What percentage horse win?

[eminbe]

What is the percentage for a horse to loss if its odds reach 1.15 and 1.10?

Please provide with any website reference.

Thanks in advance.

[jimibt]

from a database that i've just queried of all results from 2011 til now, there are:

82231 runners that hit 1.10 and went on to win
9249 runners that hit 1.15 and went on to lose
5071 runners that hit 1.10 and went on to lose

so, about 6.16% of runners that hit 1.10 then go onto lose and 11.25% that hit 1.15. the trick is in finding that 6-12% and exploiting it. also, remember that not all races have a clean finish on 1.01, there are quite a few that finish with odds straddling 2-3 as well.

[eminbe]

from a database that i've just queried of all results from 2011 til now, there are:

82231 runners that hit 1.10 and went on to win
9249 runners that hit 1.15 and went on to lose
5071 runners that hit 1.10 and went on to lose

so, about 6.16% of runners that hit 1.10 then go onto lose and 11.25% that hit 1.15. the trick is in finding that 6-12% and exploiting it. also, remember that not all races have a clean finish on 1.01, there are quite a few that finish with odds straddling 2-3 as well.

Thanks for the info, does it ever happen once daily odds 1.10 and 1.15 lose?

[jimibt]

from a database that i've just queried of all results from 2011 til now, there are:

82231 runners that hit 1.10 and went on to win
9249 runners that hit 1.15 and went on to lose
5071 runners that hit 1.10 and went on to lose

so, about 6.16% of runners that hit 1.10 then go onto lose and 11.25% that hit 1.15. the trick is in finding that 6-12% and exploiting it. also, remember that not all races have a clean finish on 1.01, there are quite a few that finish with odds straddling 2-3 as well.

Thanks for the info, does it ever happen once daily odds 1.10 and 1.15 lose?

tbh - it varies, you can sometimes see 3 or 4, then maybe only one on occasion, so just need to monitor it.

[iambic_pentameter]

Hello again, Jimibit

Out of interest, and if it isn't too much trouble, does your data tell you how many horses hit 1.3 and then went on to win / lose?

[jimibt]

Hello again, Jimibit

Out of interest, and if it isn't too much trouble, does your data tell you how many horses hit 1.3 and then went on to win / lose?

yup, sure:

83135 winners hit 1.3
20388 losers hit 1.3

so, that gives a %age of 24.52% - that is worth taking note of. if i were creating a rule based on this, i'd monitor ANY runner that hits 1.3 and then spins out to 2*odds. from there, i'd then measure if it goes beyond that. somewhere in that dusky cosmos, i'd consider placing a lay at th the lowest odds available < 2.5... anyway!! tho in truth, you'd need a (almost) 100% success rate to make the 5% difference between 1.3 odds and the gain of 24.52%..

[shakespeare]

83135 winners hit 1.3
20388 losers hit 1.3

so, that gives a %age of 24.52%

That's just what you expect from an efficient market. The probability of a horse priced at 1.3 winning is 1/1.3, which is 77%, so the losing probability is 23%. Your data confirms this to a statistically significant level. (It also means that you don't really need the database to answer this kind of question. )

[eminbe]

from a database that i've just queried of all results from 2011 til now, there are:

82231 runners that hit 1.10 and went on to win
9249 runners that hit 1.15 and went on to lose
5071 runners that hit 1.10 and went on to lose

so, about 6.16% of runners that hit 1.10 then go onto lose and 11.25% that hit 1.15. the trick is in finding that 6-12% and exploiting it. also, remember that not all races have a clean finish on 1.01, there are quite a few that finish with odds straddling 2-3 as well.

If its not too much trouble
How many favourite runners that hit 1.15, 1.10 and 1.05 odds lose and win?

[jimibt]

1.15: 82773 won 10004 lost = 12.08%
1.10: 82401 won 6099 lost = 7.4%
1.05: 81785 won 3297 lost = 4.03%

hope these help, factor in commission and they tally to the market efficiency for the respective odds.

[workpeter]

You can build your own database from free betfair price dumps
https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices/index.php

[ShaunWhite]

You can build your own database from free betfair price dumps
https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices/index.php

That's something I hadn't found workpeter, thanks.

It looks like I've got a lot of 'right-click, save as' to do !

Any idea where I can find this in one file ?

[Dallas]

This thread from LinusP has a number of links to various other types of data avavlible
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=11883

[LinusP]

Here is a dump of 2016:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/j6ny5q73ec4qm ... A.csv?dl=0

Few extra columns parsed out as well.

[eminbe]

1.15: 82773 won 10004 lost = 12.08%
1.10: 82401 won 6099 lost = 7.4%
1.05: 81785 won 3297 lost = 4.03%

hope these help, factor in commission and they tally to the market efficiency for the respective odds.

Thanks for the info lose rate is too low..

If its not to much trouble can your database/spreadsheet get:
How many runners win/loss, if they was first, second or third favourites at the start of a race?

[jimibt]

1.15: 82773 won 10004 lost = 12.08%
1.10: 82401 won 6099 lost = 7.4%
1.05: 81785 won 3297 lost = 4.03%

hope these help, factor in commission and they tally to the market efficiency for the respective odds.

Thanks for the info lose rate is too low..

If its not to much trouble can your database/spreadsheet get:
How many runners win/loss, if they was first, second or third favourites at the start of a race?

without quite a dedicated session to mine the data, it's not that straightfwd. given free time, i'll look into it. unfortunately, the %ages do match consistently with the efficiency of the market. any strategy that you employ to take advantage of market inefficiencies will have to be very tight and will more than likely need to juggle in realtime, the friction between opposing runner prices.