Hello boys.
can some one help me please.
i have a sample size of 300 (i know its not enough) games where there is a high strike rate of over 2,5 ,im trying to work out an average price of over 2.5 so i can do some calculations and see how profitable it is,i know it wont be spot on .but it will give me an idea how its performing.
thanks in advance
Marc
AVERAGE PRICE OF OVER 2.5
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Dublin_Flyer
- Posts: 846
- Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am
It could vary a lot by the league you're looking at.
I've compiled the results from the past 10 seasons from a number of leagues to compare correct score odds to true/actual odds over the previous 10 seasons.
French Ligue 1 2006/7-2015/16
Over 2.5: 1641/3800
%age: 43%
Odds: 2.32
German Bundesliga 2006/7-2015/16
Over 2.5: 1694/3060
%age: 55%
Odds: 1.81
They're the upper and lower of the leagues I've done so far but it's quite a difference.
Granted previous history is no sign of future performance, but if you look at most leagues there's always a few at the top of the table consistently, and a few strugglers, a couple of teams ascending and a couple descending, so the averages should be thereabouts unless there's a massive influx of talent/cash into a number of clubs to skew the bell curve. My theory anyway!
Testing a few automations on dutching different leagues correct scores at the moment, I'll try get them uploaded over the weekend if I'm able. Could be useful for someone to play around with or spark a brainwave in someone.
I've compiled the results from the past 10 seasons from a number of leagues to compare correct score odds to true/actual odds over the previous 10 seasons.
French Ligue 1 2006/7-2015/16
Over 2.5: 1641/3800
%age: 43%
Odds: 2.32
German Bundesliga 2006/7-2015/16
Over 2.5: 1694/3060
%age: 55%
Odds: 1.81
They're the upper and lower of the leagues I've done so far but it's quite a difference.
Granted previous history is no sign of future performance, but if you look at most leagues there's always a few at the top of the table consistently, and a few strugglers, a couple of teams ascending and a couple descending, so the averages should be thereabouts unless there's a massive influx of talent/cash into a number of clubs to skew the bell curve. My theory anyway!
Testing a few automations on dutching different leagues correct scores at the moment, I'll try get them uploaded over the weekend if I'm able. Could be useful for someone to play around with or spark a brainwave in someone.
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Dublin_Flyer
- Posts: 846
- Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am
Just compiled it myself from the score grids on the wiki page of each season, copied to excel and used CountIf to tally the totals.
The odds are the actual odds on previous history, so Any Other Draw has occurred just the once in the Spanish Liga but 9 times in the Premier League equating to 3800/1 and 3800/9 or 3800 and 422.2 respectively.
The odds are the actual odds on previous history, so Any Other Draw has occurred just the once in the Spanish Liga but 9 times in the Premier League equating to 3800/1 and 3800/9 or 3800 and 422.2 respectively.
Wow Dublin awesome post and very interesting reading .. any chance you can post the formula table so I can do a analysis on the Dutch and German leagues and maybe even Turkish as from what I've seen there is a few goals scored there as well
Thanks again
Thanks again
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Dublin_Flyer
- Posts: 846
- Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am
Sorry for the delay Faldo, had them done separately but compiled the leagues into one spreadsheet.
Dutch and German leagues do seem to have the highest ratio of over 2.5 and over 3.5, closely followed by the Belgians.
The Turkish league is bang on 50/50 for 2.5's but in real time it was in favour of unders by a few games. Those delightful peace loving Turks decided to throw darts, fireworks, rocks etc at the opponents while the game was under 2.5 so the game was abandoned and the away side awarded a 3-0 win by the FA. 5 times this happened!
Dutch and German leagues do seem to have the highest ratio of over 2.5 and over 3.5, closely followed by the Belgians.
The Turkish league is bang on 50/50 for 2.5's but in real time it was in favour of unders by a few games. Those delightful peace loving Turks decided to throw darts, fireworks, rocks etc at the opponents while the game was under 2.5 so the game was abandoned and the away side awarded a 3-0 win by the FA. 5 times this happened!
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Djangounchained
- Posts: 1
- Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2016 2:59 pm
This is a really big hearted. I also downloaded a copy from your tacit permission. Thank you, Dublin. Cheers, Django
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Crazyskier
- Posts: 1296
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
Dublin_Flyer wrote:Sorry for the delay Faldo, had them done separately but compiled the leagues into one spreadsheet.
Dutch and German leagues do seem to have the highest ratio of over 2.5 and over 3.5, closely followed by the Belgians.
The Turkish league is bang on 50/50 for 2.5's but in real time it was in favour of unders by a few games. Those delightful peace loving Turks decided to throw darts, fireworks, rocks etc at the opponents while the game was under 2.5 so the game was abandoned and the away side awarded a 3-0 win by the FA. 5 times this happened!
Thanks for the link Dublin. Most kind.