Stalls Day!
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andyfuller
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Don't know about a value lay, yesterday we had one run loose and drift a fair bit and then go on to win. But the market will react by pushing the price out if a horse is playing up. It is a bit like the Curley situation, everyone expects it to move so everyone piles in causing the move in turn you can often get huge over reactions and get the move both ways.
However, by its very nature this type of move may sometimes not be realised as the horse may not end up racing.
However, by its very nature this type of move may sometimes not be realised as the horse may not end up racing.
Thanks Andy
Do you think, then, that it may be a value back, once the market assumes that the horse hasn't got a hope, and rushes to grab some free money?
Jeff
Do you think, then, that it may be a value back, once the market assumes that the horse hasn't got a hope, and rushes to grab some free money?
Jeff
andyfuller wrote:Don't know about a value lay, yesterday we had one run loose and drift a fair bit and then go on to win. But the market will react by pushing the price out if a horse is playing up. It is a bit like the Curley situation, everyone expects it to move so everyone piles in causing the move in turn you can often get huge over reactions and get the move both ways.
However, by its very nature this type of move may sometimes not be realised as the horse may not end up racing.
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andyfuller
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I would say it very much is a case by case basis - you would need to assess how the horse is playing up. Sometimes a horse might drop its jockey on the way to the start for example and just hack down doing nothing more than what it would have done anyway - the market will react and push the price out, largely by traders imo then the backers might come in as they will know the horse hasn't really done anything out of the ordinary and will take the value prices in turn causing the market to correct.
On the other hand it could drop its jockey and go flat out down to the start getting in a muck sweat and continue to play up and get itself in a bad state.
Therefore I think it is down to how you interpret what has happened, another one I think that the market massively over reacts to is a horse playing up a little in the stalls.
One thing is for sure I wouldn't be looking for value/over reactions blindly.
It is one area where a persons knowledge of horses can have a big impact on how you play it.
On the other hand it could drop its jockey and go flat out down to the start getting in a muck sweat and continue to play up and get itself in a bad state.
Therefore I think it is down to how you interpret what has happened, another one I think that the market massively over reacts to is a horse playing up a little in the stalls.
One thing is for sure I wouldn't be looking for value/over reactions blindly.
It is one area where a persons knowledge of horses can have a big impact on how you play it.
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andyfuller
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Good example of an over reaction to nothing much there in the 16.00 at Sedgefield.
Hasper had to have its noseband changed as it had broken. They were running late so likely it was all done in a rush which would have unsettled the horse a little. They were rushing to get out on the track and the horse took a few steps side ways and threw its head around a bit. Nothing much really at all.
The price shot out as people reacted to basically nothing and then the horse cantered away and the price came back in. A good example of how you can take advantage of both moves, up and down.
Hasper had to have its noseband changed as it had broken. They were running late so likely it was all done in a rush which would have unsettled the horse a little. They were rushing to get out on the track and the horse took a few steps side ways and threw its head around a bit. Nothing much really at all.
The price shot out as people reacted to basically nothing and then the horse cantered away and the price came back in. A good example of how you can take advantage of both moves, up and down.
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andyfuller
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Good example of this today in the 17.05 the fav bolted and ended up not racing - I was late turning to the market and missed the best of the move but still managed to build a decent position only for the horse not to run - oh well always next time.andyfuller wrote:However, by its very nature this type of move may sometimes not be realised as the horse may not end up racing.
I am sure plenty of people who were on it from the start would have got some nice 4 figure positions easily enough.
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One of those times when the right decision for the sport but it cost me a packet 
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Two interseting points to note on this:
1. There was a delay in the drift really to start gathering momentum of between 30-60 secs from when the horse bolted
and
2. The price bounced back in from 6.4 to 3.8 (before drifting again) even though the horse was still on the way to Cambridge at the time!
Both of these demonstrate how many people don't use live pictures.
.Two interseting points to note on this:
1. There was a delay in the drift really to start gathering momentum of between 30-60 secs from when the horse bolted
and
2. The price bounced back in from 6.4 to 3.8 (before drifting again) even though the horse was still on the way to Cambridge at the time!
Both of these demonstrate how many people don't use live pictures.
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andyfuller
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I think that was caused by people exiting positions then people jumping on the move then when the horse came over the hill it went to the stalls as if it was going to run so people started laying again.Stewart wrote:2. The price bounced back in from 6.4 to 3.8 (before drifting again) even though the horse was still on the way to Cambridge at the time!
Thats how I would explain those moves.
Must admit I got out of jail on this race, I was watching RUK when the horse hit the fence so got stuck in right from the beginning. I had layed several times as the price drifted and so I stupidly selected 'net stake' to exit, as I did this the price came in a little and in a moment of madness I double clicked on the price and in effect opened my position again but this time in the wrong direction. I got out eventually but managed to turn a nice green into a gut wrenching red, thankfully they pulled the horse......lesson learned...
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andyfuller
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Another good example there at Windsor of a reaction to noting much. Big Mac was interviewing the Victor Chandler rep on ATR and he asked him for his 'bizmark' for the night. He didn't seem to have much of an opinion and then decided on the fav in the next race. I circled the mark at which he gave his view....the horse won!
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andyfuller
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Another great example of people reacting to a load of rubbish - Dave Nevison says I wouldn't be too hpapy with the fav going down with its mouth open 
I would agree with him if it was fighting the jockey, pulling and trying to go faster than it should but it was happily hacking down.
Presenters seem to love to make something out of nothing these days - Lydia Hislop would be the worse for it imo.
I would agree with him if it was fighting the jockey, pulling and trying to go faster than it should but it was happily hacking down.
Presenters seem to love to make something out of nothing these days - Lydia Hislop would be the worse for it imo.