I thought I had this sussed, but now I'm not sure. I don't use a reversed book (can't get my head round that yet), so it's just a straightforward ladder. Whenever I pay attention to the weight of money, the price "appears" to go the other way from what I thought the WOM was telling me, so I just need to double check this with someone please.
Example image from tonights Belgium Spain match
The WOM above the pink column is 14% and I would have thought this suggested the proce should drift, but as I watched it, the price shortened, and for a good 5 seconds or so it carried on shortening, all the while the WOM was between 10 and 20%
So, is a low number above the pink column an indication that the price will shorten or lengthen ?
Thanks
Still can't get this weight of money thing
The WOM looks at the money waiting at the 3 prices either side of the current odds but should'nt be used as a true indicator of price direction at all times.
Some people will purposely put large sums outside the price to distort the WOM usually to try and trigger bots who are using this as a condtion.
ie, If some one wanted their lay to be matched at 2.66,2.64 they could put a back bet of £10K @ 2.72 (not wanting to be matched) but it will put the WOM on that side to around 95% - looking at the other money on the ladder this would stick out like a saw thumb and most live traders would not react to it but it may trigger some bots to then jump in on the back side and take their waiting lay bets, once these are taken the back money is pulled and the price drifts.
Some people will purposely put large sums outside the price to distort the WOM usually to try and trigger bots who are using this as a condtion.
ie, If some one wanted their lay to be matched at 2.66,2.64 they could put a back bet of £10K @ 2.72 (not wanting to be matched) but it will put the WOM on that side to around 95% - looking at the other money on the ladder this would stick out like a saw thumb and most live traders would not react to it but it may trigger some bots to then jump in on the back side and take their waiting lay bets, once these are taken the back money is pulled and the price drifts.
OK, yes I get that part of it (but a good reminder), and I'm only using the weight of money as 1 factor of many, but the question was more if the WOM above the pink column is below 50, then the price theoretically should go out, and if the WOM above the pink column is over 50, then the price should shorten. That's the bit I just wanted to be sure of.
Yes in a theoretical world the WOM here is showing much more wanting to lay (86% left column) rather than back so price should start to drift.scesc wrote:if the WOM above the pink column is below 50, then the price theoretically should go out, and if the WOM above the pink column is over 50, then the price should shorten. That's the bit I just wanted to be sure of.
the numbers in the blue column (confusingly, the back column) is actually the %age WOM on lays. therefore, in this scenario, the 86% represents a potential drift about to occur in the price.
again as both dallas and pw have stated, all is not what it seems at times, so this number is not the *be all* and *end all* - literally just a prompt to examine the market more carefully for weird and wonderfuls. that said, if there are no weirdies, then anything inside 10-25% (14% in your scenario) up/down can be quite compelling.
again as both dallas and pw have stated, all is not what it seems at times, so this number is not the *be all* and *end all* - literally just a prompt to examine the market more carefully for weird and wonderfuls. that said, if there are no weirdies, then anything inside 10-25% (14% in your scenario) up/down can be quite compelling.
Here is a link to a thread on using reversed book and how to understand the difference which might helpscesc wrote:I don't use a reversed book (can't get my head round that yet)
viewtopic.php?f=47&t=12253
I've recently started spoofing on a regular basis
So many bots are active now, and invariably WOM is a major trigger for them
It's good fun making them place bets that they shouldn't.
I make no apologies for that, this is a game and nobody said we had to play fair, because BF certainly don't
So many bots are active now, and invariably WOM is a major trigger for them
It's good fun making them place bets that they shouldn't.
I make no apologies for that, this is a game and nobody said we had to play fair, because BF certainly don't
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
Its actually not a game but as you say, sometimes you have to just join them. Certain markets with a directional bias to them its certainly worth sticking a spoof bit of money in to support your position i find.LeTiss 4pm wrote:I've recently started spoofing on a regular basis
So many bots are active now, and invariably WOM is a major trigger for them
It's good fun making them place bets that they shouldn't.
I make no apologies for that, this is a game and nobody said we had to play fair, because BF certainly don't
Thanks. That does help a lotDallas wrote:Here is a link to a thread on using reversed book and how to understand the difference which might help
viewtopic.php?f=47&t=12253
Those of you that spoof, have you had any bad experiences? For example the market moving against you so quickly that your spoof money is taken by someone. On the surface (provided one has the necessary funds) it would appear as though spoofing could be a very useful strategy. There must however be a downside to it, I imagine your not going to fool experienced traders, but I'm sure bots could easily be triggered into what you want them to do.