Back to Lay Calculations On The Ladder

[iambic_pentameter]

Thanks for the additional graphs, Jimibt.

My 'pay the bills' job prevented me from doing anything with it but certainly piqued my interest for the future.

Iambic Pentameter

[Ralphyboy]

Jimibt, that is a pair of very nice looking charts!

Do you mind me asking where you get the data from and how you get it into that format?

the data is taken directly from betfair historic data, saved in a database and then a backend process analyses it and then churns it out to the front end. this was all created by one of the members on this very forum, with tweaks by myself regards graphing and further metrics.

alas, it's not a public facing service, just one used internally to identify likely B2L candidates (and other anomalies). there are of course plenty of free services (such as winningwarlock etc) that offer this kind of thing too, but i find that it's only with tweaking and refining inhouse that you really start to get a clearer picture on how such candidates may play out (plus you can also put code in place to *learn* about why certain runners failed to hit certain thresholds when predicted).

here's a further good looking one for today, tho don't do anything obviously as this is purely for demo purposes (Rock On Bach Clonmel 2m Hcap Hrd 17:50)

rock on bach.PNG

Hi Jimmbit me and my friend are beginning our journey into trading the exchanges and have been on betangel a little over a week and found some fantastic posts so far, this one included this place is a real treasure trove if you put the time in.

I just stumbled on this thread a little over twenty minutes ago much to my delight as we are in the process of attempting exactly what you have all ready created.

We have downloaded the data-files and began the process of creating a database our initial intention was to find back to lay candidates via there BSP this seem an obvious starting point but your suggestion of tweaks and learning is very intriguing could you share anything with us where our time may be best spent developing this database.

[iambic_pentameter]

Hi Ralphyboy

I'm still very much a beginner but some advice I can offer re B2L:

Use sites such as Winning Warlock, Pacecards etc as potential front runners.

If you watch this video Peter Webb did, you can claim a free trial of Pacecards:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fkRZHWSmbc

Some other experienced traders may want to correct me if I am wrong on this, but don't stake too much incase the price goes against you or the lay side isn't matched. It's not a given that you can trade out for a loss / put a stop loss in as the market is (obviously) more volatile in play.

As a general overview, there is some really good stuff on here by users:

Jollygreen
Dallas
Mugsgame
Xitian
Oscar123

My own advice based on the last 3 months:

1) Do not trade if you are tired, dehydrated or not with it - it requires 100% concentration

2) Start small - £2 stakes to start off with. Sure, you may not make much initially, but you won't lose much either.

3) Give it time and remember that the top traders knew nothing when they started - forget about earning X per day and focus on learning the craft - the markets, the software, risk management and most importantly, self-discipline.

I know that if I trade every day, with the right mindset, money management and self-discipline, I will become a full time trader.

Iambic Pentameter

[iambic_pentameter]

Oh, and there is another user on here called Euler - worth looking at some of his posts, he seems to know what he is doing

[jimibt]

good advice above..

i'd also say, look for runners in the same race that may vie for the same pace as this could disrupt both's attempt. also, keep a weather eye on the track type, race distance that you are comparing the current candidate against - you may find that the runner has a sterling record everywhere, EXCEPT the current track. other than that, keep your own records of successes and why you picked one runner over and above another.

also, do not treat every trade as a DOB, settle instead for a good steady 15-20% return where you feel very confident (tho, if you are 110% confident, place a smaller stake but with a higher exit point) and don't place trades in the hope that the runner will contract their price quickly, some runners seem to take it right to the line before shortening significantly.

as for today, this one looks pretty good to me, especially at this price (could shorten a bit leading up to the race):

ethelwyn.PNG

[Crazyskier]

as for today, this one looks pretty good to me, especially at this price (could shorten a bit leading up to the race):

ethelwyn.PNG

Good job he did as he didn't shorten much from his SP, if at all.

[jimibt]

as for today, this one looks pretty good to me, especially at this price (could shorten a bit leading up to the race):

ethelwyn.PNG

Good job he did as he didn't shorten much from his SP, if at all.

yup, he was on the right side of -20% but even on the SP of 5.93, he looked like he'd have done at least a -35-40%. anyway, (for me), still worked out ok as i keep saying to folks, don't try for a DOB, aim for a smaller %age return...

here's an update on the same graph which includes the result from last night:

ethelwyn.PNG

as for today, there are quite a few, but this one caught my eye early on:

get knotted.PNG

trendsetter.PNG

[jimibt]

well, Trendsetter and Get Knotted both did well yesterday with results of:

Trendsetter: BSP:20.09, IPMIN:3.20, %age contraction:84%
Get Knotted: BSP:9.68, IPMIN:1.91, %age contraction:80%

so, can we manage the double double today??

ringside humor.PNG

[Dallas]

Some good calls their Jimibt WD

[jimibt]

Some good calls their Jimibt WD

cheers dallas - as i always say, keep it simple, keep it realistic. even tho both of these today hit > 50% IR, i was out by the 33% mark with a good safety margin to boot. in other words, use your data as a guide but treat it with suspicion and exit without being too greedy - repeat until bored . will post another few tmro as well!!

[ricardodeano]

Thought I'd save you the job Jim, please find attached today's best bets re. back to lay.

19092016.PNG

A brief explanation, in case I've missed Jim explaining my code:

Average BSP is quite obvious (if not, it's the average of the selections Betfair Starting Price)
APD is the Average Percentage Difference a selection has traded throughout his/her career
PD <-50% represents the Percentage Difference where a selection has traded below half of its Betfair SP in running.

So for example, Reaver is the best bet (apparently) having traded below 50% of it's SP 8 out of 10 times

Reaver.PNG

[jimibt]

Thought I'd save you the job Jim, please find attached today's best bets re. back to lay.

A brief explanation, in case I've missed Jim explaining my code:

Average BSP is quite obvious (if not, it's the average of the selections Betfair Starting Price)
APD is the Average Percentage Difference a selection has traded throughout his/her career
PD <-50% represents the Percentage Difference where a selection has traded below half of its Betfair SP in running.

So for example, Reaver is the best bet (apparently) having traded below 50% of it's SP 8 out of 10 times

cheers rich - you looks like there's a small selection to choose from today. the code that you put together is definitely a fab tool for getting to the heart of the matter. now just for the likes of me to screw it up by placing at the wrong time and missing the highest sp

[jimibt]

two that look fair game today:

Gowanauthat.PNG

sandagte.PNG

cheers again rich

[iambic_pentameter]

Nice work Rich, Jimibt.

Quick question if I may, Jimibt.

A book I've read (Braddocks Complete Guide to Horse Selection) mentions that it's sometimes worth avoiding horses who've not run for over 28 days - I note from the two above that these fall into that category.

Without giving all your secrets away, would you say this is good advice?

[jimibt]

Nice work Rich, Jimibt.

Quick question if I may, Jimibt.

A book I've read (Braddocks Complete Guide to Horse Selection) mentions that it's sometimes worth avoiding horses who've not run for over 28 days - I note from the two above that these fall into that category.

Without giving all your secrets away, would you say this is good advice?

it's a mixed bag tbh. a horse could have run excessively over the past 3 months and fall inside the 28 day category and be fit to fall. on the reverse, a horse may not have raced for 60 days but is totally match ready and fresh. so, it's a balance between the in running stats/averages and looking sensibly at the gaps between races and making a decision based on a kind of gut feel. i'll be honest, i hadn't even noticed that these two fell inside the 28 day window, but the gaps between races and the consistency is what caught my attention here. that said, i've seen many of these fail to fulfill the expectation on the day despite ticking all the boxes - but at least having something to differentiate from the others is a good start.