Back to Lay Calculations On The Ladder

[iambic_pentameter]

Hello

I've recently started using Bet Angel having migrated from Another software not quite sure how to do this.

I've identified Ripoll in the 2.40pm at Epsom today as a potential front runner.

Assuming I back him at 7.0, is there an easy way to work out where to place the lay bet on the following percentages:

30% lower
50% lower
100% lower

Many thanks

Iambic Pentameter

[Dallas]

A simple percentage calculator like this
http://www.percentagecalculator.net/

[Euler]

How can you go 100% lower?

If you have something at odds of 6.00 then dividing by 2 will get you 50% lower or odds of 3.00, which is the same as the IP%

[iambic_pentameter]

Thanks, Dallas.

[iambic_pentameter]

Hi Euler

Yes - well spotted re the 100% - my lack of sleep is showing!

[jimibt]

Hello

I've recently started using Bet Angel having migrated from Another software not quite sure how to do this.

I've identified Ripoll in the 2.40pm at Epsom today as a potential front runner.

Assuming I back him at 7.0, is there an easy way to work out where to place the lay bet on the following percentages:

30% lower
50% lower
100% lower

Many thanks

Iambic Pentameter

i'd say it's very possible that Ripoll could trade within the 30-50% band. a picture paints a 1000 words tho

ripoll.PNG

pacolita in the 15:15 at Epsom looks not too bad either:

pacolita.PNG

[iambic_pentameter]

Jimibt, that is a pair of very nice looking charts!

Do you mind me asking where you get the data from and how you get it into that format?

[jimibt]

Jimibt, that is a pair of very nice looking charts!

Do you mind me asking where you get the data from and how you get it into that format?

the data is taken directly from betfair historic data, saved in a database and then a backend process analyses it and then churns it out to the front end. this was all created by one of the members on this very forum, with tweaks by myself regards graphing and further metrics.

alas, it's not a public facing service, just one used internally to identify likely B2L candidates (and other anomalies). there are of course plenty of free services (such as winningwarlock etc) that offer this kind of thing too, but i find that it's only with tweaking and refining inhouse that you really start to get a clearer picture on how such candidates may play out (plus you can also put code in place to *learn* about why certain runners failed to hit certain thresholds when predicted).

here's a further good looking one for today, tho don't do anything obviously as this is purely for demo purposes (Rock On Bach Clonmel 2m Hcap Hrd 17:50)

rock on bach.PNG

[iambic_pentameter]

Hi Jimibit

Thanks for the reply and I've learnt something new today.

Where does one access the Betfair historical data from?

Good work on the data - hope it's nice and profitable for you.

Cheers,

Iambic Pentameter

[Euler]

There is some good data here: -

http://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices/

[Dallas]

Some more links in this thread
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=11883

[jimibt]

Hi Jimibit

Thanks for the reply and I've learnt something new today.

Where does one access the Betfair historical data from?

Good work on the data - hope it's nice and profitable for you.

Cheers,

Iambic Pentameter

exactly as pw mentions, the links on that page have all been hoovered up, back to 2009 and then there's a daily update applied. thereafter, it's just a matter of tweaking the internal logic to refocus things when unexpected events occur. thus far, it all works great and has had good success, but like anything, it's all down to how you blank out the noise!!

[iambic_pentameter]

Thanks for all the replies.

Mind currently blown!

[jimibt]

Thanks for all the replies.

Mind currently blown!

ok, i'll put an end to that, here comes a potential loser then [19:10 Chelmsford City ] (tho, on £50 stakes, easily green out on lots of these at £15)

kylla.PNG

[jimibt]

ok, final one of the day. poplar (chemlc -20:40), might do no harm on £50 with a £15 green out. just saying!! . tho it honestly is on the lower end of the scale that I would find risk free.

poplar.PNG