greening up calculation please

[marcvanderpeet12]

Dear all,

I'm doing some research into match results. Basically I want to check what's the chance that after a 1-0 standing the opponent "comes back" into the game. Because the odds of a team drop after a goal is scored against them my aim is to lay them low and then green up when 1-1 is scored (if this happens of course).

Lets say I have the hypothetical situation that 40% of the times that when a team is leading with 1-0 the opponent is able to equalize and the average drop in this segment goes from 1.4 (start) to 1.15 (back odds before equalizing goal) and then back to 1.4 (equalizing goal is scored).

Then I would have the situation that 40% of the times I can green up (giving me a x percent profit) and 60% of the times I loose.

Could anybody help me with a calculation of how I can determine which drops are necessary to make a profit. So I am looking for a format where I can insert the chances that a team equalizes (in my case 60 and 40%) and the drops that go with it (1.4 to 1.15).

Any help would be highly appreciated!

Cheers,
Marc